The NY Knicks and Mitchell Robinson appear to be in open talks about a possible contract extension.
According to Marc Berman of the New York Post, The Knicks have been impressed with Robinson’s offseason workouts and added strength, and general manager Leon Rose is open to signing the young big-man to an extension.
NY Knicks: Mitchell Robinson is on the right career trajectory
With all of the Knicks’ success last season, Mitchell Robinson’s individual success went unnoticed because, well, he wasn’t a part of the team in the 2nd half of the year. Robinson played in just 31 of the team’s 72 games last season and it led to a lot of his progress being overlooked.
Robinson was having an impressive year. With newfound strength and coaching from Tom Thibodeau and Kenny Payne, he became a draining force in the paint, leading the league in box-outs per game as well as 5th in the league in offensive rebounds per game.
The 7 footer was able to be a disruptive force for opposing big men and really took some tremendous strides in his overall defensive awareness.
Unfortunately, his injury has been used as ammunition against him. Robinson, for some reason, has still carried a label of “not being able to stay on the court” from his rookie season, despite last year being 54th in the NBA in fouls per 36 minutes among frontcourt players. To get that stat, I even filtered the players to have played at least averaged 20 minutes per game and have played in at least 20 minutes per game last season, so Mitch actually stacked up as one of the best centers in the NBA in avoiding foul trouble last season.
Last season was by far Mitchell Robinson’s worst in terms of injury. Robinson has now played in:
- 80.5% of games in 2018-19
- 92.4% of games in 2019-20
- 44.1% of games in 2020-21
On top of the missing-games narrative is the idea that he’s too… aloof? Is that the right word? He’s too aloof to invest in?
Is it because of his Tik Tok dances? Posting NBA Youngboy lyrics on social media?
Haven’t we seen enough off-court drama with the Knicks over the last 20 years to recognize when someone’s personality is actually a problem?
The NY Knicks have a very clear budding star center in Mitchell Robinson. A once, raw project player who has done nothing but develop his understanding of the game and improve his physical frame since coming into the league — Mitchell Robinson’s career trajectory to this point is strikingly similar to some of the game’s best centers.
His defensive efficiency, rebounding prowess, power as a rim-runner, and of course, ridiculous size and athleticism are all strong indicators of an even brighter future on the horizon. It might be wise for the NY Knicks to get this extension done now.
Let’s take a look at 3 high-level centers whose careers look similar to Mitchell Robinson’s thus far in his NBA journey.
NY Knicks: Mitchell Robinson Comparisons — Clint Capela
Clint Capela should be a familiar face for Knicks fans after their playoff series with the Atlanta Hawks.
After leading the league in rebounds per game this past season, Capela averaged 10 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks in the series against the Knicks and finished as a +59 in the 5 games.
A polarizing force in the middle, New York had no answer for Capela’s athleticism and strength in the paint. He’s of the exact mold and type of player that Mitchell Robinson is becoming.
It took a few years for Capela to get to the level he’s at today. Now look, Capela may not be a “superstar player” but that doesn’t mean he isn’t one of the best centers in the game.
He’s currently on a 5-year, 90 million contract deal. Do you think the Hawks are saying “aw jeez I’m upset we’re paying Clinta Capela 18 mil per year”? He’s had a great impact on their team.
Capela was selected 25th overall in 2014 and a lot of scouting reports had similar things to say. Here’s one from NBA Draftnet:
"“What really separates him is his explosiveness around the rim … He isn’t scared of contact and can really finish above the rim with one of two hands … He also can really run the floor on finding easy layups and dunks in transition … Capela is still a very raw talent with a lot of upside, but has also developed solid instinct, particularly on the defensive end…The biggest knock on Capela is his lack of basketball IQ … He frequently appears lost and often wants to make plays without understanding what is going on around him … He also should be an absolute monster due to his physical attributes but can lack aggressiveness on both ends of the court.”"
Sounds a lot like Mitchell Robinson coming into the league, doesn’t it?
