Among the endless chatter of New York Knicks players and topics, there are few more smile-inducing than that of RJ Barrett.
The 6’6” small-forward is going into his fourth year and has improved his scoring output in every season, going from 14 a game, to 17.6 points, to 20 points last season. Despite the increases and the amount of blame Julius Randle justifiably shouldered for the Knicks’ struggles last season, Barrett did see significant drop-offs in efficiency compared to his second year.
He is now entering a hugely important year for his career, the final year of his rookie deal, and the season in which he can prove that he’s ready to take that next step into All-Star territory.
The strengths and weaknesses of Knicks’ RJ Barrett
Let’s start with the positives. There’s a reason people get so excited about Barrett and the numbers back up the Duke product’s talents.
On a surface-level look, he averaged 20 points, 5.8 boards, and 3 assists on 40.8% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from long range.
Splitting the season into two, the numbers also show that Barrett balled out in the second half of the season. It is a big part of what left fans feeling so excited about him at the end of the year.
Pre All-Star numbers per game
- 18 points
- 5.7 rebounds
- 2.6 assists
Post All-Star numbers per game
- 24.5 points
- 6.2 rebounds
- 3.8 assists
RJ BARRETT PULLED OUT THE WINDMILL 😳 pic.twitter.com/c4BwTcw8bl
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) January 11, 2022
The elevated output corresponds with a conscious choice by the Knicks coaching staff to run more of the offense through Barrett in the second half of the season, as opposed to always going to Randle. That was a choice that was relatively forced upon them given Randle’s continued struggles last year.
Somewhat surprisingly, Barrett’s rebounds and assists numbers remained exactly the same over the past two seasons — 5.8 rebounds and 3 assists in both years.
Only Tyler Herro, Darius Garland, and Ja Morant averaged more points than Barrett last year out of the players from the 2019 NBA Draft.
RJ Barrett’s greatest strength is getting downhill
Barrett gets to the rim, and he’s already one of the best in the league at drawing contact when he gets there.
Barrett ranks in the 83rd percentile in the percentage of his shots that come from within four feet of the rim, according to CleaningTheGlass. Specifically, he takes 41% of his attempts from within the range.
The number has actually gone down slightly for Barrett since his rookie year as he’s expanded his three-point shooting, but it is a metric that leads into what he currently does better than anything else when compared to the rest of the league.
Getting fouled.
Barrett is in the NBA’s 94th percentile of getting fouled on shot attempts.
The list of guards that play legitimate minutes that rank above him in the category is made up of just seven players: Spencer Dinwiddie, James Harden, Norman Powell, Jimmy Butler, Harrison Barnes, Josh Hart, and DeMar DeRozan.
Barrett’s season-high was against the Miami Heat on Feb. 25, and take a look at how many elite finishes he had.
Barrett uses his height, 215-pound frame, and expanding crossover package to get downhill and attack with his left hand at a high level.
In terms of conversion after getting fouled, Barrett makes the shot after getting hit for the and-1 20% of the time, according to CleaningTheGlass.
RJ Barrett’s greatest weakness right now is his efficiency
This is all understandably a bit critical of a player going into his fourth season who just averaged 20 points for a disappointing team, but it’s the type of critique that comes along with the star status that Barrett is hopefully destined for.
Barrett’s efficiency numbers are bad.
Again, starting with the surface level, Barrett’s numbers dropped across the board when comparing his third season to his second.
2020-21 numbers
- Field Goal Percentage: 44.1 percent
- 3-Point Percentage: 40.1 percent
- Free Throw Percentage: 74.6 percent
- Total Shot Attempts Per Game: 14.7
2021-22 Numbers
- Field Goal Percentage: 40.8 percent
- 3-Point Percentage: 34.2 percent
- Free Throw Percentage: 71.4 percent
- Total Shot Attempts Per Game: 17
Barrett’s field goal and free throw percentage both dropped three percent, and his three-point percentage saw a six percent fall.
While Barrett did take more shots last year, you don’t like to see a player’s percentages decrease on the front side of their career.
As we see above, Barrett is great at getting to the rim and getting fouled, but only shooting 70% from the line is leaving free points on the table. Free throw shooting is the first area where Barrett can improve this year to take better advantage of his player profile.
Secondly, what happened with the three-point shooting?
Barrett went from ranking in the very-respectable 78th percentile in three-point shooting in 2020-21 to the 34th percentile in 2021-22.
Surprisingly, his percentage on non-corner threes was almost identical during the two seasons, but his three-point shooting from the corners fell off a cliff last year.
Barrett lost 13 percentage points from the spot on the court, going from 44% on corner threes in 2020-21 to 31% in 2021-22, according to CleaningTheGlass.
Barrett took more corner threes two years ago compared to last year, making the reasoning for his drop-off difficult to pinpoint.
Again, though, it is Barrett leaving points on the table from a spot on the court considered to be one of the easiest to score from.
Here’s a game near the end of last season that shows almost a perfect Barrett game, as he scored 27 points while doing almost all of his work in the paint while mixing in three corner threes.
RJ Barrett’s finishing ability at the rim
While Barrett is great at getting to the rim, he’s not great at finishing once he gets there.
He scored on just 55% of his shots from within four feet last season, which was good for the 15th percentile in the league.
Barrett uses his athleticism and left hand to get to the rim with ease, but only scores on about half of the shots he takes when he gets there.
Another point of emphasis this year for Barrett has to be his floater game and layup package, which will allow for him to make more of these close-in shots.
The fact that Barrett was able to average 20 points a game during his third season in the NBA while only shooting 70% from the free throw line with a below-average conversion rate at the rim should scare the rest of the NBA.
Barrett has the tool kit to get to the spots on the floor where stars are made, now he just has to raise his efficiency points by half a dozen or so from those positions to take that next step into certified All-Star territory.
In his fourth year, Barrett will also have Jalen Brunson next to him for the first time. With the addition of someone of Brunson’s talent and another overall successful year in the rearview window — Knicks fans have every right to be excited about what Barrett will do this year.
Knicks’ RJ Barrett will take next step with or without Donovan Mitchell next season
New York Knicks star RJ Barrett will look to make great leaps next season, regardless of whether or not the team trades for Donovan Mitchell.