Is LaMelo Ball really worth all of the hype as a potential lottery pick to the New York Knicks?
Before we get into the nitty-gritty details of breaking down NBA lottery prospect LaMelo Ball’s game and potential fit with the New York Knicks, a quick story.
It was June 2009. I had a credential, but I was more fan than professional, ecstatic to have the opportunity to meet basketball’s next superstars: Blake Griffin. James Harden. Steph Curry. You also had soon-to-be ROY Tyreke Evans, trailblazer Brandon Jennings (first American to go “international one-and-done”), former Player of the Year and reigning National Champion Tyler Hansbrough, future All-Star Demar Derozan, and several other high-profile players from major NCAA programs.
There was a lot of star power, but the most popular table – more so than those of future Hall-of-Famers – belonged to Ricky Rubio. Journalists from all over the world swarmed him throughout the session. Flashes every time he smiled. Exaggerated laughter every time he said something even remotely funny. The attention was no surprise. The previous summer, he’d started – as a 17-year-old – against the Redeem Team in the Gold Medal game. He was 2009’s Luka, the prodigy (pro at 15, success in the 2nd-best league on the planet) that was going to take the NBA by storm.
If you read a pre-draft scouting report for Rubio, you’ll find scouts raving about things like vision, size for the position, IQ, feel…you see where I’m going with this.
Back to LaMelo Ball. Honestly, I’m not a LaMelo guy. Much of #KnicksTwitter has fallen in love with him, and many scouts share their belief in his star potential. But no matter how hard I try, I can’t see it. I’ve watched as much tape as I can get my hands on, including every second of his best pro game, and read countless articles and scouting reports – most of them glowing – and still, all I see is a 6’7 Rubio (minus the defense). Then I go on Twitter, find yet another image of Mitch and RJ with LaMelo photoshopped in between and…ugh.
I want to feel better about this. I want to be convinced that the hype is warranted. I want to know that if he does end up as a Knick, and he has what it takes to thrive there. Simply put, I want to believe. But I can’t get there alone. Enter Spencer Pearlman – wonderful scout, contributor at The Stepien, and former Draft Consultant for the Phoenix Suns.
Let’s find out why many scouts are so high on LaMelo Ball.
A scout and non-believer talk LaMelo Ball:
1. As someone who’s high on LaMelo, what weakness or question mark in his game are you most concerned about?
SPENCER: The biggest thing is the shot. Though I buy it, it’s far from a sure thing. The reason I buy it, though, is because of his touch in the paint, the form improvements over the last few years (though it still needs work), and his current percentages from above the break on the PnR / DHO. Above the break is where you make space as an engine G, so him shooting 33% (11/33) from there gives me hope. In addition, if you clean up the shot selection (which should come pretty easily playing with better talent), the numbers should improve.
After that, it’d be defense. Though he’s a smart player on offense and has had legit nice rotations on D (both reasons why I think he can be a good overall defensive player), he has to improve his focus, footwork, and finishing the possession. He is prone to playing too close to his man too far from the action and not contesting after making a nice read (most often in the paint where he’ll swipe at the ball instead of going straight up), but these things can improve with focus improvements. It’s important to keep in mind that this was essentially the first time in his life he was asked to play defense. His footwork can improve with technique work, but I doubt he’ll ever be as technically sound as Frank is at the point of attack. Defense is heavily scheme-based, and no matter what scheme you’re in, team defense is always more important than individual. So if he cleans up the PoA footwork a bit to where he won’t be exploited *that* often, and his rotations become more consistent (again, he’s had flashes), there is a path to LaMelo being a good defender. He has the IQ – just needs the off-ball focus and footwork improvements.
2. The non-scoring floor general is near extinction. Today, the overwhelming majority of initiators – especially on good teams – are scorers. Even guys you’d still describe as pass-first (Chris Paul, for example) are great shooters/scorers. You talked about the jumper, and other scouting reports point to LaMelo’s finishing in the paint (due to “average” athleticism) as a weakness, too. So how does a pass-first player who struggles to score efficiently become elite in today’s NBA? How good of a scorer does he need to become to maximize his playmaking, and how confident are you that he’ll get there?
SPENCER: I actually don’t think the finishing is an issue. He’ll get stronger, which will help him absorb contact, but he’s shown this year he can finish in the paint and through contact. His ability to finish with either hand is a big plus also, especially considering many players his age can’t. And again, the touch.
Answering your question, though: I don’t think he has to be an elite scorer – he just has to be a threat and be aggressive (within reason), which isn’t something we’ll have to worry about. He has deep range now, and, again, the above-the-break 3, he shot 33% on 33 attempts (which is a solid base to go from). If the percentage continues to improve, which I think it will, defenses won’t be able to go under the screen – even at 33% on solid volume, defenses might not be comfortable doing that. He has shown flashes of pull-ups also, and his quick transition from handle to shooting forces the defense to be ready for a shot all over the court. I really think he just has to be a willing scorer and someone who is *around* league average TS% – that’s really it.
