Knicks vs. Mavericks best bet: Take under between slow-paced offenses

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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The New York Knicks are looking to snap their three-game losing streak on Tuesday against the Dallas Mavericks, a team that has already beaten them this season.

Dallas took an early December matchup between these two teams at Madison Square Garden, riding a monster third quarter for the win.

The loss changed something for New York, as the team rattled off eight straight wins following the game, featuring a defensive-focused attack.

However, that has slipped away a bit in the Knicks’ losses to the Philadelphia 76ers and Chicago Bulls, especially late in the game. New York was dominated by Philly in the fourth quarter on Christmas Day after spending most of the game in the lead.

Obi Toppin remains out of the lineup for the Knicks, and point guard Jalen Brunson is listed as questionable for this game. It would be a shame if Brunson missed his return to Dallas, but he has suited up at other points this season despite a questionable tag.

I have a best bet for this matchup below, but first let’s check out the latest odds:

Knicks vs. Mavericks odds, spread and total

Knicks vs. Mavericks prediction and pick

The first game between these two teams wasn’t close in the second half, but the Knicks have looked like a much different team since.

The team now ranks ninth in the NBA in defensive rating, and has been one of the best teams in the league in terms of net rating over its last 10 matchups.

Dallas is coming off a hot shooting game against the Los Angeles Lakers on Christmas Day, but I think there is some offensive regression coming for both sides in this game.

Both of these teams slow the game down, with Dallas ranking 29th in the NBA in pace and the Knicks slotting in at 20th.

When you look at the last 10 games for these teams, they rank 28th (New York) and 29th in pace, showing just how much the Knicks have slowed down their offense since the start of the season.

It’s helped the team tremendously on the defensive end, as the Knicks are really making opponents grind out games. With Dallas potentially down key role players like Josh Green and Dorian Finney-Smith, I think there is value in taking the UNDER here.

The last game between these two teams landed exactly on 221 points, and that was with the Knicks allowing an albatross of 41 points in the third quarter.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.