The Roberson Rule, coined by Seth Partnow after Andre Roberson, states that a reluctant shooter could make 100 percent of their 3-point attempts, and as long as they did not increase their volume, teams would be correct not to guard them at the perimeter.
We see this happen with hesitant shooters in the NBA quite often. Russell Westbrook is a great example. In two playoff games with the Denver Nuggets this postseason, Westbrook has attempted 12 threes. On those 12 3-point attempts, his closest defender has been an average of 9.8 feet away, which is the third-greatest distance out of the 59 players who have attempted at least 5 threes these playoffs.
— bk (@vidaudio45) April 22, 2025
Westbrook has hit 41.7 percent of those threes, well above his regular season average of 32.3 percent. If Westbrook can continue to drain these open shots at a high clip, the defense will eventually have to respect him more. More importantly, though, he must continue to take these open shots.
Teams are using the Roberson Rule with Josh Hart
Josh Hart has only attempted three 3-pointers over his first two playoff games, or 2.1 per 100 possessions. During the regular season Hart attempted 4.3 threes per 100 possessions, so his volume has been down through the start of this first round.
Hart's reluctance to shoot allows his defenders to significantly sag off of him, which in turn allows that defender to clog lanes or double ball handlers. As can be seen in the clip below, Ausar Thompson leaves Hart on an island to stop a Jalen Brunson drive. Although Hart missed the three, at least he took it.
— bk (@vidaudio45) April 22, 2025
It isn't the misses, it is the lack of attempts
As far as being guarded, Hart's closest defender has been an average of seven feet away. If he continues to be an unwilling shooter, that distance should only increase. It will become paramount that Hart at least attempts the open looks he gets. If he fails to do so, it will become an afterthought for defenders to abandon him and double elsewhere.
The greatest concerns are plays like the one in the clip below, where Hart passes up an open look in the corner to drive into the paint. In this case, while it is occupied by three of his own teammates.
— bk (@vidaudio45) April 22, 2025
Tom Thibodeau seems to have made it clear that he trusts Hart more than any shooting-threat on his bench. So the responsibility now falls on Hart to make his teammates' jobs easier by taking the open looks that fall his way.