New York Knicks: Tim Hardaway Jr. is exceeding expectations
New York Knicks shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr. was labeled as overpaid entering the 2017-18 NBA regular season. He’s already exceeding expectations.
With the New York Knicks set to play the Atlanta Hawks on Friday, Nov. 24, there’s no better time than now to evaluate the overachievement of a key contributor. All eyes have been on Kristaps Porzingis this season, but his No. 2 has been quietly exceeding expectations himself.
Despite getting off to one of the worst possible starts to a season, Tim Hardaway Jr. has rebounded to set the pace for a justification of his contract.
Hardaway was drafted by the Knicks at No. 24 overall in the 2013 NBA Draft. The former Michigan Wolverines star played two seasons in New York before he was ultimately traded to the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for Jerian Grant’s draft rights.
Hardaway was sent down to the D-League for a healthy stretch of the 2015-16 season, but bounced back with a career-year in 2016-17.
This past summer, the Knicks received mountains of criticism for handing Hardaway a four-year deal worth $70,950,000. New York was viewed as a franchise bidding against itself, and Hardaway was labeled as a severe overpay.
It’s still early, but Tim Hardaway Jr. is one-fifth of his way to justifying the first season of the contract the New York Knicks so confidently gave him.
Career-Best Production
When the New York Knicks signed Tim Hardaway Jr., the immediate response was that the four-year veteran needed to improve his production. He played well in 2016-17, but wasn’t quite as explosive as some believed his new contract requires him to be.
Since opening the season with a miserable four-game stretch, however, Hardaway has been producing the best statistics of his career.
Hardaway is currently averaging 18.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.5 three-point field goals made per game. Those numbers translate to marks of 19.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.6 three-point field goals made per 36 minutes.
On both a per game and per 36 basis, every single one of those numbers would be a new career-high for the scrutinized shooting guard.
Hardaway’s efficiency has been lower than desired, with a slash line of .423/.318/.810. Since the alluded to four-game stretch, however, he’s averaging 20.0 points per game on 44.8 percent shooting from the field.
Hardaway needs to become more consistent from beyond the arc, but he’s producing more than adequate statistics in 2017-18.
Improved Defensive Effort
When the New York Knicks signed Tim Hardaway Jr., president Steve Mills was clear and candid about what was required of the 25-year-old. Continued improvement on offense was included, but the primary focus was becoming a reliable defender.
It’s still early, but Hardaway has committed to the scheme and is looking the part of a solid team defender, which is far better than he was expected to be.
Hardaway isn’t yet a plus defender, but he’s made significant progress over the course of the past two seasons. Not only is he playing with more energy as an individual defender, but is contributing to the success of the scheme.
That’s reflected in the advanced metrics, as well as the film on which one can see Hardaway playing the passing lanes and contesting shots.
Hardaway currently has a Defensive Real Plus-Minus of -0.74—an improvement over his mark of -1.08 from 2016-17. He’s also averaging a career-high in steals per game and steals per 36 minutes, which displays an increase in effort and form.
Hardaway may not be a lockdown defender, but he’s making clear improvements—and he should only continue to improve from hereon out.
The Advanced Metrics
In the modern NBA, players aren’t appreciated unless they test well in the advanced metrics. A player’s value isn’t always accurately reflected by statistics, but they’ve become valuable tools in determining the quality of a player’s contributions.
In the case of Tim Hardaway Jr., the advanced metrics display that he’s become one of the better young perimeter players in the NBA.
Despite playing out of position, Hardaway currently rank No. 16 amongst small forwards in Real Plus-Minus. That includes a ranking of No. 8 in Offensive RPM, trailing just LeBron James, Robert Covington, Kevin Durant, Tobias Harris, Evan Fournier, Otto Porter Jr., and Paul George.
It’s also worth noting that the Knicks have offensive ratings of 107.2 with Hardaway on the floor and 102.2 when he isn’t—a stark difference of 5.0 points per 100 possessions.
Perhaps most importantly, New York is outscoring opponents by 1.8 points per 100 possessions when Hardaway is on the floor. When he isn’t, the 10-7 Knicks are are being outscored by 3.1 points per 100 possessions.
With no hyperbole whatsoever, Hardaway has often proved to be the difference between victory and defeat in 2017-18.
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The question is: Can New York Knicks shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr. maintain this strong pace to permanently silence his critics?