New York Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina is quietly improving

New York Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina has an abundance of room for improvement, but he’s showing clear signs of progress.

The New York Knicks are not going to make the NBA Playoffs in 2019-20. That unfortunate reality is generally unaffected by COVID-19, as New York’s 4-18 start under David Fizdale all but eradicated its chances of an overachieving run to relevance.

Thankfully, not all has been lost during yet another underwhelming season at The Mecca.

After years of denial, the Knicks have finally embraced the need to rebuild from the ground up. Phil Jackson refused to trade away first-round draft picks, and Scott Perry has utilized those selections to build a young and quietly promising roster.

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No player embodies that quiet promise quite like Frank Ntilikina.

Ntilikina has a case for being the most polarizing athlete in all of New York sports. There are some who believe in his ability to make a team better, citing his defensive prowess and serviceable ability to get an offense into its sets.

There are others who believe a top-10 draft pick simply cannot settle into a role when the original expectation was borderline stardom.

Ntilikina’s offensive production has offered ammunition to the latter crowd. He’s averaging just 6.3 points and 3.0 assists per game, and is doing so in his third NBA season.

Worst of all: He’s shooting below 40 percent from the field, and 45is converting just 32.1 percent of his three-point field goals.

Still just 21 years old, however, Ntilikina is showing clear signs of rather drastic improvement.

Offensive Improvements

The shooting percentages are undeniably poor, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t reason for optimism. A fair starting point would be that Ntilikina is shooting 5.6 percent better from the field in 2019-20 than he did in 2018-19.

That’s a drastic improvement—one that illustrates growth as a player.

Thankfully for Ntilikina, it isn’t just one area in which he’s improved; he’s shown growth across the board. Ntilikina is shooting 44.4 percent from the field on two-point field goal attempts during the 2019-20 regular season.

That may be average, at best, but it’s an improvement of 7.3 percent from 2018-19—another illustration of clear growth as a player.

While 32.1 percent shooting from three won’t lead to a round of applause, it still serves as a 3.4-percent upgrade over last season. That’s a rather drastic improvement that, if sustained, would lead to Ntilikina shooting upwards of 35 percent from distance in 2020-21.

If you still aren’t encouraged, then try the fact that Ntilikina has improved his free throw percentage by 8.7 percent to a borderline elite mark of .864.

For those who prefer advanced metrics, this all leads to Ntilikina making a gargantuan jump in eFG% from .395 to .459. That, paired with averages of 10.8 points and 5.2 assists per 36 minutes, lends credence to the belief that Ntilikina is beginning to find his form.

Throw in the fact that Ntilikina had 20 points and 10 assists in his second-to-last game before the season was suspended, and it’s an easier time than ever to be optimistic.

A Player Comparison

Clearly, there’s still work to be done in the shooting department. There are vast examples of players who struggled early and improved over time, however, including the all but unanimously praised Marcus Smart of the Boston Celtics.

Smart has only shot above 40 percent from the field in one of his six seasons, and yet, he’s playing 32.5 minutes per game on a widely-praised contender.

Ntilikina is showing the potential to not only fill a similar role, but exceed it offensively. His eFG% of .459 is actually 3.7 percentage points higher than the .422 mark that Smart managed to accumulate during his third NBA season.

By comparison: Smart posted a slash line of .359/.283/.812 in his third season to Ntilikina’s .393/.321/.864.

Considering Ntilikina is surrounded by significantly less established than Smart was and is, that’s an encouraging sign. As the Knicks develop the likes of RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson; draft up-and-coming talent; and ideally make improvements through free agency, that will only increase Ntilikina’s room for growth.

If Ntilikina can continue to mirror the development of one Marcus Smart, it’s fair to believe that his overall value could soon follow.

Value To The Team

As previously stated, Frank Ntilikina has improved his eFG% by 6.4 percent from .395 to .459. That only scratches the surface of how advanced metrics illustrate his quiet growth into a quality contributor.

The most compelling evidence starts with Ntilikina posting positive marks in both Offensive (0.1) and Defensive (0.8) Win Shares on a team that’s gone just 21-45 through 66 games.

Those numbers may not jump off the page, but they show how Ntilikina has become a positive influence on both ends of the floor. That’s clearly illustrated by how he’s been able to help the Knicks’ second unit play at a borderline elite level.

For those who question the validity of that statement: The three-man lineup of Ntilikina, Bobby Portis, and Robinson has a Net Rating of +7.3 over the course of 429 possessions.

Defensively, that lineup ranks in the 95th percentile with a mark of 103.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. Offensively, they’ve produced to the point of ranking in the 75th percentile in eFG% while scoring a respectable 110.7 points per 100 possessions.

This mirrors 2018-19, when the three-man lineup of Ntilikina, Noah Vonleh, and Mitchell Robinson ranked in the 88th percentile in Defensive Rating.

In other words: Ntilikina can help a team play elite defense when surrounded by other committed defenders. If nothing else: That’s a piece of critical information to a franchise that has traditionally been at its best when it invests in defense, above all else.

Compounded by his steady improvements on the offensive end of the floor, Ntilikina is seemingly turning a corner as a two-way player.

If the New York Knicks are able to improve the quality of the overall roster, we may yet see Frank Ntilikina become the impact player who leaves the criticisms behind.