New York Knicks: Full Player Stats Projections For 2021-22

The New York Knicks roster for 2021-22 is all but set.

It was a busy offseason that saw NY bring back almost all of last year’s squad while adding new players Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier as well as rookies Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, and Jericho Sims.

New York Knicks: Stats Projections for 2021-22

The New York Knicks improved their roster this season, but so did a lot of teams. As of now, a safe prediction would be that the Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets, and Philadelphia 76ers will retain hold of the top 3 seeds. After that it gets messy.

The Knicks, Hawks, Heat, and Celtics are all presumed playoff teams. That doesn’t take into account the rising Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets, as well as “wildcard” teams such as the Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards, and Indiana Pacers.

The Tom Thibodeau-led Knicks are going to stick to the philosophy that led to a lot of their success last season – defense. This team isn’t going to change its identity.

A suffocating, energy-draining defensive scheme and a slower, isolation-heavy offense.

However, there is reason to believe that NY can have a more dynamic offense this upcoming season.

Replacing Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock with Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker in their starting lineup does wonders for the team’s offensive projection in just about every statistical model.

NY has some good problems to have on their roster. These “good problems” include finding minutes for young rookies and sophomores who are playing behind a deep roster, allocating minutes between point guards Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose, and figuring out late-game lineups and choosing between players like Barrett, Fournier, and Burks for certain spots.

In these projections, I’m factoring in missed games. I can’t predict injuries but I can use recent history as something to factor into a player’s projection. These factor into projections. For example, there are going to be some Immanuel Quickley 30 minute games this season because there could be a few games where the team is missing both Alec Burks and Kemba Walker.

Let’s get into it.

New York Knicks: Julius Randle Stats Projection 2021-22

• 77 Games played
• 36.1 Minutes per game
• 22.5 Points per game
• 5.6 Assists per game
• 10.6 Rebounds per game
• 45.9% Field goal %
• 39.4% 3-point field goal %
• 82.0% free throw %

The fearless leader, the NBA’s Most Improved Player, and a member of the All-NBA 2nd team.

Julius Randle was the focal point of the New York Knicks offense last season. Even with new additions, they’re not going to get away from what worked last season.

For the most part, we will still see a lot of Julius Randle in the high post, and he’s still going to lead this team in usage rate.

Did the team add more ball-handlers on the perimeter? Absolutely.

With Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier in the starting lineup, I do expect New York to get more creative with new elements of the pick-and-roll offense and increased movement on the perimeter incorporated into their team philosophy.

They’re still not going to get away from what brought them so much success last year.

Yes, Julius Randle struggled mightily in the playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks shaded extra defenders in his direction every time he had the ball and decided to challenge other Knicks, who were getting great looks and matchups as a result, to beat them.

Now, while teams may try to copy parts of the Hawks’ strategy at times, it’s going to be much less effective with New York having two new instant-offense, ball-handling scorers in Walker and Fournier. Those guys can get their own shot.

Randle’s efficiency and points per game may take a slight dip, but I fully expect him to be the same player as last season and make a push for another All-NBA team.

New York Knicks: Evan Fournier Stats Projection 2021-22

• 68 Games played
• 31.1 Minutes Per Game
• 15.9 Points Per Game
• 3.8 Assists Ger Game
• 3.0 Rebounds Per Game
• 1.0 Steals Per Game
• 0.2 Blocks Per Game
• 44.6% FG %
• 40.4% 3pFG%
• 80.2% FT %

The New York Knicks went out and landed one of the top free agents on the market in Evan Fournier.

Some of the offensive creation and scoring issues that were just mentioned in relation to Julius Randle’s playoff struggles are exactly why NY went out and got the Frenchman. At this point in his career, we know what we’re getting with Evan Fournier.

I do believe there is a solid argument here that Fournier could be playing closer to 35 minutes due to the fact that the Knicks went out and paid him a large contract and the fact that their coach is Tom Thibodeau.

I tend to believe that he’s going to be closer to the 30 minutes per-game mark than 35. Fournier is one of many “option B” players on this team. Between Fournier, Barrett, Walker, and Rose, it’s a hodgepodge of secondary scorers. Fournier is going to be one of the most important pieces on the team, but no one is going to be asking to be the “1-B” to Julius Randle just because of his contract. He’s never been that guy.

Fournier had tremendous efficiency numbers in his short time in Boston – He shot 46.1% from 3. The gravity that Jayson Tatum alone gave Fournier some nice looks on the perimeter and Fournier shot 51% on catch and shoot 3s. 

I don’t expect him to hit those numbers, but I do believe Fournier can absolutely shoot north of 40% from 3 on the Knicks and will plenty of 20+ point games this season.

