Knicks: What will the guard rotation look like with everyone healthy?

How will the New York Knicks juggle the guard rotation when everyone is healthy?

While it seems like New York Knicks fans’ support amongst the current crop of guards on the roster is divided and nuanced, everyone has had reason to feel like their guy is an answer for Tom Thibodeau’s squad so far.

Whether you’re an Elfrid Payton devotee (who has bounced back nicely after a dreadful start), a Frank Ntilikina believer (who was starting to make some perimeter shots before injuring his knee), an Immanuel Quickley enthusiast (who had an encouraging preseason), or Alec Burks backer (averaging over 20 points per game over the first three games), there’s been moments to justify having confidence in each one of them. Dennis Smith Jr. fans, hang tight, it’s possible your time will come.

It’s been encouraging to see each of the guards have a little bit of success thus far, but there’s an awkward subplot looming over how to allocate each of them minutes once everyone is healthy again.

Austin Rivers returned to the lineup this week, as Frank Ntilikina and Alec Burks miss timed due to injury. But both players are expected back soon enough, making evaluating the backcourt an even more convoluted chore than it already is.

Before we delve too deeply into Rivers and the impact his return has on the roster, let’s take a moment to think about why he would’ve come to the Knicks in the first place. He’s already had a pretty full NBA experience from a career arc perspective—starting off as a lottery pick for the then-New Orleans Hornets who didn’t quite live up to his promise, while later evolving into an important rotation piece for Western Conference playoff contenders. His time with the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets was spent mostly playing off the ball while Chris Paul, James Harden and Russell Westbrook orchestrated the offense and found Rivers spotting up behind the three-point line.

Unfortunately, the Knicks aren’t on the doorstep of contention in the Eastern Conference just yet, so Rivers’ decision to sign with New York can’t be attributed to his desire to continue playing for contenders through his late twenties. Additionally, New York isn’t as bereft of talent as the Hornets/Pelicans teams he was a part of very early on in his career, so he had to know that he wouldn’t be the primary offensive option with R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle in the fold.

While a fun storyline, it’s also unlikely that the young veteran decided to come play at Madison Square Garden because his father spent two full seasons with the team during the glory days in the early 1990’s. His price tag also wasn’t exorbitant, so common sense seems to indicate he could’ve received the $3 million he received from the Knicks this season almost anywhere else in the league.

So where does that leave us? Reading the tea leaves, it’s likely that someone in the front office, or perhaps coach Thibodeau himself, assured Rivers he would have a sizable role on the team—a hybrid of the primary offensive creator he was billed as coming out of the draft, and the stationary three-point shooter role he played with Houston. The 28 year old wouldn’t have signed with the rebuilding Knicks, during the prime of his career, unless he had some assurances, logic would dictate.

This means with Rivers healthy, he should have a spot in the rotation playing between 20-25 minutes a game.

While Alec Burks and Rivers share the same general player profile (swingmen who can get hot and provide instant offense), it seems unlikely that the coaching staff would want to cut the former’s minutes given the scoring punch he’s provided out of the gate. He’s not going to shoot 66% from three all season, but he’s played well enough to deserve a little more rope as a floor spacer. Even if/when his percentages come down, Burks has established himself in the NBA as a reliable ancillary scorer, which most players on the Knicks roster can’t say.

Elfrid Payton remains the Knicks’ best traditional playmaker at the point guard position, and unless Thibodeau has a total paradigm shift with regards to how the offense gets facilitated, it would seem like Payton is a confident bet to be part of the rotation for the forseeable future. But it’s entirely possible that his minutes are reduced with Rivers back in fold, since Rivers provides more range which defenses need to respect, and enough ballhandling ability to get the team into the offense.

Despite the seemingly natural fit between Frank Ntilikina’s defensive skill set and Tom Thibodeau’s noted desire to employ players who give it their all on that end of the floor, there are factors which appear to point to Ntilikina being a deep reserve unless the injury bug bites the team.

The Knicks didn’t appear interested in discussing an extension with Ntilikina before the season started, and the young Frenchman found himself buried in the rotation on opening night, when their full compliment of guards was healthy (except for Rivers). Only 22 years old with a physical frame and lateral quickness that can cause issues, Ntilikina can still find himself valuable minutes as his career unfolds, but there appears to be some writing on the wall (in pencil) that he might not get free reign to reach that potential with the Knicks. With Rivers getting up-to-speed, it seems like Number 11 might be a consistent DNP when he returns from injury.

That leaves us with Immanuel Quickley, who also finds himself trying to get back on the court after a hip injury suffered against the Pacers. Knicks fans have been watching Quickley with a close eye in the preseason and during his brief NBA debut against Indiana to see if he seems trustworthy enough to run an offense through. The sample size has been incredibly small, but so far, he’s seemed to pass the eye test. He’s also got the new toy shimmer to him—because we don’t know what he could become, dreams and visions of grandeur involving the Kentucky guard have run rampant. If Rivers completely torpedoed Quickley’s opportunity to develop, this would be the move that would draw the most ire among fans and local media.

Thibodeau seemed to like Quickley better than Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr coming out of the abridged training camp, so there’s a world in which he finds time for him even with Rivers back healthy.

Maybe he decides to go small/more versatile at the expense of Reggie Bullock, but there’s a good chance we’ll see Rivers out there with the rookie a decent amount, and that would be a positive development for the team. Rivers would not command too much of the ball handling responsibility so as to stifle Quickley’s learning curve, but would provide an outlet who could penetrate into the lane if Quickley got into trouble.