The New York Knicks officially have a third-quarter problem. And not only is it costing them games, but it’s increasing the difficulty level of their wins.
After losing the third quarter by 11 points to the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night, the Knicks have now been outscored in six consecutive penultimate frames. For good measure, they have been outpaced by their opponents in seven of their past eight third quarters overall. Their December 21 nail-biter against the Miami Heat is the lone exception.
During this stretch, New York is minus-35 in third quarters. That is…the worst mark in the entire league.
Struggles abound at both ends of the floor. The offense has been inconsistent. Jalen Brunson is shooting under 42 percent on two-pointers (10-of-24). OG Anunoby’s three-ball is living in the gutter (3-of-11). Mikal Bridges has been wildly inconsistent—punctuated by a dearth of pressure on the basket, and tons of settling.
Don’t even go down the defensive rabbit hole. It’s not pretty. That wasn’t the problem, specifically, against the Hawks. But opponents were shooting over 41 percent on triples against the Knicks in the third quarter entering Friday night.
It’s no coincidence that New York has gone just 4-4 over this eight-game pocket. And while rough patches are part and parcel of an 82-tilt schedule, the fallout may be even starker than the raw results suggest.
The Knicks’ margin for error is waning
All of this must be presented with the caveat that New York isn’t currently at its healthiest. Josh Hart has not played since Christmas. Mitchell Robinson has missed the past three games. Karl-Antony Towns did not play against the Hawks, and the Knicks’ shot quality from beyond the arc suffered as a result.
Yet, these third-quarter woes predate the relative gutting of New York’s rotation. Some of it can be chalked up to experimenting with different lineups, and making a concerted effort to give reps to young players.
Apportion blame however you like. Wins are getting harder to eke out thanks to these third-quarter warts.
Consistently losing those 12 minutes puts added pressure on the Knicks to bring the boomstick in the fourth quarter. That is not only exhausting. It obliterates their margin for error. Not one of New York’s past five victories has come by more than seven points. Just four teams have a lower point differential in wins over this same span.
This isn’t the end of the world, but the Knicks can’t ignore it
Make no bones about it, the Knicks are going to be fine. They will win 50-plus games. They will finish with a top-two record in the East. This is a really good team, with the potential to be a great team.
But this habit of deviating from scrappiness, particularly at the defensive end, and then trying to claw out victories down the stretch has to end Close games can be entertaining. They are also draining. And thinner margins open you up to more losses.
We should not discount the mounting absences. The Knicks’ top-seven players have missed nearly 50 combined games. But this is more than that. A lion’s share of the minutes during this third-quarter downswing have been populated by a majority of their preferred starters.
What we’re watching lately isn’t just a symptom of bad luck, or the quality of competition. It’s self-sabotage—temporary probably, but self-sabotage all the same.