New York Knicks fans have been quick to vilify Julius Randle. The truth is: He’s been playing at a more than respectable level during the 2019-20 season.
Any time the New York Knicks spend money, fans tend to assume the worst. This is something of a defense mechanism, as the Knicks have been burned—repeatedly—by big contracts since the turn of the century.
It’s become common for fans to list Julius Randle as the new disappointment in New York lore, but the 25-year-old has actually pieced together a strong first season in orange and blue.
Randle has been something of a journeyman, now playing for his third team in six seasons. That label is a bit misleading, however, as the Los Angeles Lakers infamously undervalued his growth as a player, and his stint with the New Orleans Pelicans was a personal prove-it year.
Still just 25 years of age, Randle has room for improvement and time on his side—an encouraging combination for a player who has the tools to be successful.
Unfortunately, the Knicks are just 21-45 through 66 games. Being that Randle was New York’s biggest and most lucrative signing this past offseason, that’s resulted in a great deal of blame being shifted in his direction.
Thankfully for the Knicks, Randle has been much better in orange and blue than the narratives have made him out to be.
The Context: The Contract
The context of this conversation is as follows: New York expected to sign a player of Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving‘s caliber but ended up inking Randle and a handful of journeymen instead. That has especially upset those who focus on Rande’s contract.
The former Kentucky Wildcats star signed a three-year, $62.1 million deal with the Knicks—a contract that really isn’t as bad as it seems.
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Randle is being paid $18 million in 2019-20—a figure that isn’t quite as big as it’s perceived to be under the current salary cap. Come 2020-21, he’ll be due $18.9 million—meaning he’s owed a more than palatable $36.9 million over his first two seasons in New York.
That third season at $19.8 million only has $4 million guaranteed, meaning the Knicks could part with him as soon as next summer if he turns out to be an inadequate fit.
That would be just in time for a 2021 class of free agents that far exceeds the star power of the 2020 grouping.
If you’re following along and doing the math, that means Randle is actually guaranteed just—it’s a relative to the cap, folks—$40.9 million over three years.
That’s a healthy $21.2 million less than advertised.
It also means Rande is being paid less than $14 million per season. All things considered, that’s an absolute bargain of a contract for a player who can produce at a more than respectable level on the offensive end of the floor.
As for where the $62.1 million comes from, Randle has $1.8 million annual incentives—earned only if he’s able to make the All-Star Game.
In that event, he’d be playing at a level that’s well worth the money—and quite appealing to free agents in 2021.
Offensive Improvements
The Knicks entered free agency looking for a player who could lead the offense as a scorer and playmaker. Randle may or may not be that player, but he’s certainly a valuable offensive presence when one looks at what he can do.
It’s all about designing a system that will help highlight his strengths and mask his weaknesses—the goal of any successful team in any sport.
Randle is currently averaging 19.5 points, 2.4 offensive rebounds, and 3.1 assists on 46.0 percent shooting from the field. Those numbers are heavily skewed, however, by the unimaginative offense that the Knicks ran for the first 22 games of the season.
During that 22-game stretch, Randle averaged 16.8 points and 8.5 rebounds on 44.1 percent shooting from the field, as well as a dreadful mark of 66.1 percent at the free throw line.
Since Mike Miller took over as head coach, Randle has become an entirely different player. He’s averaging 20.9 points and 10.4 rebounds on 46.8 percent shooting from the floor, as well as a 77.2 percent mark from the charity stripe.
In other words: With just a change of head coach, Randle has increased his averages by 4.1 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.7 percent shooting from the field, and 11.1 percent shooting from the free throw line.
It’s no coincidence that the Knicks went 4-18 (.182) during that first stretch, and have gone 17-27 (.386) during the second—an increase of 20.4 win percentage points.
Value
The general criticism of Randle has been that he produces strong surface numbers that lack any real substance. That’s an easy conclusion to jump to when your team is so far below .500 that restarting the season would have cons to pair with the pros.
Upon doing a deeper dive into the numbers, however, it appears as though that narrative doesn’t quite fit what’s actually happening at The Mecca.
Thus far in 2019-20, the Knicks have accumulated a net rating of -5.9 when Randle is on the court. That’s a discouraging number, but it’s worth noting that New York’s net rating drops to -8.4 when Randle isn’t on the floor.
In other words: The Knicks are 2.5 points per 100 possessions better with Randle than without him.
New York’s offensive rating is 3.7 points per 100 possessions higher with Randle than without him. If you prefer different advanced metrics: Randle has a positive Defensive Real Plus-Minus, as well as positive marks in Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, and Defensive Win Shares.
Perhaps this doesn’t measure up to Randle’s expected leap to stardom, but he’s being paid like a No. 2—and, more accurately, a No. 3.
If the New York Knicks continue to improve the roster, Julius Randle’s quietly team-friendly deal could prove far more beneficial than perceived.