While his points per game may seem a tad low his efficiency numbers should look great.

New York Knicks: RJ Barrett Stats Projection 2021-22

• 80 Games Played
• 34.8 Minutes Per Game
• 18.6 Points Per Game
• 3.3 Assists Per Game
• 6.3 Rebounds Per Game
• 1.2 Steals Per Game
• 0.3 Blocks Per Game
• 45.8% FG %
• 38.8% 3pFG%
• 76.0% FT %

We saw RJ Barrett take a big leap from his rookie to his sophomore season, and while these don’t seem like a big increase in traditional per-game stats, I do expect Barrett’s efficiency to take another noticeable jump.

Similarly to the argument that Fournier will play the 2nd biggest role on the team due to his contract, you could say that RJ Barrett may actually see a decrease in his stats from 2020-21 because he’ll be behind both Kemba and Fournier in the offensive pecking order.

I actually think RJ’s numbers, especially his efficiency, will only benefit from the new-look roster.

He’s going to look great playing off of Fournier and Walker and I expect him to be taking a higher volume of 3-pointers this season.

You have to factor in that Barrett just seemed to be getting better as the season progressed. His at-the-rim finishing was still poor, but you saw some flashes of not just stronger finishing but more adept finishing close to the basket.

Little mid-range pullups, stepbacks — Barrett is starting to figure out how to play to his strengths and find his favorite spots on the floor. It’s going to start to translate into higher efficiency both off-ball and with the ball in his hands.

The consistency is going to start coming for RJ Barrett in year 3. You could say Tom Thibodeau likes to lean on his veterans, but really, I think the more accurate description is that he likes to lean on his “Thibs guys”.

Year 3 Jimmy Butler, who only averaged 13 points per game, was playing 38.7 minutes under Tom Thibodeau in Chicago. I think we’re going to start seeing a similar thing develop with RJ Barrett, where he becomes such a durable and integral part of the New York Knicks’ on-court identity that you’ll rarely see him off the court.

New York Knicks: Kemba Walker Stats Projection 2021-22

• 50 Games Played
• 27.9 Minutes Per Game
• 16.7 Points Per Game
• 4.0 Assists Per Game
• 2.9 Rebounds Per Game
• 1.0 Steals Per Game
• .1 Blocks Per Game
• 42.9% FG %
• 37.2% 3pFG %
• 87.8% FT%

I hate projecting injuries but if I’m going to take an educated guess using recent injury history and the wear and tear of a full season, I’d presume that Kemba Walker will play in a little over 50% of the games this season.

Even at Kemba Walker’s introductory press conference with the Knicks, he was asked about his knee and his expectations. When asked if he was playing in the 2nd game of back-to-backs this season, Walker passed the question over to coach Thibodeau, who responded with a blunt “he’s playing” that got everyone in the room to laugh.

There are going to be some Kemba Walker 30 minutes, 25 point games. There are also going to be some 18 minutes, 10 point games.

All of these expectations of playing an important, yet limited role were baked into Kemba’s discounted contract price of 8 million per year.

We’re going to see Walker take Elfrid Payton’s role from last season and take it to a new level. There’s an essence, a star quality, a je ne sais quoi to Kemba Walker starting at point guard for the New York Knicks.

Walker put up productive numbers when he played for the Celtics last season but he was also expected to help propel them into contention to win the Eastern Conference. At least, that was the expectation when he first got there.

With the Knicks, they will rely on him to be one of the aforementioned “secondary scorers” surrounding Julius Randle.

Walker has the experience and ball-handling chops where more often than not we could see him initiating the offense. Health is everything and taking care of his body so that the Knicks get the best possible version of Kemba Walker every time he steps on the court.

New York Knicks: Mitchell Robinson Stats Projection 2021-22

• 65 Games Played
• 28.5 Minutes Per Game
• 10.6 Points Per Game
• 11.0 Rebounds Per Game
• 0.4 Assists Per Game
• 1.9 Blocks Per Game
• 1.3 Steals Per Game

This is going to be a fun year for Mitchell Robinson.

Now entering his 4th season and the final year of his rookie contract, Robinson took some big steps forward in his game that didn’t always show up in his individual stats.

Ariel Pacheco, who writes for The Strickland, had a great thread of video clips and analysis detailing Mitchell Robinson’s impact.

Robinson’s added strength, discipline, and overall awareness all showed on the court last season, a season which was unfortunately derailed by injuries.

Robinson played in 61 out of 66 possible games in 2018-19, so I think 65/82 games is a fair projection.

