New York Knicks: Over/Under on Kevin Knox’s Stat Line
Points Per Game: 15.0
With Porzingis out until at least Christmas Day with a rehabilitating ACL injury and question marks at both forward positions, it is likely that Knox will be a starter and receive around 25-30 minutes per game in his first season.
Similar to Porzingis, Knox will be given an ample amount of shot attempts as one of the Knicks premier scoring options outside of Tim Hardaway Jr., Enes Kanter, and possibly Trey Burke (depending on his role for this season). But even with the increase in time and shot attempts, I still am skeptical about his production in scoring.
There is no doubt Knox has shown he has the potential to become a scoring threat from his performance in Summer League, and even more so than Porzingis did in his first Summer League. But the level of competition is leaps ahead in the NBA, with more physical defenders and quicker gameplay.
Prediction: Knox, 18, has a lot to learn still and seems to be the mold of a player who can become one of the best scorers in the league, but for now, I am betting on the under. I see him scoring just under 15.0 points per game, similar to Porzingis’s rookie season.
Field Goal Percentage: 40.0%
Going along with Knox’s scoring, he proved to be a bit streaky with his shot in Summer League. But all of this comes with the notion that a lot of these premier young players like Knox and other lottery picks are going to be thrown into unfamiliar situations while playing in Summer League.
Stats are not a telling point for Summer League. Any team trying to develop their young players will give them a lot more responsibility and control when playing in exhibition games like Summer League. It gives them the chance to understand leadership and the flaws in each of their respective games (e.g., Mitchell Robinson, a 6-11 center, calling plays from the top of the key).
With less familiarity in shot selection, comes a lower field goal percentage.
Prediction: With that being said, I think Knox will put up a higher field goal percentage than he did in Summer League (35.1 percent) as he will not be the Knicks’ first option to start and will get up more shots he is comfortable with. I believe he will shoot above the 40 percent mark in his rookie season.
Three-Point Field Goal Percentage: 35.0%
Though Knox only shot 35.1 percent from the field in Summer League, he was around the same area for 3-point percentage, 35.7 percent, thanks to catching fire from deep against the Lakers. It was an impressive showing for Knox, but we still have to take into account that it was Summer League competition.
At Kentucky, Knox shot 34.1 percent from behind the arc. He has definitely improved his range since then, but it will be hard to determine if he can replicate his 3-point percentage from college and Summer League to the NBA right away.
It won’t be an easy transition for the neophyte, but he does have the right mechanics to improve his shot steadily as he fills out his frame and becomes stronger. He will have more balance and coordination with his shot as a result.
Prediction: I would put Knox under the 35.0 percent mark. I can see him shooting around 30-33 percent in his first year as he faces up against better defenses in the NBA. Though, I have no doubt it will improve as he gets more comfortable with the game.
Free-Throw Percentage: 75.0%
I would say that this would be easier to predict. Knox has been, so far, reliable from the line shooting 77.4 percent from the line at Kentucky and 80.8 percent at Summer League.
Prediction: With high expectations and a roaring fanbase at Kentucky, I expect Knox to remain consistent at the Garden and get the over as pertaining to free-throw percentage.