Guerschon Yabusele was crowned the steal of the offseason when he joined the New York Knicks. He’s not living up to that title. And if history is any indication, he probably never will.
This isn’t just about Yabusele’s sparse NBA track record, although that’s certainly part of the equation. He turned in a standout year with the Philadelphia 76ers last season, but it came after a half-decade away from the Association. Counting on him always carried degrees of risk, no matter how often people pointed to the improvements he made as a member of Real Madrid.
At that same time, this is mostly about keeping perspective. Yabusele was signed using (most) of the mini MLE. Historically speaking, while these additions are romanticized in the moment, they often devolve into a swing and a miss.
The recent track record for mini MLE signings isn’t great
The Denver Nuggets were the only team last season to use the mini MLE. They wound up with Dario Saric, who appeared in just 16 games for them, and wasn’t very good.
Rewind to the 2023-24 campaign, and the list of mini MLE signings is headlined by Reggie Jackson in Denver, as well as Kyle Lowry and Ricky Council IV with the Philadelphia 76ers. Of those players, only Jackson played a significant role, and he was so disappointing, the Nuggets needed multiple second-round picks to dump the final year of his contract the following summer.
Journey back to the 2022-23 season, and the mini-MLE success rate is better. The Nuggets bagged Bruce Brown Jr., and won a title. The Golden State Warriors capitalized on a terrible market for eventual Knick Donte DiVincenzo.
Still, that year also saw the Dallas Mavericks split the mini MLE between JaVale McGee and Jaden Hardy. Danilo Gallinari received it from the Boston Celtics. John Wall got it from the Los Angeles Clippers. The Milwaukee Bucks gave it to Joe Ingles. Those are more misses and non-factors than hits.
The Knicks should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst
Yabusele can and probably will play better for the Knicks. It’d be tough for him to be much worse. At minimum, he should have an easier time getting up and down the floor, and knock down more than 23.5 percent of threes.
Still, everyone needs to recalibrate this idea of a “steal.” Yabusele was available for (just) less than the mini MLE for a reason. These exceptions are almost exclusively given to wild cards, or proven veterans playing out their twilight.
Just consider who else received the mini MLE for this season: D’Angelo Russell in Dallas, and Al Horford with the Warriors. Both of them are off to less-than-spectacular starts as well.
There is a chance, then, that Yabusele’s arrival does little, if anything, for the Knicks. Depending on how many games Mitchell Robinson needs to miss, regular reliance on Yabusele has the chance to hurt New York.
This issue isn’t at DEFCON 1. Not yet. It may never be—and not because Yabusele will necessarily be better (though he might!), but because the Knicks will, like every other contender, eventually come to learn that you can’t always, if ever, count on mini-MLE signings to be big-time solutions.