Aleksej Pokusevski might be an intriguing lottery option for the New York Knicks.
The NBA lottery is finally approaching. The New York Knicks will learn their draft pick fate on August 20. Where the ping pong balls land will obviously dictate who they are able to target as their next young hope. But could an unfamiliar name in Aleksej Pokusevski become the answer to their problems?
I’m typically pretty confident when it comes to my familiarity with NBA Draft prospects. I’ve been obsessed since a young age and can’t get enough scouting videos and big boards and mocks. So you can imagine my consternation when not too long ago I pulled up Twitter to find an unfamiliar four-letter name all over my timeline. P-O-K-U. My first thought was, ‘What’s a Poku?” and my second was, “Oh, okay, just Twitter twittering.” You know, gotta be unique, gotta hype up the guy no one else knows, What, you never heard of Poku? Couldn’t be me…
Then I started seeing him – Aleksej Pokusevski – creep into some mocked second rounds. Then some firsts. Then YouTube videos, social media clips…everywhere I turned: POKU!
I wrote an article a few weeks ago about Knicks’ draft targets, and to assist with prospect analysis, I enlisted the help of my go-to scout: Stepien contributor and former Draft Consultant to the Phoenix Suns, Spencer Pearlman. At the end of that article, I posed the question: if the Knicks are picking in the 6-10 range on draft night, which of these seven prospects would you take? After humoring me for a few lines, he gave the answer that was in his heart: “The one I’m taking is Aleksej Pokusevski.”
POKU??? He wasn’t even on the list! Was never a consideration of mine. At the time, I think the highest I’d seen him mocked was mid-to-late 20s. I couldn’t believe that a player whose name I’d only just learned was worthy of a Top-10 pick, and I’m still not sold. Which is why I’ve invited Spencer back to educate me.
Knicks Draft: Aleksej Pokusevski’s level of competition
In our LaMelo discussion, we discussed my concern about the NBL’s level of competition. Those concerns are exponentially greater with Poku. He plays on his club’s JV team and doesn’t even dominate statistically. Why are you so confident the tape will translate to the NBA, that it isn’t just the product of playing against non-professional competition?
SPENCER: If you actually look at the per 40 stats, his numbers line up well with Giannis’ (if not better) from his time in the same league. Big Wafe, who is a good draft follow, put up the stats on his most recent draft update. Obviously I’m not saying they’re the same, but the stats are not bad at all.
That said, he could’ve played better. Part of it was role – he was used without any *true* set role, but often it was spot-up shooting and movement shooting. The movement shots dragged his numbers down a bit, but the footwork and movement makes bode really well for his projection going forward. They’d use him as a PnR/PnP guy, and as the ball-handler on occasion as well, but he was mainly just a shooter. The varied skills he showed at his height are what makes him so intriguing – he’s not just a big guy using height/strength to beat guys smaller; he’s beating guys with his movement and skill. I don’t care what league it is – not many guys can shoot off movement, run PnRs as the screener or ball-handler, and act as a legit big-man initiator in the same game.
I’m not 100% confident it will translate, at least to his fullest potential, but I think he’s too skilled not to have an impact. He’s also a smart player, too – IQ and skill level tend to translate.
What position will he play in the NBA, and what must he do to play it effectively?
SPENCER: I think he’ll play the 4 in most lineups, though I could also see him playing 5 in true small-ball configurations. If he’s able to get up to 230-235 or so, which I think will happen naturally, he could see some minutes starting at the 5. But I don’t think he’s someone who can defend Embiid, Nurkic, Jokic, etc. because they’d just overpower him.
Skill-wise, he needs the shooting (which will come) – that’s probably the biggest one on offense. Again, his movement skills at his size are freaky – he’s 7’ moving like someone 6’7…that’s not normal. His ability to space the court will open up everything else, whether it’s passing on the move after being chased off the line or running PnP as the big. The additional stuff he doesn’t “need,” but I think he’ll have in his bag – being a big-man initiator, running PnR as the ball-handler, etc. I really can’t talk enough about the flashes he’s consistently shown on offense – if he hits 100% of his outcome, he’s a potential generational player a la Jokic (but some weird Bertāns-Jokić mix that we haven’t seen before); if he ends up around 75%, a better defensive Bertāns with more passing is a super-versatile impact starter. His potential low-end outcome is a +spacer with +passing. Obviously this is dependent on his work ethic, which I can’t speak on, but I think the bust level with him is pretty low.
