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NY Knicks: Predicting the starting lineup as camp opens

By Jeffrey Bellone

Mar 2, 2020; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (23) goes in for a dunk over Houston Rockets guard Russell Westbrook (0) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 2, 2020; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (23) goes in for a dunk over Houston Rockets guard Russell Westbrook (0) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 25, 2020; Fairfax, Virginia, USA; Dayton Flyers forward Obi Toppin (1) dribbles as George Mason Patriots forward Greg Calixte (33) defends during the first half at EagleBank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /

Predicting the Knicks’ starting power forward: Obi Toppin

Julius Randle is still a New York Knick. If we were betting on him making the roster to start the season back in the summer, you might have put the odds at 50/50. But here we are. The Knicks took a patient approach in free agency, so shedding Randle’s $18.9 million contract wasn’t necessary. They are better off waiting until we get closer to the trade deadline to evaluate if the spinning power forward could become a valuable piece to a team who would be willing to take on a smaller portion of his contract, considering only $4 million is guaranteed in 2021-22.

Deciding who should start at power forward is an exercise in finding a suitable frontcourt partner for Mitchell Robinson. For the young center to make an impact, he needs to have proper spacing to make noise around the rim, both on offense and defense.

People might be surprised to find out the Knicks performed better last season with Randle playing next to Mitch than they did using a stretch four option in Bobby Portis. But if you look closer at the numbers, the difference can be attributed to who was playing point guard with the frontcourt players. Mitch and Portis formed an effective lineup with Frank Ntilikina as the lead guard, but were disastrous together when Dennis Smith Jr. took over the ball-handling duties, while their other lineup mates remained the same.

Obi Toppin was drafted, in part, because of his advanced age and ability to step into the mix right away. He is not a project. But he is still a rookie and his defense requires a lot of work.

The key for Toppin is proving whether his perimeter stroke translates to the NBA three-point line. Last season, lineups with Robinson and Randle finished in the bottom 1 percentile in three-point shooting frequency. With RJ Barrett stapled into the lineup, if Thibodeau doesn’t find some shooting at the power forward position, it makes spacing the floor challenging.

For this reason, I think Toppin is the better option to start. However, I wouldn’t expect this to happen in reality.

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