Despite entering 2019-20 with minimal expectations, Elfrid Payton has managed to showcase long-term value to the New York Knicks. Should he be re-signed?
When the New York Knicks signed point guard Elfrid Payton, the response could be generously described as lukewarm. Payton had struggled to live up the hype that follows a top-10 draft pick, and his relationship with Scott Perry appeared to be his only saving grace.
In the months that have followed, Payton has managed to exceed all expectations and showcase the potential to be a long-term answer at a position of need.
Payton is a pure point guard, which will inevitably garner split opinions about his fit in the modern NBA. His first instinct is to pass, and his proficiency as a scorer isn’t exactly a hidden gem that he can break out at moments of need.
Payton has made the players around him better, however, and has even helped the Knicks win.
The counterpoint can be made that Payton appears to be whoever he is going to be. There hasn’t been much statistical growth, and there have even been signs of regression.
Payton has made his mark in New York, however, and shouldn’t be written off without a serious look in free agency.
Setting The Table
When it comes to running a championship-caliber offense, a team needs a multifaceted system in place. Offense in the NBA is as complex as ever before, despite the misguided belief that you can simply dribble up the court, launch three-point field goals, and expect to win series against elite opponents.
While the days of winning a title by playing through one facilitator may be distant, there will never stop being a place for players who can get an offense into its sets.
Payton may have his flaws, but he’s one of the best passers in the NBA. Statistically, he’s currently averaging 7.2 assists to just 2.1 assists on a per-game basis.
That translates to an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.36—the best mark of any player in the Top 10 in assists per game.
To make matters more impressive, Payton is doing this in just 27.7 minutes per game. As such, his assists average actually translates to 9.3 per 36 minutes—good for sixth in the NBA.
Considering Payton averaged 9.2 assists per 36 minutes in 2018-19, it’s fair to expect that number to stick.
Value
For pure point guards more than anyone in the NBA, basic statistics can be incredibly misleading. Players who dominate the ball can rack up assists, if not points, but don’t actually complete the job of making the game easier for those around them.
For the Knicks, a deeper dive into Payton’s impact on the game makes it difficult to argue against bringing him back for the 2020-21 season.
Thus far in 2019-20, the Knicks have accumulated a net rating of -3.0 with Payton on the court—the second-best on-court mark on the team. When the former Louisiana at Lafayette star comes off the floor, that number dips to -8.5.
In other words: By the measure of net rating, the Knicks are 5.5 points per 100 possessions better when Payton is on the court than when he isn’t.
That’s due in large part to the fact that the Knicks are scoring 7.0 more points per 100 possessions when Payton is on the court. That can be directly translated to the fact that he’s the best passer on the team, as well as a positive influence on his teammates.
That much is proven by the fact that RJ Barrett is shooting 5.4 percent higher from beyond the arc with Payton on the court than when he isn’t.
The Dilemma
The dilemma facing the New York Knicks is threefold. It starts with the fact that, as a pending unrestricted free agent, Payton will only return to the Knicks if he chooses to—meaning New York could be tasked with overpaying to keep him beyond 2019-20.
That’s less of a concern on the dollar front than it is the length of the contract, as the Knicks are preparing to pursue a talented crop of free agents in 2021.
The second issue facing re-signing Payton is the fact that Frank Ntilikina will still be present on a far more team-friendly deal. The final season of his rookie-scale contract will be 2020-21, meaning he could potentially be paid less money over less time for similar defensive value.
For a Knicks team that’s somewhere between pinching short-term pennies and revitalizing a devastated basketball city, Ntilikina plus a pick could be the more appealing option.
While having both Payton and Ntilikina on the roster is an option, the third point of emphasis is what complicates matters: The NBA Draft. Many speculate that the Knicks will attempt to draft a point guard in June, meaning one of those two players would be the odd man out.
For a Knicks team that shouldn’t be picky in its approach to finding the long-awaited No. 1 star, however, an opening for a point guard may still remain.
A number of scenarios may still play out, but should the New York Knicks find a need for a playmaking point guard come July, re-signing Elfrid Payton should become a priority.