Capela’s 3rd year in the league is when he made his first jump — As a member of the run-and-gun Houston Rockets (Who had the 3rd highest pace and 2nd highest points per game in the NBA) he averaged 12.6 points and 8.1 rebounds per game.
This past season, Mitchell Robinson (also his 3rd year) averaged 8.3 points and 8.1 blocks on the 4th slowest team and the team last in the league in points per game.
In his 4th year in the league, playing alongside both James Harden and Chris Paul, Capela took another step forward into becoming a powerful, rim-running, starting NBA center. He averaged 13.9 points and 10.8 rebounds in 27.5 minutes per game.
Those could be some attainable numbers for Robinson with his added playmakers Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier in the fold this season.
Capela may have started with a very different style of team with the Mike D’Antoni Houston Rockets, but the similarities in their career trajectories are striking. To their size, impact, and overall stats, Robinson has it in him to be a Clint Capela-level player this upcoming season.
NY Knicks: Mitchell Robinson Comparisons — DeAndre Jordan
Brooklyn Nets superstar DeAndre Jordan.
Alright, Jordan may be past his prime now, but once upon a time he was one of the most athletic and physically imposing centers in the NBA. We’re talking about a former All-Star with an All-NBA first-team selection and two All-NBA 3rd team selections.
Another mammoth athlete with springy legs, Jordan was a part of the old “lob-city” Los Angeles Clippers in the early 2010s.
Jordan, like Mitchell Robinson, was a 2nd round draft pick. Coming into the league, he was another clunky, athletic big man who was a ways away from understanding the nuances of being a productive center in the NBA.
Jordan’s scouting report on NBA Draftnet said:
"“Exciting bigman with a lot of promise At 7-feet, his rare athleticism and explosive leaping ability gives him a tremendous amount of potential Hes got a huge frame and can add a lot of weight and become a dominant interior force on both ends of the floor His combination of size, length, and explosiveness makes him a quality shot blocker now who can develop into a dominant one with added coaching and discipline… Needs to develop his body, strengthening his arms and upper body and toning his legs … Despite being a bigtime athlete, hes still extremely raw fundamentally Right now his offensive game is limited to mostly dunks and follow up shots around the basket Still needs to add a lot to his game, so its unlikely hell be ready to contribute much after just one season at Texas A&M Lacks range. He has decent touch, but lacks any real post moves or great offensive understanding A year in college will definitely help him to pick up better foot work and post moves…”"
Jordan showed a lot of the good and the bad from his draft profile in his first two seasons in the league. It wasn’t until his 3rd year in the league that he eclipsed 20 minutes per game.
Chris Paul arrived in Los Angeles for Jordan’s 4th year, and Jordan began to prove himself as a key player and secondary player for the Lob City Clippers.
Prior to the season starting, Jordan the Clippers matched a 3-year, 43 million offer sheet to keep the still developing Jordan around. He was in a similar spot in his career to Mitchell Robinson now.
Even with Chris Paul’s arrival in year 4, it wasn’t until year 6 that Jordan started to play heavy minutes and start putting up the 13-15 stat lines that became regular season averages in the prime of his career.
Jordan had the physical gifts and basketball instincts, he just needed to be developed. He became one of the league’s best “defensive anchors”. Mitchell Robinson certainly looks as though he’s developed some DeAndre Jordan level strength and size this offseason and he could start having a similar impact soon.
NY Knicks: Mitchell Robinson Comparisons — Rudy Gobert
A 3-time Defensive Player of The Year? That might be a little too much expectation to put on Mitchell Robinson, but Rudy Gobert didn’t become Rudy Gobert overnight.
Once upon a time, Gobert was a tall, lanky kid from France who was taken at the end of the first round of the NBA draft. He may not have had the same leaping ability as Mitchell Robinson, but Gobert did share some of the same extremely potent, yet raw basketball traits.
What was being said about Gobert before he was drafted 27th overall in 2013?
