The New York Knicks are dominating in a small sample size with a specific lineup. Has head coach Jeff Hornacek found his Death Lineup?
Since the Golden State Warriors took over as the class of the NBA in 2014-15, no two words have struck more fear in the hearts of coaches than, “Death Lineup.” When the Warriors rolled out their fearful five, games were often decided in a matter of possessions—and that was before Kevin Durant signed with the 2015 NBA champions.
While the New York Knicks are still a far cry from the Warriors, it appears as though head coach Jeff Hornacek is close to finding a Death Lineup of his own.
With the necessary disclaimer that we’re working with a small sample size, the Knicks have found a two-man lineup that’s done significant damage. For as well as they’ve played, that lineup doesn’t feature Tim Hardaway Jr., Courtney Lee, or Frank Ntilikina.
The duo that’s at the heart of what’s shaping up to be the foundation of a Death Lineup is that of Doug McDermott and Kristaps Porzingis.
The Knicks are experiencing some success when McDermott plays small forward and Porzingis is stationed at power forward. The Knicks are outscored by 6.6 points per 100 possessions with McDermott at the 3 and Porzingis at the 4, but that’s a broad statement.
It’s a lineup that doesn’t always work, but has found some intriguing success with certain combinations.
New York is outscoring opponents by 10.9 points per 100 possessions during the 66 possessions it’s played with Jarrett Jack, Courtney Lee, McDermott, Porzingis, and Enes Kanter on the court. It has a net rating of +20.0 during the 42 possessions it’s run with Ntilikina, Hardaway, McDermott, Porzingis, and Kyle O’Quinn.
For as intriguing as those numbers may be, all pale in comparison to the level at which New York is performing with McDermott at power forward and Porzingis at center.
In 47 possessions with McDermott at the 4 and Porzingis at the 5, the Knicks rank in the 100th percentile in net rating. New York also ranks in the 100th percentile in defensive rating, offensive turnover percentage, defensive turnover percentage, and defensive free throw rate.
It ranks in the 98th percentile in offensive rating, the 99th percentile in offensive free throw rate, the 96th percentile in defensive eFG%, and the 90th percentile in opponent offensive rebound percentage.
With averages of 119.1 points per 100 possessions and 82.6 points allowed per 100 possessions, the Knicks are elite with McDermott and Porzingis at the 4 and the 5.
Clearly, the Knicks are going to need more than 47 possessions before they can determine if this duo legitimately works. It’s a lineup combination that falls in line with what many believe, however: That Porzingis would be better at center.
There’s a human element that includes Porzingis needing to bulk up in order to consistently defend NBA centers, but from a pure basketball perspective, it makes sense.
Offensively, McDermott and Porzingis are both elite three-point shooters who are coming into their own from beyond the arc in 2017-18. That puts immeasurable pressure on the opposition by stretching both opposing big men out to the perimeter.
When the Knicks send Porzingis to the low block or McDermott to the baseline, they’re ideally complemented by an interior complement who can provide spacing.
Defensively, Porzingis and McDermott actually complement one another better than one might expect. While Porzingis is a feared shot-blocker, McDermott has impressed fans and coaches with his energy as a team defender.
They may not be the best rebounding duo in the NBA, but placing Porzingis at the 5 enables him to stay closer to the basket, and thus pull down more rebounds.
The lineup that’s proven most effective in this small sample size features Ntilikina and Lee in the backcourt, and Hardaway at small forward. They’ve only played 25 possessions with that five-man group, but it stands to reason that it could be an effective unit.
All five players are capable of shooting the three-ball, including a resurgent Ntilikina, and all five players are at least solid team defenders—if not better.
With Ntilikina hounding opponents in on-ball situations and Porzingis protecting the rim, the Knicks have two potentially elite defenders working in their elements. Lee and McDermott are committed team defenders, and Hardaway has improved his proficiency in multiple regards.
Having five shooters, multiple ball-handlers, two potentially elite defenders, and three committed team defenders on the court should work under most circumstances.
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So have the New York Knicks built their death lineup? Not quite—or at least not yet. What they have done, however, is found a way to play Kristaps Porzingis at center without sacrificing their offensive or defensive integrity.
This lineup could rise or crumble, but it’s time for the Knicks to explore the possibility of playing McDermott as a stretch 4.
*All statistics are courtesy of the brilliant Ben Falk and CleaningTheGlass.com.