NY Knicks: What History Tells Us To Expect In Tom Thibodeau’s 2nd Year

What will Tom Thibodeau’s Offensive Approach be in Year 2 with NY Knicks?

Let’s start by hitting the big headline.

In both his second year in Chicago and his second year in Minnesota, Thibodeau’s teams have had generally improved offenses when considering major metrics.

There was an improvement from year one to year two in Offensive Rating.

Both franchises ranked in the top five in offensive rating in the second year under Thibodeau according to Basketball-Reference.

There was also an improvement in where each team ranked in points per game compared to the rest of the league.

What hasn’t changed for Thibodeau in either of his previous second years is pace.

His teams have always hovered in the mid-to-low twenties in pace league-wide. The Knicks were dead last in pace last year.

There may be some slight movement there, but Knicks fans should not expect a major leap.

What do we find when we get a bit more granular? Surely Thibodeau and his staff must have spent a ton of time in the offseason developing a new skill or two for their primary offensive fulcrums from the previous year?

History tells us that isn’t what happened. Historically, Thibodeau’s second-year offenses read like movie sequels.

Take what worked in the first one and just do way more of it.

For example, Derrick Rose’s most efficient shots in the 2010-2011 season were shots at the rim and short mid-range shots, per Cleaning the Glass.

Both of those shot types were an increased percentage of Rose’s total offense in the 2011-2012 season.

There is a similar pattern for Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota from the 2016-2017 season to the 2017-2018 season.

Expect to see Julius Randle do more of what worked this year.

One final note on the offensive approach. Interestingly, the usage rate for his players also balances out from year one to year two.

Offensive stars who dominated the ball in year one tend to see a decrease in usage while other players see an uptick.

This is good news for players who would love to see R.J. Barrett get more opportunities to dominate the ball.

Lesson learned: The offense will improve while continuing to play in a measured fashion that highlights the best player’s strengths.