Knicks vs. Heat prediction and odds for Wednesday, March 22 (Trends say to trust Knicks)

New York Knicks forward Julius Randle. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
New York Knicks forward Julius Randle. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports /

The New York Knicks are on the road on Wednesday night to take on the Miami Heat in what is a crucial matchup for New York’s playoff standing this season.

The Knicks have already beaten Miami twice, but with two more games against them to close out the season, New York would love to split to keep the gap between the two teams in the East. Entering this game, the Knicks have a three-game lead on Miami, who is seventh in the conference.

The last time these teams played, Julius Randle drilled a game-winning 3-pointer for the Knicks after the team blew a double-digit lead.

The Heat have listed Kyle Lowry and Caleb Martin as questionable for this game.

New York is coming off a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, but can it bounce back in this game?

Knicks vs. Heat odds, spread and total

Knicks vs. Heat prediction and pick

There are a couple of trends that favor the Knicks in this game, starting with Miami’s record against the spread as a home favorite this season.

The Heat are just 9-22-2 against the spread in those games, the worst mark in the NBA. That could be an issue against a New York team that thrives on the road, going a league best 24-12 ATS away from Madison Square Garden.

Both times these teams have played the game has been close, so getting any points on the Knicks feels like a spot to take advantage.

New York is 16-10 ATS as a road underdog, and the Knicks have a huge offensive advantage against the Heat (fifth in offensive rating compared to Miami at No. 25).

Both of these teams are in the bottom four in the NBA in pace, so a slowed down game is going to call for the teams to make the most of their possessions. I think the Knicks have the edge there, so I’ll trust them to at least cover on Wednesday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.