Knicks Draft: Aleksej Pokusevski player comps
Let’s close with a Bruno Caboclo-inspired math question: “Aleksej Pokusevski is X years away from being two years away.” Solve for X.
SPENCER: Bold statement, but ZERO years. Maybe it takes him half a season to adjust to the NBA line, and it’ll take some time getting used to the physicality/strength, but I think he can play Year 1.
In lieu of traditional comps, let’s go this route: I know you touched on it a little bit above, but give us Pokusevski’s best possible outcome, your expected outcome, and his worst outcome.
SPENCER: Full disclosure – I hate player comps, and I really don’t have one for Poku, but…
BEST – Better defensive and better passing Davis Bertāns. Maybe not the full-on PURE movement shooter, but a movement-shooting 4 with + passing skills is definitely in play.
EXPECTED – A lesser version of above. I’m guessing the movement shooting would be the limiter, but I still expect the defense and passing to be better.
WORST – Spot-up shooting big who can pass on closeouts, but not much movement aside from relocations and other basic stuff. In sum, I really don’t think he’s going to fail outright. I think even at his lowest outcome, there is a place for him (assuming natural progression with strength, health, having a work-ethic, etc).
Knicks Draft: Is Aleksej Pokusevski the guy?
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t intrigued. The combination of shooting, playmaking, and rim protection is more than appealing, and after years of Knicks draft failure (and I’m not talking about any of our current TBDs), I love hearing that a prospect’s bust potential is “pretty low.”
But the term bust is subjective. If the Knicks use a Top-10 pick on a player who only becomes a “spot-up shooting big” who can pass a little bit (which was Spencer’s floor), is that worth the pick?
Part of the downside of being draft-obsessed for as long as I’ve been is that I let the past create present fear and skepticism. The allure of the 7-footer with guard skills – 3-point shooting, passing, handle, or any combination of the three – is nothing new, and while we’ve seen some mega-hits on guys like KD (who was a sure thing) and Giannis (much more of a project), my fear with Poku is that the Knicks end up with the next Nikoloz Tskitishvili or Darko Milicic or Yi Jianlian or Austin Daye or Jan Vesely or Perry Jones or Dragan Bender or Thon Maker or Skal Labissiere…
Sure, some of those are bad comparisons – Poku’s uniqueness is why we ditched a traditional comp exercise in the interview above – but the point remains: drafting the 7-foot unicorn project with guard skills is historically a boom-or-bust proposition that most often ends in bust (apologies to those mentioned who are still developing). It’s a dangerous gamble.
Unless of course you’re picking outside the lottery. Then it becomes a value pick. If it hits, you’re geniuses, and if it misses (like Daye and Jones above), no big deal. Such was the case with Bertans: drafted 42nd by the Spurs in 2011, stayed overseas for five years, and finally broke out eight years after his name was called. Had he never come over, or shown no potential upon arriving, no one would’ve cared. He could’ve been drafted 21st, and still no one would’ve batted an eyelash. But 6th? 8th? That’s a bust that lives forever. Which is why:
Top-10 pick? I am nowhere near brave enough to pull the trigger here. People say “Scared money don’t make no money,” but it doesn’t lose money, either. The Knicks, who nabbed starters / potential stars in each of the past two drafts and will enter this season with more hope than any in recent memory, need to hit. That doesn’t mean they need a superstar, nor does it mean they should play it super-safe. But safer than this.
With the 26th pick? Go for it. Many teams outside the lottery – Dallas, Miami, Milwaukee, Denver, Philly, etc. – seem like they can afford the Poku risk, but at the same time contenders might feel more comfortable with a surer contributor. Today alone, I’ve seen Pokusevski mocked at 17, 19, 24, 28, and outside the first round. While it may be unlikely, it’s possible he’s available here.
Trade up to get him? Sure, why not? If Rose & Co. get the sense he’ll go before 26, and they can package the LAC pick and the 2020 or a future second to move up a few spots, they have my blessing. Small price to pay for a potential unicorn.
For more elite NBA Draft analysis, follow Spencer Pearlman on Twitter @skpearlman and check out his work on The Stepien.