How The 2021 NBA Draft Lottery can still impact the Knicks
By Ken Tavarez
The start of the offseason begins with the NBA draft lottery selection which will take place on June 22nd. While the Knicks are not in the NBA draft lottery this season it doesn’t mean the results won’t impact them. Once the lottery draft order is set, it will start a chain reaction of events, it will determine how trades are structured and where free agents sign.
The NBA Draft lottery could still have implications for the Knicks
How could we forget the 2019 lottery when the Lakers magically jumped up from the 11th selection to the 4th despite only having a 9% chance to move up, and then the Pelicans winning the lottery despite only have a 6% chance. Those unexpected lottery results are what made the Anthony Davis trade to the Lakers possible after multiple failed attempts prior to the draft lottery drawing.
While we can make educated guesses on what will happen based on the odds, we do know that there will be surprises. There have been a lot since the lottery odds were flattened two years ago to discourage tanking. It’s predicting where those surprises will happen that is difficult. So, I will attempt to do so by understanding what the Commissioner of the NBA, Adam Silver, would like to happen.
The commissioner is tasked with growing the game and making sure the value of each franchise increases. The commissioner gets paid by the owners, that means he has 30 bosses to answer to. So there isn’t anyone that is praying to the “Basketball Gods” more than him. Below are what Adam Silver would like to happen in order for the 2021-22 season to be a success, having the Knicks be good is one of them.
Adam Silver’s Wish List
- Warriors return to greatness
- Damian Lillard gets better teammates
- Best rookies go to small market teams
- Big market teams make the playoffs (Knicks)
To be clear, I am not saying that the lottery is fixed, just curious if the “Basketball Gods” decide to answer the commissioner’s prayers. Let’s start with my predictions for the lottery, then see how the draft order will impact the Knicks.
14th Selection goes to Golden State ⇔ 97.6% probability
13th Selection goes to Indiana ⇔ 92.9% probability
12th Selection goes to San Antonio ⇔ 85.2% probability
11th Selection goes to Charlotte ⇔ 77.6% probability
10th Selection goes to New Orleans ⇔ 60.6% probability
9th Selection goes to Sacramento ⇔ 46.4% probability
I predict no changes for slots 14 – 9, as you can see the odds of moving up are really low. Golden State only has a 2.4% chance of moving up, which would be all the way into the top 4. Sacramento has the 9th best odds with a 20.2% chance of moving up in the draft.
The commissioner would prefer these teams stay put as they all have good players and can easily turn into playoff teams by making minor upgrades. Now on to the mid-lottery where the fun begins and the results start to impact the Knicks!!