A non-clinical examination of Julius Randle and his 2021-22 Knicks campaign

The weirdness of “Good Randle” vs. “Bad Randle”

I’ll be honest, I am floored after having researched for this slide because of how close some of Randle’s split stats for the 2021-22 season were. I guess it is fitting that Randle’s season was so bizarre that even the numbers can’t give us a straight answer as to why that was the case.

Regardless, there are still some interesting stats that validate some of what I and other fans picked up on watching him play. These numbers hold a mirror up to circumstances that reflect “Good” and “Bad” Randle.

A lot of this seems to hinge on Randle’s performance at home versus on the road. Yes, the Knicks as a whole had a disgusting 17-24 home record, but there are numbers to back up Randle being a better road performer.

In the 26 games this season in which Randle scored 24+ points per game, 16 of those were away games. Also, in games in which he scored 30+, eight of those 14 matchups were on opponents’ courts.

When looking specifically at his shooting splits in home versus away games, Randle was a bit more efficient on the road. It is a slight difference, but numbers don’t lie, Randle performed worse in MSG from an efficiency standpoint.

Now let’s dive a little deeper. How else was Randle specifically better as a guest in another team’s arena?

In 28 games (for 1/3 of the season), he shot 37.5% or worse from the field. He shot in the 20s in 10 games and in the teens five times. And wouldn’t you know it, 16 of those games (57%) happened at home.

So, the stats above suggest that Randle may have felt the pressure playing in front of the Knicks faithful who were often justifiably upset with his play. And they let him know it.

Next, let’s go over when, and maybe why, Randle plays well. He was his best against the Brooklyn Nets, Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors, and Denver Nuggets in 2021-22 in 11 total contests. Why is this significant?

Well, this seems like a mostly random group of teams. But there is one way in which these teams may intersect and it speaks to the larger theme of this article; Randle’s play weighs heavily on his mental state.

For one thing, all of these teams play on the West Coast, with the exception of the Nets. Did you know that Randle averaged his best stat lines against the Pacific Division? He had 24/10/4 on 47/41/90 with by far his best true shooting percentage of 57.4%.

Last season, Randle also played very well against the Kings, Lakers, and Nets. The Lakers were his first team, and Randle asked LA to renounce his rights so he could sign with New Orleans in 2018.

The Nets are the Knicks’ crosstown rival, so does Randle get hyped up to play them? Is it because he’s looking to win NYC fans’ approval? I couldn’t tell you why Randle does so well in Sacramento, Denver, and Golden State aside from them being in the West.

These are trends, which means they are significant to Randle in some way. For whatever reason, Randle plays his best in warm weather, in the Pacific Time Zone, and against teams he has a history with.

And then there is Dallas, his hometown. Against the Mavericks on their court this past year, Randle was a +18 (5th highest +/- of the year) and had 26/8/5. It might not sound like much, but it was a good game for him. And last season, he averaged 29/9/9 against Dallas.

Finally, Randle’s best stretch of basketball occurred from Feb. 5th to the 16th, directly after the “who reported it” Marc Berman incident. Seven games, with five of them on the road, and he faced LAL, DEN, GS, and BKN over that stretch. The perfect storm of opponents and something to get him mad enough to play well.

Randle has a long list of very specific moments in which he plays great compared to how he usually is. That was especially true this year, since in general he was fantastic in 2020-21.

Randle needs to be in the right mindset to perform, because if not, the stats aren’t the only thing that suffers as a result.