New York Knicks: Revisiting RJ Barrett’s Rookie of the Year odds
With Zion Williamson’s injury, how does the New York Knicks’ RJ Barrett stack up in the 2019-20 NBA Rookie of the Year race?
Previously, the following were the 2019-20 NBA Rookie of the Year odds from the Action Network, and they featured a prominent member of the New York Knicks:
Zion Williamson -125. 1. 69. +125. PF. Duke University. player. Pick Analysis
Pick Analysis. PG. Ja Morant +350. player. 211. Scouting Report. Murray State. 2
player. 27. Duke University. RJ Barrett +500. 3. Scouting Report. Pick Analysis. SF
While the award usually goes to the best performing rookie, it is difficult to win the award if the player cannot stay healthy. Only a total of five rookies have won the award while playing less than 60 games:
| Per | Per | Per | Per | Per | Per | Shoo | Shoo | Shoo | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Lg | Player | Tm | G ▲ |
MP | PTS | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
| 1985-86 | NBA | Patrick Ewing | NYK | 50 | 35.4 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | .474 | .000 | .739 |
| 1998-99 | NBA | Vince Carter | TOR | 50 | 35.2 | 18.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | .450 | .288 | .761 |
| 2011-12 | NBA | Kyrie Irving | CLE | 51 | 30.5 | 18.5 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | .469 | .399 | .872 |
| 2006-07 | NBA | Brandon Roy | POR | 57 | 35.4 | 16.8 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | .456 | .377 | .838 |
| 1962-63 | NBA | Terry Dischinger | CHZ | 57 | 40.2 | 25.5 | 8.0 | 3.1 | .512 | .770 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com
Looking at the list, one can easily deduce that if you were to win this award while playing under 50 games, you had to be quite the stud. While I can’t speak for Mr. Dischinger, the company of the other four seems pretty elite to me.
A recent example of when the number of games played mattered is Malcolm Brogdon‘s win over Joel Embiid for the 2016-17 Rookie of the Year title. Brogdon averaged 10.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game while Embiid finished out the year with 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. Embiid was, by far, the superior player but the voters judiciously decided that giving a yearly award to someone that could not stay on the court for even half the season is irrational.
So who will win the 2019-20 Rookie of the Year?
Zion Williamson
Zion Williamson has surgery today to repair torn meniscus in right knee and is expected to miss six to eight weeks, Pels say.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) October 21, 2019
This timeline has Zion Williamson missing around 20 to 30 games to start this season.
Seeing how this is Williamson’s third knee injury just this year (At Duke, summer league, and preseason), the Pelicans will potentially limit his play until the No. 1 overall pick proves his knee is 100 percent.
So historically speaking, it’s highly improbable that Williamson will win the rookie of the year. I would not be surprised if Williamson has a rookie season similar to Embiid where he will be under heavy monitoring.
At the end of the day, the last thing the Pelicans want is to have Williamson turn out like Greg Oden. Fighting for the longevity of Williamson will be the kind of forward-thinking that the Pelicans will opt for under David Griffin. Williamson sits at +150 while being at -150 just about a month ago. The longer he sits on the Pelicans bench, the higher those odds will be.
So with the impression that Williamson is not fully healthy this season, it comes down to two competitors for the award.