I can only imagine the thoughts running through your head as you read the Russell Westbrook for Julius Randle trade headline. Some New York Knicks fans have undoubtedly bypassed the article and gone directly to the comment section to fire off their frustration. And I get it.
However, if you’ll take a moment to hear me out, I think I can convince you that one very specific hypothetical Westbrook to the Knicks trade could be quite wise by New York. Here are four components of the trade, as well as a look at why each team might consider this radical proposal.
#1: Russell Westbrook is bought out before ever playing for the Knicks
This is the most critical step in understanding this trade. I am not, in any way, suggesting that Westbrook serve as any sort of on-court savior for the Knicks.
I’ve seen the footage of him in Los Angeles. I’ve seen one of the most athletic players in history age poorly as his chief skill has begun to erode. I’m not interested in seeing the former MVP play a single second in a New York jersey. And in this scenario, he wouldn’t have to.
This trade is a glorified salary dump on the Knicks. And it could pay major dividends if a club were to press for a premium return.
Do you need an example of what we’re discussing? Check out this ESPN segment in which NBA analyst Zach Lowe breaks down similar trade possibilities involving the Pacers and Hornets.
We’ll get more into the specifics of this buyout later, including specifics on how it would affect New York’s salary cap. But for now, please understand that Westbrook would not be playing in MSG.
#2: The Knicks send Julius Randle and other bad contracts to the Lakers
So what would this trade look like? It’s difficult to find a trade in which any team can match salaries for a ballooned contract like Westbrook’s. However, New York would be able to make such a move. Here’s my suggestion, without any draft capital changing hands (more on that critical component later).
There is another scenario in which Alec Burks is swapped out for Kemba Walker. But I may prefer Walker as a separate trade asset for the Knicks.
#3: How would a Russell Westbrook buyout affect the Knicks’ salary cap?
This is the key question. And it carries the biggest risk for the Knicks. The former league MVP is owed a massive $47,063,478 during the 2022-2023 NBA season before becoming an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year.
As the Lakers know well, this is a potentially crushing burden. So how would this affect the Knicks’ roster?
New York would be forced to consider the waive-and-stretch provision that would allow the club to buy out Westbrook’s contract by dividing the large lump sum into smaller annual increments.
The NBA’s rules on contract restructuring are complicated and nuanced, however, according to my research, such a move would cost the Knicks something in the market of $15 million against the cap in each of the next three seasons.
For context, a few recognizable players set to make somewhere close to $15 million next season include Duncan Robinson (MIA), Marcus Smart (BOS), Patrick Beverly (MIN), Derrick Rose (NYK), Kyle Kuzma (WAS), and Marcus Morris (LAC).
In essence, this move would cost New York the ability to add one veteran in this general tier for the next three years.
#4: What draft capital would change hands?
From a Knicks perspective, the salary implications are difficult to swallow. Why would Leon Rose and company consider taking on Westbrook’s albatross contract? They simply should not unless sufficient draft capital is being sent back to New York in return.
What would it take to make this move worth the Knicks’ trouble? I’ll suggest the following pick swap in addition to the aforementioned players:
To recap, this potential deal would net New York a valuable young asset in Horton-Tucker and two future first-round picks. Does this deal make sense for the Knicks? What about the Lakers? Let’s discuss!
Why would the Knicks consider this trade?
The big question on the table is: Why would the Knicks entertain this proposal? Few teams in the league would even consider touching Westbrook’s contract.
If the Lakers would bite, I would argue that this type of trade could be a steal for New York. The current incarnation of the roster clearly is not working. The 2021-2022 season has confirmed that the postseason berth in 2020-2021 was more outlier than sustainable.
Coach Tom Thibodeau’s time in New York is rumored to be on thin ice, while former star Randle seems to be growing increasingly frustrated in NYC.
To further complicate matters, the Knicks are stuck with several bad contracts. Randle is due between $21 and $32 million in each of the next five seasons. Fournier is due $17 million per year over the next three. And Burks, Walker, and Rose are all due between $8-$10 million over the next two-three seasons.
However, this proposed trade would allow the Knicks to wipe the slate clean. While Westbrook’s deal is ridiculous, the buyout option makes sense considering how many other contracts New York would be freed from.
And perhaps even more importantly, the Knicks could capitalize on the Lakers’ inspiration to win in LeBron James’ final seasons, and they could add valuable assets in the process.
The two first-round picks would be a nice boost to the New York mini-rebuild, while THT would give them another young player or trade chip. I would take this haul for a Westbrook buyout.
Why would the Lakers consider this trade?
There is only one real answer to this question. Ironically, it is the same answer that allegedly caused LA to add Westbrook in the first place: LeBron James.
Despite 18 years in the NBA, 37-year-old James was still a force on the court this past year. Had he not been nagged by minor injuries, King James could have easily won a scoring title this season.
However, despite an unprecedented level of play from James, the Lakers were one of the biggest disappointments of the season, failing to make the play-in tournament. While James and Anthony Davis remain in place, Westbrook’s contract prevents any real rebuild as the franchise attempts to run things back in 2023.
The above trade proposal is a steep price for the Lakers. But the ask of THT and two first-round picks that won’t be used until the absolute twilight of James’ career isn’t unreasonable.
The aforementioned mock trades proposed by Zach Lowe each had multiple first-round picks going from the Lakers to the team that takes on Westbrook’s contract. And no other option put Los Angeles in a position to add a recent All-Star and shooting talent to the roster.
Adding a legitimate (though sub-All-Star) talent in Randle, and shooters in Fournier and Burks would create spacing and depth that would be impossible with Westbrook on the roster. It would also free up LA to make other small moves to build around their star duo.
LeBron-led teams have a reputation for parting with draft capital and young assets to create a win-now depth chart. If James will have any possibility of competing for a championship in Los Angeles again, the franchise must consider parting with what little future capital they have left.
If the Knicks played their cards right, they might just be able to capitalize on the Lakers’ desperation as they seek to reboot their own roster.
Don’t let the bad mock trades sending Westbrook to the Knicks as an on-court savior frustrate you into ignoring the potential here. There is a hypothetical Westbrook for Randle trade that makes fair sense for the Knicks.
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