Because I think that’s the base, I’m pretty confident. If you want an example, look at Ricky Rubio – elite passer, questionable scorer all-around, and never eclipsing league average efficiency. However, he’s still a big positive impact player on offense because of the passing. If you take Rubio, take it a step up in terms of passing (though maybe that’s pushing it), and give him a more aggressive scoring mindset with around league-average efficiency, that’s a big + on offense…in theory, of course.
A scout and non-believer talk LaMelo Ball:
3. After watching NBL game footage and digging into stats (the top players NEVER produce as much when playing in other leagues), it seems the level of competition is relatively weak. You told me previously that the Israeli, French, and German leagues (re: Deni and Killian) are better. How do you factor the quality of NBL competition into what you saw from LaMelo both statistically and on tape?
SPENCER: Eh, I mean you factor it in for sure, but it’s not something I’m weighing heavily. LaMelo is skilled with a high IQ – those things tend to translate. If you want to put a negative spin on it, you can say the league wasn’t good and he didn’t put up good box score stats; if you want to put a positive spin on it, which I think is the way to go, you can say his PIPM scores on both ends are positive (showing positive impact) despite the poor shooting numbers; you can point to the improvement when he was handling the ball full-time; you can point to the fact that he was the only perimeter creator when he wasn’t playing with Brooks (requiring full defensive attention); and you can say that he’d have looked better (and had better stats, regular and advanced) with a better team (shoutout to his teammates that missed an insane number of open looks) or even with slightly better shot selection. His tape pops, though, and they’re plays he’s been making for years…only this time as an 18-year-old against grown men. Regardless of how good the league is, pros are still pros…and the NBL has former NBA guys, European vets, and good college players.
(I should also note the Israeli league isn’t *that* much better – I’d say they’re pretty close.)
4. Let’s talk shot selection and concerns about, as other reports have alluded to, “loose play.” We know these aren’t basketball IQ issues, so how do we explain the poor shots and forced plays leading to turnovers? Arrogance/overconfidence? Carelessness? Lack of trust in teammates? A result of the pressure that comes with being a star?
The explanation I keep seeing points to “immaturity,” and most scouts think he’ll grow out of it. My question is, why are you so confident he’ll become a better decision-maker? (I could rattle off plenty of NBA vets – stars included – that still take horrible shots and make bad decisions.) What is it about LaMelo that suggests it’s only temporary, and if it’s not, how much will it hurt his ability to be great?
I think it started with a general lack of coaching. Prior to this year, he was given full and free rein to do whatever he wanted – I’m sure everyone has seen the videos of him pulling up from halfcourt for fun. That carried over into this year a bit, but his selection improved *at least* a little. I think the biggest issue with shot selection this year was he was the only consistent perimeter creator on the team – he had to take some of the shots because there was no other dual threat. When he shared the court with Brooks, we didn’t see the same bad looks that we saw otherwise. I don’t think it’s fair to call that lack of trust in teammates, but I can understand why some would.
My reason for it being temporary, at least to a certain extent (we’ll still see some questionable shots going forward), is because he’ll be playing with better players, running better plays, and coached out of the bad shots. The ISOs that led nowhere killed him this year; remove those and “bad shots” really aren’t being talked about as much. And for the record, the deep above-the-break threes, I’m okay with him taking, assuming percentages hold up or improve.
If he is unable to improve his shot selection, I think he’ll still be a positive impact player on offense by quite a bit — it’ll just be limited because (in a far too simplistic manner of describing this) instead of whipping the ball around for a better look, he’d be settling for a bad one.
A scout and non-believer talk LaMelo Ball:
5. Are you concerned at all, regardless of team/city, that the distractions that come with being a Ball might affect him negatively? And then you throw in NY, which was too lit for Joakim Noah and has chewed up and spit out PLENTY across all sports…why is LaMelo built for this?
Nah, I’m not concerned. Reason being, he’s been in the spotlight and he’s still gotten better every year. On top of that he’s still underage, and he’s a pretty easy figure to spot out if he’s somewhere he shouldn’t be, haha.
But, yeah, he’s built for it because he’s been in the spotlight for years. Honestly, aside from that, I have no real reason to think he is…which I guess isn’t great, but on the flip side, I have no reasons whatsoever to think he isn’t.
COMPARISONS: I’ve pulled comps from across the internet – respond however you see fit.
Shaun Livingston (NBADraft.net): Ridiculous – LaMelo has a better handle, better vision IMO, and is way more aggressive shooting.
