New York Knicks: Staying realistic about 2019 NBA Draft Lottery

As the New York Knicks sit 11-47, it hardly guarantees them the first or second pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. If anything, they have a greater chance of picking lower.

“Tank for Zion Williamson” has become a theme of the 2018-19 season, and not just for the New York Knicks. The Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns all own records within a few games of the Knicks who, at 11-47, have the NBA’s second-worst mark.

The team that possesses the worst record at season’s end will sit atop the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery. In the past, that carried a 25 percent chance to attain the No. 1 pick. The Phoenix Suns, in 2018, fulfilled that with Deandre Ayton.

It changes for 2019, however, with the new, smoothened lottery odds at the top. The worst three records own equal chances at the first overall pick. The fourth, fifth and sixth-worst records are barely behind them.

That only begins the realization for the Knicks’ questionable chances at No. 1 and Williamson, who suffered a mild knee sprain in Wednesday’s Duke vs. North Carolina game. The odds paint a picture that gives them a greater track towards the middle of the top 10 than the first two or three selections:

• Worst Record: No. 1 (14 percent), No. 2 (13.4 percent), No. 3 (12.7 percent), No. 4 12.0 percent), No. 5 (47.9 percent)
• Second Worst Record: No. 1 (14 percent), No. 2 (13.4 percent), No. 3 (12.7 percent), No. 4 12.0 percent), No. 5 (27.8 percent), No. 6 (20 percent)
• Third Worst Record: No. 1 (14 percent), No. 2 (13.4 percent), No. 3 (12.7 percent), No. 4 12.0 percent), No. 5 (14.8 percent), No. 6 (26 percent), No. 7 (7 percent)
• Fourth Worst Record: No. 1 (12.5 percent), No. 2 (12.2 percent), No. 3 (11.9 percent), No. 4 (11.5 percent), No. 5 (7.2 percent), No. 6 (25.7 percent), No. 7 (16.7 percent), No. 8 (2.2 percent)
• Fifth Worst Record: No. 1 (10.5 percent), No. 2 (10.5 percent), No. 3 (10.6 percent), No. 4 ( 10.5 percent), No. 5 (2.2 percent), No. 6 (19.6 percent), No. 7 (26.7 percent), No. 8 (8.7 percent), No. 9 (0.6 percent)

Right now, as the second-worst record, the Knicks have a 47.8 percent chance to land outside the top four. It’s not a doomsday scenario, but potentially removes them from Williamson, RJ Barrett, Ja Morant, Cam Reddish and Rui Hachimura, all of whom project as top picks in the 2019 NBA Draft.

If the Knicks win more than once every 18 games, they could even land the third or fourth-worst record. That puts them in position to land outside the top five and closer to No. 10, even with the smoothened odds.

Does this make a trade likelier if it’s not first overall? The Knicks were linked to Anthony Davis, but the lower that pick is, the less value it has, making player assets a larger focus of any trade package with the Pelicans.

Maybe another team has enough interest in this pick if it falls outside the top three or top five. Draft prospects exist beyond the aforementioned players, and it takes just one team to have interest. Will they have the NBA player the Knicks want, though?

It’s all hypothetical, but realistic for the New York Knicks, as the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery’s focus becomes greater. There are still 24 games to create clarity on May’s anticipated Tuesday night. Once that happens, doubt will cast aside for what’s likely next in the Big Apple.