When is the right time to re-sign Mitchell Robinson?
Despite his popularity among the fanbase and recent record-setting season, Mitchell Robinson is a bit of an unknown commodity in the NBA, something that could be beneficial to the New York Knicks as they decide how to approach his long-term contract situation.
Everyone knows Robinson has talent, but it remains to be seen whether he can reach his potential of becoming a game-changing, two-way player.
As cap specialist Brock Aller gets comfortable in his new surroundings under team president Leon Rose, one of his first assignments is undoubtedly mapping the optimal time to re-sign the big man.
New York currently owes Robinson $1.6 million on a non-guaranteed amount for next season, with another $1.8 million due in the form of a team option for 2021-22.
If the Knicks believe the 22-year-old is on the cusp of developing into a star player, perhaps they should extend him before he reaches that potential on a team-friendly deal, hoping he is enticed by dollar signs after earning a measly $3 million over his first two seasons in the league.
Waiting until next offseason could be several months too late. What if Mitch takes the proverbial next step in proving he is worthy of a big-time contract?
2021 presents the Knicks with another opportunity to allure superstars in the open market with Giannis Antetokounmpo leading a star-studded free agent class. Keeping Robinson’s cap hit as low as possible could prove beneficial to their future spending plans.
When should the Knicks extend Mitchell Robinson? Should they just play out his four year contract before deciding whether to re-sign him as an unrestricted free agent?
For the purposes of this article, we are going to focus on the salary cap mechanics in thinking about the different options available to the Knicks with their young center. We will save the specifics of defining his value for a separate post. Let’s get into it.
Mitchell Robinson: Extend him this offseason
Coming off the second anniversary of his first contract in the NBA, the second round pick is eligible for a contract extension before the 2020-21 season begins.
If the Knicks want to dictate the terms of re-signing Mitchell Robinson long-term, while doing so before his stock rises too high, their best option might be to offer him an extension this offseason.
Robinson’s 2020-21 non-guaranteed salary cannot be renegotiated, but the team can get to work this offseason by declining his fourth year club option and extending his contract by 2-4 seasons. They can also opt-in to his club option and add up to three years to his existing deal.
By declining his fourth year option, New York can offer a maximum four-year, $56 million contract extension (projected by using an estimated average salary of $10.4 million in 2021-22) that would dwarf the $1.8 million he is due to make in his existing team option year. Of course, there are realistic scenarios (which I will cover in a bit) that could see Robinson earn a bigger payday by waiting to sign an extension, but there is also the risk that he doesn’t make much higher than a league minimum salary until 2022. He might want to secure a windfall of guaranteed money sooner than that.
With plenty of cap space to work with, the Knicks can also get creative in offering Robinson a large bonus amount (up to 15% of the total extension value) that would bring the total value of the extension closer to $65 million. The corresponding $8.5 million bonus can be paid immediately and spread evenly over the five years remaining on his existing and extended contract, alleviating some of the cap hit.
By signing Mitchell Robinson to an extension this offseason, New York could operate in good faith that the maximum amount they can offer is reasonably close to his current market value.
Cap expert Danny Leroux recently speculated that $15 million is a reasonable annual figure for the young center, while admitting that number could quickly change based on Robinson’s performance.
A max extension (including a bonus) would pay Mitch an average annual salary of about $16 million over the four years added to his original contract. Of course, the Knicks can also negotiate a more team-friendly deal for less money that could include an option year, or partially-guaranteed amounts.
Again, by offering an extension this offseason, they are in a better position to dictate the terms.
By waiting until next offseason, Robinson would become eligible for a much larger contract which could force the Knicks into overpaying him due to market dynamics. At that point, the Knicks could exercise his 2021-22 club option and renegotiate his salary (currently only $1.8 million) to a higher amount (up to approximately $22 million), and then build a four-year extension off that.
The Knicks could also decline his 2021-22 team option and treat him as a restricted free agent in 2021, which we will talk about next.
Mitchell Robinson: Re-sign him in 2021
Coming off two pandemic-impacted seasons, it’s impossible to know exactly what the salary cap will look like in 2021, but it most likely will be a depressed market at the same time when some of the league’s most prominent players become free agents.
If the Knicks extend Robinson this offseason by declining his fourth-year team option to offer him a quicker payday, his inflated 2021-22 salary would count against the cap next summer instead of a much lower amount had they waited to re-sign him.
New York can manipulate the cap hold on Robinson in 2021 by delaying his extension in order to maximize their cap space.
Since the Louisiana native has a team option for 2021-22, his cap hold would originally be the club option amount ($1.8 million), unless the Knicks decline it to make him a restricted free agent. At that point, if he meets starter criteria this upcoming season (starts at least 41 games), his qualifying offer would be that of the 21st pick in the 2018 draft, or about $4.9 million, which is slightly higher than 190% of his previous salary, which would be his free agent cap hold if his qualifying offer was lower.
Similar to what the Knicks could have done with Kristaps Porzingis, had they not traded him to Dallas before he was eligible to become an RFA, they can keep Robinson’s cap hold on the books to save some cap space before using his Bird rights to possibly exceed the cap to re-sign him after signing several other players.
While the Knicks would have complete control on the negotiation process for an extension in 2020, by waiting until 2021 and making him an RFA, they would open themselves up to other teams extending an offer sheet, which could inflate the value of his contract.
Robinson would be eligible to earn a maximum contract (with a starting salary as high as 25% of the cap) as a restricted free agent next offseason.
Mitchell Robinson: Wait until he is an unrestricted free agent
When the Knicks signed Mitchell Robinson as a second round pick, they negotiated one of the best contracts in the NBA. Besides getting a first round talent for peanuts against the cap, they built in two escape clauses with a non-guaranteed third year and club option on his fourth year.
What this allows the Knicks to do is make evaluations at different points in his contract before deciding whether to lock him up long-term. The club option in the fourth year is particularly interesting because if it is exercised, it would allow Robinson to become an unrestricted free agent in 2022.
The way the NBA labor market works, players are paid for their past performance as much as their projected future performance. To illustrate the concept, imagine Mitchell Robinson lives up to fans’ wildest dreams and is worthy of a max contract in 2022. If that is the case, he would have been playing as a max-level player for at least the prior season, and the Knicks would have received that production for only $1.8 million if they didn’t offer him a contract extension before then.
Whether he performs as a max-level player in the future, or not, if the Knicks believe they can sign him for a relatively cheaper amount than what he will be worth in 2022 as a UFA, in giving him an extension before his current contract runs out, they would essentially be overpaying for his 2021-22 season, relative to his existing salary, in hopes of underpaying for his production for the extended seasons beyond that.
Why would the Knicks risk letting one of their best draft picks in recent memory reach the open market in two years? Cap space.
Just because Robinson can leave for another team in 2022, it doesn’t mean the Knicks still don’t have an advantage in re-signing him as a Bird free agent, allowing them to outbid their competition, while preserving his incredibly small cap hold ($3.4 million) entering the summer. Meanwhile, they would gain two more seasons of evaluating him as a prospect before committing a large financial outlay.
What’s a better competitive advantage than getting the services of an elite interior defender who projects as a lethal rim runner for less than $4 million over the next two seasons, COMBINED?
The Knicks are in the driver’s seat with Mitchell Robinson. They have a unique talent and several avenues available for them to keep him on a cost-effective contract while considering when they want to re-sign him to a more lucrative long-term deal.