For the Knicks to finally get it right in the draft, they might need to shift their approach to the lottery.
As the New York Knicks prepare for their fourth straight trip to the lottery, fifth in six years, fans are hoping this will finally be the year the team wins it. However, the odds are not good. As you can see below, it’s more likely the Knicks will pick in the 7th or 8th spot than first overall.
They only have a 9% chance of winning the lottery and a 18.2% chance of landing one of the top 2 prospects: Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball.
Lottery Odds – Knicks
1st pick – 9.0%, 2nd pick – 9.2%, 3rd pick – 9.4%, 4th pick – 9.6%, 6th pick –8.6%, 7th pick – 29.8%, 8th – 20.6%, 9th pick – 3.7%, 10th pick – 0.1.%
Historically, superstars are drafted within the top 3 picks, maybe the top 5 in a really good draft. But if the Knicks don’t strike lottery luck, or trade to move up, it doesn’t mean they will miss out again. When you look back at the past ten drafts you will notice that the best player in almost half of them was selected outside the top 5.
Best player by draft class
2019 – Ja Morant, 2nd overall pick
2018 – Luka Doncic, 3rd overall pick
2017 – Jayson Tatum, 3rd overall pick
2016 – Ben Simmons, 1st overall pick
2015 – Devin Booker, 13th overall pick
2014 – Joel Embiid, 3rd overall pick
2013 – Giannis Antetokounmpo, 15th overall pick
2012 – Anthony Davis, 1st overall pick
2011 – Kawhi Leonard, 15th overall pick
2010 – Paul George, 10th overall pick
That number might actually be higher depending on your point of view. Many would argue that Donovan Mitchell is the best player from the 2017 draft based on his body of work, not Jayson Tatum or De’Aaron Fox. So there is reason for optimism.
But how do the Knicks find that hidden gem? It’s simple, by changing their approach to the draft.