"“Gobert has an amazing (7-foot-9) wingspan combined with a skinny but athletic frame … Coordination and ability to run the floor are above average for a big man … His agility and reflexes make him a solid athlete, even by NBA standards… His wingspan allows his team to put defensive pressure on opponents …Rim protector. His length disrupts passing lanes and he makes the basket difficult to reach for opposing guard’s penetrations … He has good timing for blocks, thanks to his agility and coordination… He needs to bulk up his upper body, in order to be able to withstand the extra physicality at the NBA level… He’s able to take post position effectively but he still lacks a safe and reliable go to post move … He’s a reliable rebounder but with his physical tools he could be even better … He has a mild demeanor, sometimes he appears to play with a reduced gear, lacking much competitive fire … At times, his lack of a great feel for the game becomes apparent as he fails to recognize plays before they develop or doesn’t finish off plays with enough aggression …"
Hmm… “fails to recognize plays”, “Needs to bulk up upper body”, “Mild demeanor”? Sounds a lot like some of the same notes and criticisms of a young Mitchell Robinson.
Gobert barely played in his rookie year but showed that he was a productive and promising player in years 2 and 3. He had some advanced metrics to back up the fact that he was very much developing into a defensive force.
Unlike Jordan and Capela, Gobert isn’t quite as much of a springy leaper. His physical gifts come in the form of his record-breaking wingspan, footspeed, and athletic coordination.
Gobert isn’t thought of as an offensive dynamo but he has a pretty soft touch close to the rim. He’s an efficient scorer with a few post moves in his bag. Robinson has yet to show the same skillset with the ball in his hands, but maybe there’s room for a 23-year-old to still develop his game?
So finally, with all of these undeniable similarities in early career development, production, and growth to some premier centers in the game, is Mitchell Robinson headed to the next level of his game sooner rather than later?
NY Knicks: What’s next for Mitchell Robinson?
Here we are entering year 4 and Mitchell Robinson will be heading into the final year of his rookie contract.
Still a few years away from entering his prime, Robinson has shown the NY Knicks plenty of reasons to sign him to an extension.
If the Knicks were to get rid of Robinson, what would be the plan at center? Draft someone and pray they’re as good as him? Start Nerlens Noel?
The idea that Robinson would be overvalued at a contract of 15 million per year is bizarre to me. A 23-year old center who is an established shot blocker and rebounder at 15 million per year is not only a very tradeable contract, it could wind up being a tremendous value for New York.
What gets lost in the Mitchell Robinson conversation nowadays is how raw he was coming into the league. We’re talking about a player who didn’t play organized basketball the year before he was drafted and came into the league averaging 2.4 blocks in 20.6 minutes per game.
Maybe the fact he actually played a sizeable amount of minutes in his rookie year has cursed his narrative. The idea that after his rookie year he was going to take big incremental jumps in his traditional stats, and by now he’d be developing a 3-point shot and 4-dribble combos.
Young centers take time. There’s a reason only one center (Karl-Anthony Towns) has won Rookie of The Year in the last 15 seasons.
Remember the NY Knicks teams that Robinson was drafted into?
I know you’ve probably repressed them in your minds but before last season he was playing under the tutelage of David Fizdale with Willy Hernangomez, Kristaps Porzingis, Noah Vonleh, and Enes Kanter as his frontcourt running mates.
The guards that he was able to run pick & rolls with included Elfrid Payton, Trey Burke, Emmanuel Mudiay, and the recently retired Ron Baker.
Now he has Tom Thibodeau and Kenny Payne as his basketball senseis? He gets a season of being the roll-man for Kemba Walker, Derrick Rose, Evan Fournier, and RJ Barrett? This is his chance to show how dominant he can be with talent around him.
In my recent player stats projections article, I had Robinson playing in 79% of next season’s games with averages of 10.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game. It’s a statistical jump, but I think it’s an attainable one.
Last year’s NY Knicks may have had their best season since 2013 with Robinson injured for half of it, but make no mistake, he’s an important piece of this team’s young core and nucleus going forward. It’s hard to find any evidence that this is the plateau of Robinson’s NBA career. He’s just getting started.