New York Knicks: Is Julius Randle really transformed?

Julius Randle (30) gets defended by Detroit Pistons guard Killian Hayes (7) during the first quarter at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Julius Randle (30) gets defended by Detroit Pistons guard Killian Hayes (7) during the first quarter at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
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Jan 4, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30) grabs a loose ball on the floor in front of Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) and center Clint Capela (middle) during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Julius Randle: A different player?

Let’s look at Julius Randle’s turnover numbers this season compared to last.

TURNOVERS

2019-20 

  • Turnovers PG – 3
  • Turnovers per TOUCH (estimate based on RPG + Passes Received) – 0.057
  • Ast/TO – 1.03/1

2020-21

  • Turnovers PG – 4.9
  • Turnovers per TOUCH – 0.066
  • Ast/TO – 1.51/1

Randle’s actually turning the ball over (slightly) more frequently – per touch – THIS YEAR than last year, but you’d never know it by reading your timeline. Are we more understanding of these turnovers because of his increased responsibility as the primary playmaker? Is assist-to-turnover ratio what matters most to us? Or is it everything else – shooting, defense, the whole new-and-improved package – that keeps us from running back to those lazy, old “Julius Spin” jokes?

SHOOTING (per Basketball-Reference.com)

2019-20

  • FGA per game – 15.7 (3.6 3PA)
  • FGA per minute played – 0.48
  • FG% – 46% (27.7% from 3)
  • FT% – 73.3% (on 5.5 FTA per game)
  • TS% – 53.8%

2020-21

  • FGA per game – 17 (4 3PA)
  • FGA per minute played – 0.44
  • FG% – 48.5% (34.4% from 3)
  • FT% – 77.8% (on 6.8 FTA per game)
  • TS% – 57.9%

Accounting for increased playing time, he’s shooting only slightly less often this season, so attempts can’t really be used to support a selfish-to-unselfish narrative, either.

Despite the recent dip in FG% and 3P% (injuries to key teammates and fatigue are surely factors), his efficiency is still up across the board – is this the key influence? Are volume shooters only selfish when they do it inefficiently?

An interesting note – per NBA.com, he’s actually shooting more of what we’d have considered “bad shots” last year (pull-ups, long 2s, bailout attempts with the shot clock winding down) and he’s not shooting from the paint nearly as much.