The New York Knicks are probably going to make the playoffs. As in, almost-certainly-in-really-good-shape to make the playoffs. They are 33-27 and in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, with strong underlying metrics and a great 1-2 punch with Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives New York a 98.1 percent chance to finish in the top 8.
The risky part of finishing in just the top 8, however, is that you might not be perfectly safe. If the Knicks slip down to seventh or eighth they will still need to win their way out of the Play-In Tournament. Lose twice, and they’ll be watching the playoffs from home. They should be one of the East’s better teams down the stretch, but a bad injury or a few poor shooting nights could slip them down just enough.
The Knicks sent a lottery-protected first-round pick to the Portland Trail Blazers in the Josh Hart deal, and if they make the playoffs they will send that pick along. If they miss, however, they retain this year’s pick (which would therefore be a lottery pick) and send four second-round picks instead.
If that unlikely, but still possible outcome occurs (just ask last year’s Cleveland Cavaliers how unlikely it is, or the Golden State Warriors two seasons ago) who are some players the Knicks could draft at the end of the lottery?
Knicks Lottery prospect No. 1: Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
One of the breakout stars of this year’s freshman class, Brice Sensabaugh is having a great offensive season for the Ohio State Buckeyes. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic said recently (subscription required) that he has a case as the best shooter in the class, which is saying something given some of the elite shooters also in this class (you’ll see two of them below).
Sensabaugh is 6’6″ with a butter-smooth jumper, one he can get into off the catch or off the dribble. He’s a mess defensively, but the Knicks might have the pieces to insulate and correct that, while they could truly benefit from his shooting. If his passing and separation continue to develop, he could be much more than just a shooter at the next level; at the least, however, a bench gunner with size is his floor.
Knicks Lottery prospect No. 2: Jett Howard, Michigan
The son of former All-Star big Juwan Howard, Jett is playing his freshman season for his father at Michigan. The 6’8″ forward absolutely gets the game of basketball, with excellent instincts and hundreds of hours of muscle memory already built up. He has been playing in NBA-style offenses for years and should be ready to step in immediately and fit in.
He has a lethal three-point shot, but has great touch from midrange, on his floater, and at the rim. He’s also a dogged defender with great size, although he needs to polish his positioning inside of a good team concept; playing for Tom Thibodeau would be perfect for that.
While Howard can create his own shot, he is truly elite as a movement shooter already. He could step in from day one and start sprinting off of screens while Julius Randle handles at the elbow or Jalen Brunson runs an action on the opposite side, catching and firing like a 10-year pro.
Howard probably won’t be a star in the NBA, but there is a perfect role waiting for him: a movement shooter with great size and the ability to attack closeouts, with defensive upside and just enough passing ability to hope to grow even more.
Knicks Lottery prospect No. 3: Gradey Dick, Kansas
We’re playing something of a stepping-stone game here with the three lottery prospects we have highlighted. Brice Sensabaugh is an elite shooter and a porous defender. Jett Howard is a great shooter and a willing, if flawed, defender. In Gradey Dick, the Knicks could get even more of a complete package with shooting as the main event.
First, the shot: Dick is shooting 45.3 percent from long-range on six attempts per game, the exact combination of efficiency and volume you want from a future gunner. His shooting stroke is “flawless” according to Kevin O’Connor at The Ringer. He already knows how to run without the ball and finds openings in the defense to catch and fire.
He brings a lot more to the table, too. He leverages his shooting gravity to cut into the paint, with the strength to finish inside with a variety of moves. He isn’t going to dust someone in the triple threat but give him any advantage of momentum and he can absolutely get up for a dunk or floater, or hit an open teammate as the defense rotates.
Dick is not a great defender, but he plays hard and has great length. He also has rebounded well despite playing alongside two other bigs, pulling in 5.3 rebounds per game and fighting for boards among bigger, heftier players.
Any of these three players would instantly give the Knicks weaponized shooting, something their rotation could absolutely use. This team hopes not to have a first-round pick this year, but if they do, these three wings are great options to boost their offense.
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