Last season was unequivocally a success for the New York Knicks. They recovered from the rise-fall two-step that commonly comes with a Tom Thibodeau team, signing Jalen Brunson in free agency and finishing with the fifth-best record in the Eastern Conference and knocking out the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round before losing to the Miami Heat in the second round.
While the Knicks are certainly keeping their ears open for any potential trades for a star, right now they are heading into the season with a roster largely similar to last season after a low-activity offseason. Does that mean they should keep everything the same?
The New York Knicks are building a new rotation
The NBA is always changing and always improving, and the Knicks can’t afford to get too comfortable. They did that two years ago and fell back to earth as the rest of the East got better around them. They may have made just one impact signing this summer, adding Donte DiVincenzo, but they can look at new and better ways to shape the rotation next season.
That means some players need to see their minutes reduced, and others need to be given more of an opportunity to spread their wings. Let’s look at five players on the roster returning from last season; who needs to play more, and who needs to play less?
No. 1: Miles McBride should play more
Right off the bat, we’re going to see the difficulty with this exercise. The Knicks are loaded with talented backcourt players, and they are comparatively thin in the frontcourt. We’ll get more into that as we go. For now, though, despite the logjam at guard, the Knicks need to find a way to get Miles McBride minutes.
The Knicks took McBride with the 36th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft; the former West Virginia point guard was seen as a first-round pick by many draft analysts, and they have been proven right by McBride’s play in limited minutes thus far in his career.
McBride has a solid handle, quick hands and a dogged defensive presence. The swing skill for McBride was his shooting, but while he hit under 30 percent from deep in the NBA last year he has hit well over 40 percent of his 3-pointers in limited minutes in the G League. When he has played with the Westchester Knicks he has been “too good” for the G League, averaging over 26 points per game in 13 appearances over the last two years.
He played consistently but sparingly for the New York Knicks last year, appearing in 64 games but averaging just 11.9 minutes per game. He averaged 1.8 steals per 36 minutes as a ball hawk and his defensive impact was felt even if his offensive game is still coming along.
If the Knicks end up trading Immanuel Quickley for any reason, McBride looks capable of stepping into a larger role. His defensive chops give him a situational path to minutes in certain situations, but the Knicks should think through ways to get him on the floor.
No. 2: Julius Randle should play less
It continues to be surprising, but Julius Randle has been really good for the New York Knicks over the past few seasons. He continues to lack a skillset to elevate in the playoffs, but he has drastically improved as a shooter and plays harder on defense for Tom Thibodeau than at any previous stop in his career.
With that being said, 35.5 minutes per game is likely too many for anyone in the modern NBA, given the strain it places on players having to cover the court at high speeds defensively. It’s a credit to Thibodeau that he didn’t play Randle more than that (Randle led the league in minutes per game in 2020-21) but with Obi Toppin now gone there could be a temptation to bump his minutes back up.
Randle will likely need to play more minutes in the playoffs, so conserving his body for the regular season makes the most sense. Randle’s defense is also the first thing to go when he is fatigued, and next is his shot selection; as with most players, when he gets tired he turns into a jumpshooter. Randle is at his best with full optionality, the threat of a shot balanced with the threat of a bowling-ball drive into the paint.
Randle at 33 minutes per game is probably at his best on both ends of the court, and helps the odds of a healthy Randle reaching the playoffs.
No. 3: Quentin Grimes should play more
This is the easiest call on the board: Quentin Grimes should play more, potentially as much as anyone else on the roster. He is a rising star in the NBA and the Knicks should take advantage and deploy him to the full extent of his powers.
That isn’t to say that Grimes is the best player on the Knicks, but his skillset fits perfectly in any lineup. He is a high-end wing defender, a knockdown shooter and has a growing repertoire of scoring ability, and given their roster construction the Knicks are going to need him to play a lot this season.
Last year, Basketball Reference estimates that Grimes played 65 percent of his minutes at shooting guard and 35 percent at small forward; those numbers may flip this year, as the middle of the roster shifts down to cover the loss of Obi Toppin and absorb the addition of Donte DiVincenzo. It also frees up minutes for the Knicks’ young guards to play more.
Grimes is now 23 years old and played 29.9 minutes per game last year; that number should creep well above 30, with Grimes likely starting at the 2 and playing minutes at the 3 with either Josh Hart or RJ Barrett at power forward.
No. 4: RJ Barrett should play less
At some point, math will prevent these recommendations from happening. The Knicks have to replace Obi Toppin’s minutes, and they haven’t signed any forward to the roster to do so. At the same time, they should probably reduce Julius Randle’s minutes….and RJ Barrett should play less?
This recommendation is based not in load management and fatigue, but simply on the reality that Barrett was a relatively poor rotation player for the Knicks last season. He played 2,475 minutes last season, second-most on the team behind Randle, and was a negative on both the offense and defense. His Box Plus-Minus was -3.1, worst on the team among all rotation players, and despite his heavy minute total, he lost the Knicks nearly a win over a replacement player.
Cleaning the Glass goes into more detail. When Barrett was on the court, the Knicks were 4.9 points per 100 possessions worse on offense than when he sat; on defense, they were a staggering 7.4 points per 100 worse, one of the worst differentials in the league! Simply put, if Barrett was on the court the Knicks were a disaster; when he sat, they were among the league’s best. His -12.3 differential placed him in the bottom 10 percent of all players.
That wasn’t a one-year development, either, as he was a major negative a season ago too, and as a rookie; only in his second year did he essentially break even. If the Knicks want to keep up in a competitive Eastern Conference and secure a top seed, they need to find a way to lessen Barrett’s minutes; or, better yet, use him as the centerpiece of a deal to bring back a star.
No. 5: Immanuel Quickley should play more
If you’re sensing a trend, it’s that the Knicks have way too many talented guards and not enough reliable frontcourt players; in that sense, signing Donte DiVincenzo instead of a forward in free agency could lead to rotation issues. Even so, the Knicks need to make sure they carve out a solid role for Immanuel Quickley this season.
We just discussed the impact that Barrett had on the Knicks, hurting them on both offense and defense. Quickley has a very different impact, improving the Knicks by 8.5 points per 100 possessions when he takes the court, in the 91st percentile league-wide last season. That’s not a unique feat, either, as he has been +8 or better in each of his three seasons.
Quickley is long, athletic and savvy on defense, providing the Knicks with a solid point-of-attack option or even a long-limbed wing they can move onto wings. He’s not elite on offense but he is certainly solid, excelling in an off-ball role when Brunson and Randle were healthy and transitioning into an on-ball dynamo when they missed time. He is an excellent shooter and can fit into nearly any backcourt construction.
Whether they work out a contract extension to make Quickley their long-term third guard or, perhaps more likely, use him to trade for a star at another position, he needs to play more this season. His 28.9 minutes per game is inflated by the games he played without Brunson (who missed 14 games last season); he’s playing low-20s when Brunson suits up. That number needs to be higher, although with Brunson, DiVincenzo and Quentin Grimes to fit in, things certainly get crowded….err, quickly.
The Knicks probably need a trade to help alleviate their roster imbalance, but for now, their best players are crowded into the backcourt and they need to find a way to play them, despite the size disadvantage. Quickley leads the way for players who need to have a larger role next season.