A nuanced analysis of the Obi Toppin Knicks-Pacers trade
By Max Hoover
Over the weekend, the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers announced the finalized version of their trade involving one-time ‘Bocker Obi Toppin. The Knicks received a second-round pick in the 2028 and 2029 NBA drafts in exchange for the former No. 8 overall draft pick.
Nuance is dead, and social media killed it.
Since this trade was finalized, nay announced, nay rumored, the Twitter takes have been anything but middle-of-the-road. One group of Knicks fans view Toppin as another Knicks draft bust, while the other views him as a future multi-time All-Star victimized by Julius Randle and Tom Thibodeau.
The Obi Toppin trade has polarized New York Knicks fans
The fact is that both sides have elements of truth. And boy, there is no online argument quite like one between two viewpoints that are both kind of right.
Let’s begin with the draft bust side. There are two crucial elements to consider here as we analyze this trade.
The first is a lesson in NBA draft history. Historically, the No. 8 pick in the NBA draft is a graveyard of cursed selections. What’s worse? “No one has contributed to this streak of futility more than the Knicks,” according to Daniel Joyaux in an article for The Ringer.
Toppin is just another in a long line of players selected eighth overall who never quite broke through the ceiling of being a serviceable role player. However, while we’re speaking honestly, the warning signs were there before the Knicks selected him.
Toppin dropped from his pre-draft projections, where the Knicks had considered trading up to draft the Dayton standout as early as fifth overall. Knicks brass has got to be thanking their lucky stars that a trade wasn’t necessary.
There were warning signs with Obi Toppin from as early as draft night
The why starts to get to the second reason the bust crowd is right. Put bluntly, Toppin has been a net-neutral player throughout his career. He has a career BPM of 0.5, per Basketball Reference. Net-neutral is not bad, but it feels disappointing for a top-ten pick. (Especially when contrasted to Randle’s 2.1 BPM with the Knicks.)
The book on Toppin to this point, which his numbers support, is that he has a limited offensive ceiling and can be a defensive liability.
However, here is where the Toppin never got a fair shake crowd is correct. How can we truly know his ceiling when he has played so few minutes? Dating back to the 2010 NBA Draft, no No. 8 overall pick played fewer minutes in their first three years than Toppin.
Even worse, Toppin has the second-most Win Shares per 48 minutes on that same list of players. This comes despite often playing most of his limited minutes in a role that did not fit his skill set.
Obi Toppin was never used correctly during his tenure with the Knicks
This brings us to the final question of this discussion: did New York extract max value in their haul back from Indiana? Again, there’s nuance to that answer as well.
Looking solely at his on-court production, the answer has to be yes. No competent NBA front office could rationalize trading an unprotected first-round pick for what we have seen on the court.
And yet, it’s hard to argue that we have genuinely seen everything Toppin can be in his limited minutes. It’s fair to say that the Knicks mismanaged him from an asset perspective.
Nuance is vital in all things. A conversation around Obi Toppin’s Knick tenure is no exception.