Ricky Rubio / Caris LaVert (Bleacher Report): Ricky is a better comp than LaVert because of the obvious passing similarities from vision to ability, flashiness, and offensive concerns, but LaMelo’s aggression shooting still sets him apart. LaVert I don’t see at all, though I’ve loved his game since Michigan and remain a big fan…it’s just an odd comparison, I think.
6’7 Jason Williams (multiple, including you): Yeah, I think this one is the best…though still not perfect. It’s the best because it captures the flash, passing ability, and a higher aggressiveness shooting off the bounce, but I think LaMelo has higher defensive impact potential due to size / versatility. LaMelo shoots a bit more, too, from what I remember.
Penny Hardaway (Complex): Lol, no. I know many reading this probably aren’t old enough to remember him, and to be fair, his early years I’ve only caught on rewatches, but this is a very bad comparison.
Trae Young (CBSSports): Nope, though there are passing similarities – LaMelo’s height gives him the edge because he can see above defenses (and I think he’s more creative), and he’s a better defender than Trae (with more potential). On the flip side, Trae is a much better shooter, so it doesn’t work from that angle, either.
Spencer Dinwiddie (NBA.com): No – Dinwiddie was more composed on both sides of the ball coming out of college, and LaMelo is far more skilled as a passer…like, way way way more skilled (and is a better ballhandler as well).
Lonzo Ball (multiple): I can’t just say a few sentences about this one, so forgive me…but this is the worst comparison because a) it’s lazy, and b) they play nothing alike. LaMelo’s halfcourt game and passing ability blows Lonzo’s out of the water – those who remember Lonzo in college will know that he thrived in transition, which LaMelo does as well, but his half-court game, most notably in the PnR, was nowhere near as advanced as LaMelo’s. Lonzo is a good passer, but he’s a connecting piece in the halfcourt. LaMelo can be an offense unto himself in a PnR system because of his vision, creativity, and threat of the shot. I really don’t like this comparison at all.
A scout and non-believer talk LaMelo Ball:
I want to thank Spencer, both for his time and expertise and for making me feel better. It was nice hearing about Melo’s growth as a player over the past few years. Not all players are capable of the drastic improvement Spencer alluded to, but put a guy with the work ethic and desire to get better with a revamped player development staff and a basketball junkie like Thibs, and the possibilities are tantalizing.
Still, I’m not a believer just yet. Still more skeptical than optimistic. Some of my concerns have nothing to do with him –
- Americans going “international one-and-done” have not had much success. I can’t shake the fear of LaMelo becoming Emmanuel Mudiay, who put up similar numbers in a comparable league back in 2015.
- International point guards in general – American or otherwise – have struggled recently (Luka developed as a wing and for countless reasons doesn’t belong anywhere near this convo).
– and some are based on issues above: I mean, Spencer’s two biggest concerns are the two most important things in the modern NBA! The jumper, while improved, still has a long way to go, and as discussed in my second question: the 2020 point guard is a scorer – he either shoots the sh** out of it, or he explodes past defenders to the bucket at will. LaMelo’s shot is “far from a sure thing,” and he isn’t explosive. How is this not worrisome?
To me, drafting him to become a cornerstone means expecting him to buck multiple trends: you expect him to be the first international one-and-done to become a star; you expect him to be the first non-NCAA point guard since Tony Parker (20 years ago!) to become a star; and you expect him, in a shooter’s league and in what’s become a scorer’s role, to dominate with passing.
Unless your expectations aren’t that high. Maybe in a draft like this, which seems to have far more questions than answers, the next Ricky Rubio is not something I should fear. Maybe entering next season with a passer / ball-handler who can make young scorers better and who, despite his flaws, has an overall positive impact is a great outcome. And then, in a few years, maybe there’s a Lonzo-esque jump in his three-ball, and now you’ve really got something?
I can do maybes all day long. That’s how much uncertainty there is with all these top prospects, not just LaMelo. That’s why people are so down on this draft. It’s not that it’s “bad;” it’s that there’s no sure thing, and people hate being unsure.
They also hate pieces that end without a clear position, so here’s mine:
If we stay put and he somehow falls to 6: Take him. This is where I’ve been swayed. While I’d love someone who can shoot, his overall value + potential is too good to pass up.
If we move into the Top 3: I’m not there yet, and frankly, I’m not there on anyone. Especially at #1. Trade down, please.
“We need LaMelo in NY. Do whatever you gotta do. Trade up-” Let me stop you right there. NO. NO. NO. You don’t give up assets to move up in a draft filled with question marks.
For more elite NBA Draft analysis, follow Spencer on Twitter @skpearlman and check out his work on The Stepien.