Knicks: A comprehensive breakdown of the first ten games

The Knicks are 5-5. Breaking the season into 10-game intervals, I’ll review the positive and negative trends and what we can expect in the future.

The New York Knicks leave their fans on the edge of their seats every night. Ten games into the 2020-2021 season this team has been well-coached and has given maximum effort, or close to maximum every night on the floor.

Uniting Knicks Twitter is no easy task, and despite their tribal-like claims to superiority, the 90’s grit and grind club and the new school analytics crowd have all been smitten with the team’s defense and rebounding, Immanuel Quickey’s efficient production, Austin Rivers’ shot creation, and Julius Randle’s All-Star campaign.

Success aside, it’s still early, and anything can happen.

Let’s review the top positive and negative trends of the 2020-2021 season part 1.

Austin Rivers and Alec Burks are really important

I’ll be the first person to apologize to Austin Rivers. I was critical when the Knicks signed him and was severely uninformed regarding his growth as a player, especially his defense as a member of the Houston Rockets.

According to Cleaning the Glass, Rivers currently ranks within the 97th percentile in points per shot attempt, and despite a negative net rating, anyone watching the game can see that Rivers’ shot creation, play-making, and clutch play are reasons why the Knicks have an exciting team in 2021. Rivers also ranks within the 100th percentile in effective field goal percentage.

Similarly, Alec Burks has been a fantastic offseason signing for the Knicks. He may have only played in three games, but Burks is scoring over 20 points per game and is shooting over 60 percent from the three-point line. Barring any more injuries, the Knicks’ offensive efficiency is bound to improve when Burks gets back on the court. He’s also putting the Knicks in a prime position to finesse a draft pick from a contending team in need of shooting, prior to the trade deadline.

Can Thibs adjust?

Much was made about Tom Thibodeau’s ability to adapt to the modern game prior to his hiring in New York. In Minnesota, his teams took heavy amounts of mid-range shots, and just about every statistical category that matters was inconsistent, except for their defense. It was bad. Similarly, his Knicks, have been somewhat of a mixed bag as well.

Offense:

The Knicks rank 17th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage,  and dead last in both three-pointers made, and three-pointers attempted. New York also ranks 28th in offensive rating. On the positive side, according to Cleaning the Glass, the orange and blue rank within the 3rd percentile in shot attempts taken at the rim, and within the 13th percentile in attempts at the corner three spot.

Keep in mind that hot-shooting Alec Burks missed a fair amount of games, and his presence in the lineup is bound to have a positive effect on those numbers. However, if we’re being fair, Thib’s minutes’ management, a concerning trend which has followed him throughout his career, has carried with him to the Knicks.

As I’m writing this, Julius Randle and 20-year old RJ Barrett currently lead the NBA in minutes played per game. Ex-coach David Fizdale was clowned (and rightfully so) for disparaging load management as a philosophy, but since the Knicks have exceeded expectations, Thibs has escaped the ire of fans and the media.

Thibs shortened his rotation to 8 players, and while it had a positive effect on the team’s win-loss record, he has to re-evaluate with the player’s long-term health in mind, especially since players are dropping like flies around the league and there was no training camp.

Defense:

The Knicks are currently 10th in rebounds per game and third in opponent’s points per game. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, however, there is this…

There is no question that the Knicks have benefitted from some early season luck. Regardless, this team is a more defensively active and disciplined team under Thibodeau as opposed to Fizdale. Even notoriously poor defenders like Kevin Knox have improved this season.

Can Thibs develop players?

I was always puzzled by this criticism and felt like there was a fair amount of recency bias attached to it. Thibodeau absolutely developed players like Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah, and Luol Deng.

I mean, Noah airballed a free-throw at one point in his career, yet Thibs had him playing like an MVP-candidate in Chicago during the 2013-2014 season. Of course, it was a different story in Minnesota. Despite reports of a poor relationship with Karl Anthony-Towns, KAT actually had one of his best seasons of his career while playing under Thibs. That being said, Andrew Wiggins remained Andrew Wiggins, and the T-Wolves were very inconsistent.

RJ Barrett:

The number three overall pick in the 2019 draft has shown signs of growth, most of which are not visible on the stat sheet.

Barrett came into this season shooting 40 percent from the field, 32 percent from the three-point line, and 61 percent from the free-throw line. Ten games into this season, those percentages, with the exception of free-throw accuracy, are worse. This season, Barrett is converting 69.4 percent of his free throws, and on the bright side, he is averaging more points, rebounds and assists per game. However, he’s shooting a ghastly 37.4 percent from the field and 20 percent from three.

According to Cleaning the Glass, the 20-year old wing has slightly improved his production at the rim, converting 55 percent of his drives, as opposed to 54 percent last season. But In the end, Knicks fans, who watch each game religiously, have observed Barrett’s improvements in decision-making and defense. Have faith that Thibs, Johnnie Bryant, and the rest of the Knicks coaching staff will get him right!

Mitchell Robinson:

Outside of Julius Randle, Robinson’s growth has been the most impressive. Prior to the start of the season, fans were nervous when Thibs questioned Robinson’s professionalism. But since the seven-foot phenom’s minutes have increased, he has improved his rebounding and kept his fouls down. Robinson has credited the coaching staff for him helping him post the lowest personal fouls per game mark of his career. But as the Knicks play more games, it will be interesting to see how Robinson improves his free-throw percentage. Currently, he is shooting a career-low 46.2 percent at the line and must improve in that area. With an extension mostly likely looming at the end of this season, I’d bet on Robinson improving those numbers.

Kevin Knox:

Knox’s statistical production will not scream success, but the third-year pro is posting career highs in field goal percentage and three-point percentage. Knox’s role and game have been simplified: shoot the open three, pass, or drive to the rim. The frequency for shots from the three-point line and at the rim isn’t there yet, but he does rank within the 57th percentile in converting triples from the corner three spot. Small positive steps for a player, with all the measurables and talent needed to be a force at the professional level.

Julius Randle, an All-Star?

I guarantee you, regardless of which pre-season hot takes/predictions articles you read, prior to the start of the 2020-2021 season, none of them had Julius Randle playing like this. Randle is averaging 23.2 points per game, 11.8 rebounds per game, and just over seven assists per game. These are All-Star numbers and perhaps, even more impressive than the last two All-Stars to represent the orange and blue: Kristaps Porzingis and Carmelo Anthony.

Randle’s development both as a play-maker and on the defensive end, have been a sight for sore eyes. Randle currently ranks within the top-10 in both assists per game and total assists, and he is posting the best defensive box-plus-minus of his career. According to trainer, and long-time friend, Tyler Relph, Randle worked tirelessly over the summer to improve his ball-handling, shooting, and footwork. The proof is in the pudding and the hard work has certainly paid off.

The next ten games feature five games against teams with records above .500. Surprisingly, one of those teams is not the Brooklyn Nets. So far, the Tom Thibodeau experiment has yielded positive returns on defense, yet, the offense, sans Julius Randle, has looked like a trainwreck. And if the cure for the Knicks’ offensive woes is Burks, a career 36 percent three-point shooter, who is on his sixth team in eight seasons, that might be all you need to know about the 2020-2021 Knicks.

With that said, there have been positive signs of player development, and signs that the team is more organized and has a clear game plan every night. Whether they execute that game plan is a different story. The next ten games will certainly tell us a lot about our beloved orange and blue.