Julius Randle’s statistical regression
On the surface, basic stats would indicate that Randle had a solid season. He averaged 20.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. Those are all down from last year, but they aren’t a far cry from the numbers that made Randle an All-NBA performer.
The way in which Randle regressed in 2021-22 becomes clear when you see his shooting percentages. He saw significant drop off’s in FG% (from 45.6 to 41.1), eFG% (51.6 to 45.9), 3P% (41.1 to 30.8), and FT% (81.1 to 75.6).
This was all despite him taking many of the same shots and averaging nearly identical shot attempts in those areas.
Many doubters of Randle, both before and directly after the 2021 playoffs, thought the success he had shooting the ball wasn’t sustainable even though he did it over the course of a 71-game sample size.
"“[For that reason, I didn’t buy into the idea that he and other players who excelled that season only did so because of the “empty gym atmosphere” NBA games had. The presence of fans definitely matters and adds pressure, but to me, that wasn’t a factor in what made Randle ball out…Randle was drilling fadeaway and pull-up jumpers from the mid-range and from three in the teeth of defenses and making the perfect reads with the ball in his hands… But, now that I have seen how 2021-22 went, I am questioning nearly everything I thought I knew about that All-NBA season… The biggest determining factor in his game is, undebatably, the mental. Randle seemingly melted down in the 2021 playoffs opening round against the Atlanta Hawks. To their credit, Atlanta did a good job of defending Randle and pressuring him with double teams. But, that was nothing Randle couldn’t handle throughout the year. So what changed?]” – Excerpt from “3 negative takeaways”"
What changed, indeed? A huge explanation for why there was such a big difference between the last two campaigns for Randle could’ve been his mentality entering each regular season.
Randle has credited much of what made him breakout in 2020-21 to him working hard to make up for his shortcomings in his first season with the Knicks.
Fast forward to the start of 2021-22, and Randle could have been shaky at best with his confidence. While he had a regular season for the history books, he flamed out in the playoffs.
Perhaps Randle was taxed from a long year in which he was tasked with dominating every night to the tune of 37.6 minutes per game. Fatigue may have been the key. He and his wife also had their second child in October, and we all know newborn babies are not easy to deal with in any profession.
The dramatic shift in efficiency and counting stats for Randle could be chalked up to any and all of these reasons. And yet, there is an even deeper rabbit hole to dive down into when discussing what defined Randle’s best and worst games.