Despite faring much better relative to last season, the New York Knicks’ starting lineup continues to struggle against certain teams—particularly defenses inclined to pack the paint. And while many want to see Mike Brown rip Josh Hart from the opening five, there’s another solution that may prove more diplomatic: adjusting the starters based on matchups.
To be fair, Brown has done a version of this midgame. Hart will be pulled in favor of Landry Shamet, or when he’s healthy, Deuce McBride.
Still, recent events beg the Knicks to be more proactive.
The Knicks’ starters are struggling against good teams
New York’s most-used starting five is a plus-4.7 points per 100 possessions. That is noticeably better than its plus-three mark from last year. But the results veer in the wrong direction when measuring the quality of opponents.
The Knicks are getting outscored by 8.5 points per 100 possessions with their starters on the floor against top-five teams, according to Pivot Fade. Expand the field to top-10 squads, and the lineup of Hart, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns is getting waxed by 12.5 points per 100 possessions.
Micro-context matters. A lot of other variables are at play when you zoom in on individual games. A common theme nevertheless emerges: The offense of this group is struggling more than the defense relative to its baseline.
Teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, et al. have found varying levels of success playing off Hart, and packing the paint. The Knicks have not always lost in these instances. They also haven’t found a sustainable fix that doesn’t involve switching up the personnel.
Using Hart as a screener provides some cover, but it has a huge trickle-down effect on the usages of Towns and Mitchell Robinson. Plus, even experimenting with that hasn’t always prevented the starters from digging into a hole. Most recently, the fivesome was a minus-10 in a win against the Spurs, and then also a minus-10 in the close-call loss to the Thunder.
Landry Shamet and Deuce McBride should be spot starters
Some will prefer to see Brown permanently move Hart to the bench. That shouldn’t be off the table, particularly given how well his minutes alongside Mitchell Robinson, without KAT, are going. (New York has outscored opponents by 44 points, with a 124.4 offensive rating, in 311 minutes of this look.)
Spot-starting Shamet or McBride (when he returns) would be less nuclear—-the middle ground. Hart doesn’t completely get written off as a starter, but he’ll be moved around to accommodate players who command more respect beyond the arc, and can operate with more on-ball speed in the half-court.
Proof of this concept isn’t yet available in ample supply. Extended absences from both Shamet and McBride have limited the number of reps they’ve received with the starters against top opponents.
At the same time, the Knicks’ two most recent run-ins with this problem, versus San Antonio and OKC, saw them generate more efficient offense and fare better overall by going away from the starting five. Inserting Shamet looms as the best solution in theory, since he delivers more size and rim pressure than McBride. But New York isn’t exactly limited here. It can go with McBride, Shamet, or even Jose Alvarado or, at this rate, Mohamed Diawara.
Like it or not, the Knicks once again have a starting-lineup problem. Unlike last year, though, they have more potential solutions. Brown has tapped into some of them. It’s just time for him to lean upon them sooner—to be proactive rather than reactive.