When the Denver Nuggets host the New York Knicks tonight, 21-year-olds Kristaps Porzingis and Nikola Jokic will square off in a mouth-watering head-to-head between a new brand of super-skilled NBA big-man.
Last season, the New York Knicks’ Kristaps Porzingis and Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic finished second and third respectively in Rookie of the Year voting. These are two 21-year-olds positively dripping with talent.
Besides being must-see NBA League Pass TV, there’s a quietly bubbling history to the KP or Jokic debate.
What happens when the Unicorn meets the Joker tonight will be eagerly anticipated by the hardcore analytics community, for who, the jury is still out on which super-skilled 21-year-old is the better player.
As last year’s Rookie of the Year voting reflected, most around the NBA would give Porzingis the edge over Jokic. But, it’s closer than the average NBA fan probably realizes. Exposure probably accounts for some of this; there aren’t many NBA markets bigger than New York, nor much smaller than Denver.
The opportunity gap also feeds the narrative that Jokic is underrated. KP has averaged 28.4 and 34.5 minutes per game in his two NBA seasons, with a 22.9 percent usage rate or better in both campaigns.
Compare this to the Joker’s 21.7 and 23.7 minutes per game, as well as his 19.6 percent usage last season and a surprisingly low 18.7 percent this year so far.
Nuggets head coach Mike Malone has implemented a musical chairs rotation this season, and Jokic has been stuck in a traffic jam of good young players who need minutes to both develop their skills and maximize their trade value.
But Jokic is arguably the Nuggets’ best player and definitely their best prospect. He started their last game against the Portland Trail Blazers after coming off the bench in his previous 14 contests, and played well despite getting into foul trouble, with 13 points, five assists and four rebounds in 19 minutes.
Their styles of play also contribute to their reputations. Porzingis is highlight friendly. His monster blocks and ferocious tip dunks that look all the more unlikely given his matchstick frame, and all the more eye-catching given his comic book length, spread around the Twitterverse almost as quickly as the release of his silky smooth shooting stroke.
Jokic’s style, on the other hand, is rooted in the sublime subtleties of his all-around floor game. He hits cutters like a sniper, and lives up to his nickname with embarrassingly effective fakes and passing trickery. He has a touch of Boris Diaw’s instinctive vision to his game, of Marc Gasol’s quiet artistry.
It’s hard to capture this constant feel for the game in a 15 second highlight.
Last season, it was Jokic’s dominance in many advanced stats that was the foundation for his many plaudits. He was a real +/- (RPM) stud, ranking second in the league among power forwards at 6.03, compared to Porzingis’ 2.5.
This season, that RPM gap between the two players has closed significantly, with Jokic at 2.16, narrowly ahead of KP’s 1.95.
Over their short careers, the advanced stats generally fall in Jokic’s favor. Eleven of these twelve advanced metrics, to varying degrees, are in the Joker’s favor, per Basketball-Reference.com.
| Rk | Player | PER | TS% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | WS | WS/48 | OBPM | DBPM | BPM | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikola Jokic | 21.5 | .591 | 17.5 | 18.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 8.9 | .188 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 4.0 |
| 2 | Kristaps Porzingis | 18.1 | .531 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | .111 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.8 |
A contextual caveat to these seemingly dominant advanced numbers, however, is that Porzingis plays more minutes than Jokic. A larger portion of these minutes are against starters, meaning KP has played more minutes against a higher standard of opposition.
Whilst this doesn’t discount Jokic’s impressive advanced stats, it deflates the differential between his and KP’s slightly, and may account for his regression in RPM this season as opposed to last.
Porzingis’ growth this season has been so remarkable—he’s somehow become more efficient as he’s taken on more of an offensive load—that he’s currently a more valuable player than Jokic.
Whatever side of the polarizing Unicorn-Joker debate you’re on, however, both guys are unquestionably phenomenal talents and franchise cornerstones. Modern day NBA big man avatars straight out of the lab, who shoot, pass and protect the rim.
Tonight’s matchup doesn’t have the heavyweight gravitas that the Porzingis and Karl-Anthony Towns Bowl had earlier this season, but it will be no less enthralling to watch. For the spectacle’s sake, let’s hope Mike Malone gives Jokic—his best player—as many minutes as possible.
From the Knicks’ perspective, fans won’t mind too much if Jokic is limited to his season average of just under 24 minutes a contest.
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Either way, it will be a delicious matchup starring two of the NBA’s best young players. Get the popcorn ready!