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Knicks: Why Austin Rivers should be the starting point guard

By Michael DeStefano

LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 10: Austin Rivers #25 of the Houston Rockets dribbles the ball during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers in Game Four of the Western Conference Second Round during the 2020 NBA Playoffs at AdventHealth Arena at the ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on September 10, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 10: Austin Rivers #25 of the Houston Rockets dribbles the ball during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers in Game Four of the Western Conference Second Round during the 2020 NBA Playoffs at AdventHealth Arena at the ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on September 10, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /
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Sep 12, 2020; Lake Buena Vista, Florida, USA; Houston Rockets guard Austin Rivers (25) reacts in the first half of game five of the second round against the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2020 NBA Playoffs at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Why Austin Rivers should be the starting point guard.

Hmm…so you’re ignoring the fact that the Knicks 2-3 record is better than anyone would’ve predicted, and your solution to *fixing* the team is to start a guy at a position he hasn’t played in seven years?

Yes, because the Knicks need two main things from that role, and they’re things Elfrid can’t do (despite the early numbers). Things Austin Rivers is much, much better at.

Such as?

3-POINT SHOOTING

Payton’s at 46.2% from 3 so far, including 5/7 (71.4%) in the wins. But based on his performance last year – one of the worst three-point shooting seasons in NBA history – and his career numbers (29.3%), this is the opposite of sustainable.

His best 3-point season is 32.6%, so let’s assume his regression stops right around there. Let’s even project a new career-best 34%, accounting for Thibs’ emphasis on getting him to the corners. That’s still worse than Austin Rivers’ career average (34.8%) and nowhere near what Rivers can do when he’s on.

Three-point shooting is the main reason for the Knicks two wins; it’s the main reason they were able to blow out the top-tier Milwaukee Bucks; and it’s the thing that will make or break their ability to be competitive over the long haul. Burks, Ntilikina, and Randle are shooting well, Knox is showing signs, and Bullock will come around, but with a Payton regression (and the inevitable Randle regression), the lineup will need more spacing and consistent shooting to maintain this level and style of play.

ONE-ON-ONE SCORING 

Elf’s done a nice job getting to the rim; problem is his finishing’s been inconsistent. He’s only at 50% between 0-3 feet thus far, well below his career number. This percentage rising is just as inevitable as his three-point percentage falling, which could keep him serviceable…if not for Rivers being just as good. For their careers, they are pretty much equal from at the rim (58.5% to 57.7%), and last year, Austin had the slight edge.

Rivers has the better handle, better jumper, and is equal at the rim, and he’s inarguably the superior one-on-one player. All these things would give the starting unit a major boost offensively. Thibs’ system loves a scoring guard, and Rivers is the best option the Knicks have. He’s the only guy on the team who can hit a step-back three one possession and then break his man’s ankles and explode to the rim the next.

After the dreadful shooting night against Toronto, the Knicks are dead-last in Team PPG. Injecting Rivers into the first five would make them much more dangerous.

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