New York Knicks: 2019 NBA Draft Lottery odds for each possible scenario
The New York Knicks can land at one of five spots in the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery. What are the odds and what does it mean?
Tuesday, May 14 is finally here for the New York Knicks. It’s the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery, which will decide the order of the 14 non-playoff teams for June’s selection show. The past two lotteries have seen the Knicks land eighth in 2017 and ninth in 2018.
However, 2019 is different, as New York finished with the NBA’s worst record. While they share identical odds with other teams for the first overall pick, they can’t fall lower than fifth overall on lottery night.
Representing the Knicks in Chicago, IL will be Patrick Ewing, who was the pick when the Knicks won the first-ever draft lottery in 1985.
The No. 1 draft choice is hardly guaranteed, though, as obvious luck is needed, and there are considerable odds for each spot the Scott Perry and Steve Mills-led front office can land, so these are the following scenarios and what they mean:
No. 5: 47.9 percent
So the New York Knicks lost the most games of any NBA team, and they can’t fall lower than fifth in the draft, but the odds of actually landing at No. 5 are quite high — nearly five times as high as one spot up the order.
It’s a silver lining compared to other non-playoff teams’ potential fates, but also a consequence, since this the likelihood of this draft positioning dwarfs any other scenario.
Picking fifth is not the end-all, be-all for New York. They can still find talented players who are first-year contributors or grow into All-Stars down the road, although around this spot is where the order of “best player available” starts to cloud.
Our top five has Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver rounding out the list, but with the uncertainty of this draft, he can land as high as second or third or drop down the top 10. The Knicks even like Cam Reddish, who struggled in one year at Duke, but is a potential riser based on his high school profile and smaller role next to other, more talented teammates.
Culver or Reddish could be the pick, but if the Knicks find players like Nassir Little or Coby White intriguing, there is a case for either to land this high because of the fluctuant player values after the top three.
There is no concrete finish to the back-end of the top five, and that makes it somewhat of a disaster scenario for the Knicks. It’s no Zion Williamson. It’s no Ja Morant. It’s probably no RJ Barrett. It’s likely someone with questions on his game who’s a greater risk to succeed.