Why is Tom Thibodeau benching Obi Toppin as Julius Randle struggles?

Once it became clear that the New York Knicks weren’t going to trade Julius Randle during the offseason, one of the biggest questions entering the new season was whether or not the 27-year-old forward would be able to accept a new role. And guess what? Randle looked like a different player to start the year, but over the past few games, he’s shown more and more flashes of the player that he was in previous seasons.

We saw how Randle’s play affected the Knicks last season, but more specifically, we saw how it impacted Obi Toppin’s development. New York’s No. 8 pick in the 2020 draft spent his first two seasons playing behind Randle, who had a superb 2020-21 season that lead to a four-year extension (that just kicked in this season).

Tom Thibodeau’s job could be at stake if he continues to ignore Obi Toppin’s positive play

In Obi’s rookie season which coincided with Randle’s breakout season, he averaged 11 minutes per game. Last season during Randle’s regression, he averaged 17.1 minutes. When Randle was out at the end of the season, Thibodeau had no choice but to turn to Toppin, and the results were in Obi’s favor. Overall, in games that Toppin played in without Randle in 2021-22, he averaged 20.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists.

That brings us back to Randle, whose previous four games have looked a lot different than his first three. He’s averaging 15 points off 35.2% shooting from the field and 0% shooting from the three-point line in an average of 33.4 minutes per game. Yes, that stat is correct. He’s also shooting a poor 68.8% from the free throw line.

Let’s look at Toppin’s scoring stats from the previous four contests. He’s averaging 10.3 points off 48.5% shooting from the field and 50% shooting from deep in an average of 15.9 minutes. Better yet, Obi had 33 field goal attempts in comparison to Randle’s 55.

Here’s a comparison of their per 36 numbers:

That alone should be enough to stick out to Thibodeau, but let’s remember who we’re talking about. In Wednesday’s loss to Atlanta, Thibs pulled Toppin in the second quarter to put Randle in with 5:48 left to play. Keep in mind that was after Obi had scored 10 points and impacted the game with his energy, like usual. When Randle re-entered the game, he missed two shots, one free throw, and committed one turnover. He scored one point in almost six minutes of play. New York held a 17-point lead (51-34) when Toppin left the game, but the Knicks finished the half with a 65-57 lead.

It wasn’t until there was 4:11 left to play in the third quarter that Thibodeau finally decided to sub Toppin in for Randle, but at that point, New York was down 78-71.

Randle finished with 14 points (4-for-12), six rebounds, four turnovers, two assists, and one block in 30 minutes. Toppin finished with 12 points (5-for-13) and three rebounds in 18 minutes.

Thibodeau has said time and time again that players have to earn their minutes, so it’d be interesting to hear his reasoning behind not playing Toppin more. Sure, it might look bad to bench the player that’s making $23.8 million this season in place of someone that’s making $5.4 million, but Obi has been the better player.

The Knicks recently picked up Toppin’s $6.8 million option for 2023-24 and he’ll soon be eligible to sign an extension. There’s been a rumor going around about New York possibly looking to trade Obi this season, but that better be nothing more than a rumor. If the Knicks trade Toppin in favor of Randle, it’d be a step back for the organization. However, it’d be better for Obi, who would surely get the playing time that he deserves elsewhere.

Thibodeau’s been around the game for a long time, but his stubbornness continues to get the best of him. Toppin is right in front of him, but yet he continues to be overlooked. Either Thibs needs to come to his senses, or the front office needs to think about moving forward in a different direction.

The bottom line is that Obi Toppin deserves better.

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