NY Knicks Draft: A scout and a non-believer talk Jaden Springer
NY Knicks: Jaden Springer prospect analysis
"1. A lot of #KnicksTwitter is high on Springer – higher than the major outlets – and your board agrees. What is it about Springer that slots him so high for you, and why (if he’s still available when they’re on the clock) does his skillset fit both the Knicks’ present and future?"
SZ: He has incredibly solid fundamentals on top of an encouraging statistical profile, and at the guard position(s), he is more than physical enough to play against NBA-caliber athletes right away (at least on the ground). Springer is much more mature than his age, both physically and his play on the court. He’s always played up in competition and done well. If given time and properly invested in, I think he could be a Top-5 player in this draft class.
As for his fit with the Knicks – firstly, Coach Thibodeau would love the way he defends and likely reward his intensity with playing time. He seems to take a lot of pride on that end of the floor, not afraid to take on difficult challenges (like guarding Cade Cunningham admirably in a couple high school matchups). Springer certainly fits that defensive identity.
The Knicks’ present is positive, but also somewhat cloudy, with potentially big moves on the horizon that could shake up the entire outlook of the roster. For now, I’ll answer how Springer would fit in New York moving forward.
The NY Knicks are thin on guards for the future outside of Immanuel Quickley, but I could see Springer and Quickley sharing the floor together and providing value on and off the ball. With Springer’s FT% and 3P% at Tennessee (81.0% and 43.5% respectively – most of his 3s were assisted), it’s likely he will be able to space the floor well while Quickley initiates and takes his array of off-the-dribble shots and floaters. Conversely, I think Springer will be able to initiate some PnRs, penetrate under control, and make good decisions. Whoever’s listed at point guard is irrelevant, since they should both be capable of initiating offense (along with RJ Barrett at times, too).
"2. What is his ceiling in your opinion? And if he doesn’t reach it, what will it be that holds him back?"
SZ: Ceilings are always tough to pin down. Lately, I’ve been trying to avoid capping players’ potential with a declaration of a ceiling outcome, but I’ll do my best for this thought exercise.
I think Springer’s best-case scenario is around a Top-15 player in the League when he hits his prime. Jimmy Butler always came to mind when I watched Springer, and Jimmy is/was arguably around that same ranking (or even a little higher) at his best. Almost nothing Jimmy does on the court looks remarkable, but he consistently plays quality basketball on both ends, defending stoutly and creating good opportunities on offense for himself and his teammates. I see Springer winning in similar ways, utilizing his strength to penetrate and either rising up for paint pull-ups or finding open teammates. Springer has the edge for shooting projection at this point in his career, but Butler has better size. However, due to Springer’s age, there may be one last growth spurt (although I wouldn’t necessarily count on that).
If Springer falls short of his ceiling, his off-the-dribble shooting will be a main culprit. I believe in the process of his off-the-dribble shooting at Tennessee, but the results were admittedly subpar (0.62 PPP, 26th percentile). Going back to his IMG days, Springer has a nice, short-range paint pull-up game (not dissimilar to Jimmy Butler). However, if he’s unable to find separation (I think he will by utilizing his strength), then those pull-ups will be contested, and although I like the consistency of his mechanics, continuous tough looks do not bode well for a healthy shot diet.
"3. QUICK HITTERS: What do you see his role being offensively? Lead guard? Off-the-ball?"
Yes. Meaning both. I like his catch-n-shoot ability for an off-ball role, and I think he has enough tools to eventually grow into a lead guard.
"4. If he reaches his full potential, he’ll be ______________."
I don’t love using player comps, but I’d say a smaller Jimmy Butler who is a more proficient 3pt shooter (as mentioned above). I actually kind of like this player comp, despite significant differences. For the most part, take player comps with a grain of salt.
"5. If he settles into his floor, he’ll be ________________."
A strong defender, particularly at the point-of-attack (which has value). I think he projects to also be a pretty good off-ball defender, as I thought he was quite disciplined in his positioning at Tennessee.
Offensively, his floor will be almost strictly as an off-guard, not finding enough separation with the ball to truly be a lead-guard. Still, he’ll contribute to positive spacing with solid shooting and then smart decision-making against tilted defenses.