New York Knicks should pass on Dennis Smith Jr., again

The Dallas Mavericks made Dennis Smith Jr. available for trade, someone the New York Knicks passed up in the 2017 NBA Draft. Is now the time to make a move?

The New York Knicks selected Frank Ntilikina one spot ahead of fellow point guard Dennis Smith Jr. in the 2017 NBA Draft. Debate continued into the 2017-18 season, with the Knicks at the crux of it: did they choose the right player?

Only 18 months into this, one of those players is likely on the move, and it’s not Ntilikina, the subject of criticism in 2018-19. Per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the Dallas Mavericks are “escalating discussions” to move Smith, with the Orlando Magic as one suitor.

The Knicks were not mentioned in this report, but it’s easy to connect them with Smith due to the past. They have an uncertain future at point guard; Emmanuel Mudiay will hit free agency; Ntilikina’s development has yet to take off.

Smith is under contract through 2020-21, topping out at $5.68 million. He’s slightly cheaper than Ntilikina, what Mudiay may cost to re-sign and to select a point guard in the top five, but that doesn’t mean he’s the ideal, next distributor at a fluctuant position for New York.

On a 24-58 Mavericks team, Smith had every opportunity to shine, breaking through with 15.2 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game. Positive stats at the forefront, of course, until it moves towards his 39.5 shooting percentage on 14.8 shots in 29.7 minutes. He turned the ball over 2.8 times per game and shot 31.3 percent from behind the arc.

Shift towards 2018-19, and some of the peripherals are better, including 44.3 percent shooting and 37.5 percent on three-pointers. He’s also taking four fewer shots per game, becoming more efficient, but 3.8 assists to 3.1 turnovers are eye-popping. Per NBA Advanced Stats, this assist-to-turnover mark ranks 175th in the league.

For comparison, Mudiay ranks 99th. Ntilikina is 105th.

These numbers are with a lower usage percentage — 28.9 in 2017-18 to 22.8 in 2018-19 — as well. So his role has decreased, likely with Luka Doncic‘s presence, but resulted in carelessness with the basketball. ” [Rick] Carlisle has often been frustrated with Smith’s decision-making, league sources said,” Wojnarowski added in the aforementioned report.

Defensively, the Knicks have seen poor play at point guard from Mudiay and his 117 defensive rating. It’s a contribution towards why they allow 115.8 points per game — the NBA’s third-worst mark. Plus, head coach David Fizdale’s defensive sets have occasionally hidden the fourth-year point guard.

Mudiay may not stick with New York past April, but if Smith replaces him, defensively, he’s arguably not an improvement. Past knee issues may play into this, including a torn ACL. Mavs Moneyball noted a recent uptick in this part of his game, however, so there may be light at the end of the tunnel.

Then there’s this anecdote from Marc Stein of The New York Times, on Smith working next to a superior distributor that takes the ball out of his hands:

"“The instant emergence of the Dallas rookie Luka Doncic, combined with longstanding skepticism about Smith’s ability to flourish alongside Doncic in an off-the-ball capacity, has spawned the expectation among many executives that Smith will eventually be moved.”"

On the Knicks, Smith might revert to his norm of 2017-18 for the rest of the season, given the absence of a Doncic-like presence. Once Kristaps Porzingis returns, though, he’s the guy. Not the North Carolina State product. Even more so if a marquee free agent signs in July. It may eventually match the current situation in Dallas, which lasted just three months.

In the interim, Smith has to share the basketball with Tim Hardaway Jr., pending he’s not part of a trade package. Two ball-dominant guards in the backcourt, with defensive troubles, is still a downgrade from Mudiay, who’s more passive.

Aside from that, acquiring Smith could mean sending a young asset back. Is he worth a first-round pick? Ntilikina? A swap of historically-tied guards would be questionable from the Knicks perspective, surrendering someone that’s just 20-years-old and barely into their development. Smith is just 21, so this does not move the needle.

The New York Knicks’ 2019-20 point guard might not be on their roster now, but someone who increases the offense’s volatility and brings questions with fit, makes Smith potentially in the Big Apple a cautionary take.