The NBA has voted to reform the draft lottery. How might the changes implemented in 2019 impact the future of the New York Knicks?
On September 28, the NBA Board of Governors decided to adjust the rules of the Draft Lottery. Since 1985, when the NBA season comes to a conclusion, the 14 teams that don’t make the playoffs are put into a lottery system.
The system is similar to the actual lottery, where teams are assigned a certain number of ping pong balls. The team with the worst record has the most ping pong balls, and thus, the highest odds of landing the No. 1 pick.
The old system was subject to scrutiny, as teams have been known to “tank,” or not put forth their best effort in games, in order to secure better odds.
In an official press release via NBA.com, it was announced that Draft Lottery reform has arrived.
"“NBA Draft Lottery reform is a meaningful step in our continuous effort to enhance the quality of our games,” said NBA President, League Operations Byron Spruell. “These changes were necessary to improve the competitive incentives for our teams.”"
In the current format, the team that finishes with the worst record in the league had a 25 percent chance of getting the first overall selection. The franchise with the second-worst record had a 19.9 percent chance at the first pick, and the team with the third-worst record had a 15.6 percent chance.
The new format, beginning with the 2019 NBA Draft, will even out the bottom three teams in the league. All three franchises will receive a 14 percent chance to get the top pick.
The rest of the picks are as follows:
Here is an ESPN graphic on how NBA Draft lottery odds change in 2019 pic.twitter.com/Jk8X7q0J3Z
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) September 28, 2017
On top of the lottery changes, the league implemented new policies that fight against teams resting players. Teams will be prohibited from resting healthy players on nationally televised games; the consequence will be a fine of $100,000 or more.
This rule will stop teams from throwing games, and evidently boost ratings.
How These Changes Affect The New York Knicks
The resting players rule isn’t going to be that big of a deal for the New York Knicks. Kristaps Porzingis and Frank Nkilitina will be expected to have a presence in the crowd during the nationally televised games, even if they aren’t playing.
This shouldn’t be a problem for two young players who wouldn’t rest unless they were injured.
The Knicks are projected to have the sixth-worst record in the league. In the current format, their chance of getting the top pick would be 6.3 percent. Not great odds.
With the reform in 2019, that number would up to 9.0—a monumental swing. With the right bounce from a ping pong ball, the Knicks would be able to solidify their future.
The 2018 draft class is going to be one of the best we’ve seen in quite some time. If you don’t believe me, go watch any of the following players mixtapes on YouTube:
- Marvin Bagley
- Michael Porter
- Luka Doncic
- Mohamed Bamba
- DeAndre Ayton
One glaring observation I was able to make from watching these incoming freshman: They all dominate basketball games. These five guys are future franchise cornerstones. Bagley, Ayton, and Porter all played with pros this past summer and looked good against the best of the best.
Doncic dominated the summer circuit in Europe. NBA general managers recently voted the Slovenian star as the best international player who’s not currently in the Association.
And finally, Bamba, has a 7’9″ wingspan, which would rank amongst the longest recorded measurements of any player in NBA history.
All of these players have a chance to be great. Landing one of them would help rebuild the Knicks franchise instantly. With lower odds for the 2018 draft, however, the Knicks may miss out on these players.
Hypothetically, let’s say the Knicks finish with the sixth-worst record in the league in 2019. When the draft lottery changes, the Knicks will be primed and ready to take advantage of a weak draft class.
Possibly landing Zion Williamson, who would be the perfect fit for the Knicks—a franchise without a young, athletic wing to build around. Just imagine seeing this in the Knicks programs for the foreseeable future.
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Zion Williamson Small Forward
Scouting Report
I may be getting ahead of myself, but if the New York Knicks are in for two more years of lottery-bound basketball, then the reform could help soften the blow.