Robinson led the league in box-outs per game when he was healthy last season and I see a nice uptick in points per game and rebounds per game. Now he gets to play with Walker – Barrett- Fournier on the perimeter?

He has a few different playmakers now and there are going to be more than a few Robinson alley-oop dunks this season. His ability to physically match some of the best centers in the league and be a wrecking ball in the pain was sorely missed in the playoffs. The gravity he brings as a flailing colossus when he crashes to the rim is going to be a key ingredient in the Knicks’ scheme on offense.

This is a huge year for him to prove that he’s an important long-term piece,  and if he’s healthy, expect him to finish the season with some of the top efficiency, rebounding, and defensive metrics of any big man in the NBA.

New York Knicks: Derrick Rose Stats Projection 2021-22

• 56 Games Played
• 24.8 Minutes Per Game
• 13.8 Points Per Game
• 3.0 Assists Per Game
• 2.3 Rebounds Per Game
• 0.7 Steals Per Game
• 0.2 Blocks Per Game
• 46.8% FG %
• 37.9 3p FG %
• 86.0% Free Throw %

Derrick Rose signed a 3-year deal to return to New York and he’ll continue to play a leadership role for the Knicks.

It was an interesting dynamic last season where Rose was thriving in the 6th man role (He finished 3rd in the NBA in 6th Man Of The Year voting) but at the same time, fans were clamoring for a change at starting point guard come playoff time.

What ended up happening was Derrick Rose being thrust into the starting lineup in the playoffs, and while Rose performed well individually, the team just didn’t have enough depth or firepower to keep up with Atlanta. They simply couldn’t just bring back Rose as the starter without any new point guard additions.

Now, with Kemba Walker in the mix, the New York Knicks’ point guard situation is a lot more dynamic. I expect Walker and Rose to both miss time, and I expect Rose to have to start more than once this season whenever Kemba needs to sit.

Derrick Rose is a perfect example of a player who’s much better than their traditional stats will show. In order for him to be his most effective, the team needs to be cautious with his playing time.

He’ll continue to thrive with the 2nd unit, but don’t be surprised if Tom Thibodeau goes to lean on Derrick Rose towards the end of games as well.

New York Knicks: Nerlens Noel Stats Projection 2021-22

• 61 Games Played
• 18.1 Minutes Per Game
• 4.3 Points Per Game
• 0.5 Assists Per Game
• 1.5 Blocks Per Game
• 0.9 Steals Per Game
• 58.0% FG %
• 0% 3p FG%
• 72.9% FT %

I think the New York Knicks realized how valuable it is to have a legitimate backup center who can defend the rim and that’s why they went out and re-signed Nerlens Noel.

Noel played so well in Mitchell Robinson’s absence last season that debates even sprung up about how he may be more effective as a starter. Hopefully, those arguments died in the playoffs.

The thing with Noel is that he’s an incredible asset as the team’s backup — he’s someone who thrives as a last line of defense as a rim protector. As a starter, he gets overwhelmed by bigger players, but that’s ok because New York will hopefully have Robinson back to full health by the start of the season.

The Knicks’ second unit is much more offensive-minded and having Nerlens Noel there to defend the rim is a valuable asset on the bench.

His shot-blocking ability is always going to prove to be valuable, and should Robinson get injured, it’s nice to know the team has someone in Noel who can take on a lot of defensive responsibility. Even at just over 18 minutes per game, Noel is going to post impressive totals in blocks and steals.

New York Knicks: Immanuel Quickley Stats Projection 2021-22

• 76 Games Played
• 22.9 Minutes Per Game
• 13.9 Points Per Game
• 3.0 Assists Per Game
• 1.0 Steals Per Game
• .1 Blocks Per Game
• 42.0% Field Goal %
• 41.0% 3p Field Goal %
• 90.1% Free Throw %

There’s going to be an uptick in production for Immanuel Quickley next season.

While some may think the arrival of Kemba Walker will further knockdown Quickley’s playing time, I tend to think he’s going to be playing slightly heavier minutes. Anytime Rose or Walker have to miss a game, Quickley will likely jump to 25-30 minutes.

Not only that, but I don’t expect Walker’s minutes to be that much more than Elfrid Payton’s last season. In 2019-20, Payton started in 63/72 games and averaged 23.6 minutes per game.

On a fully healthy New York Knicks roster, Quickley will assume that same role as an off-the-bench, range-extending flamethrower. He’s a special shooter, and I think we may see that reflected in his traditional stats this season — I have him for over 40% from 3 and over 90% from the line.

Quickley has more all-around talent than he’s given credit for. He fights and communicates well on defense, and hid more than just flash some point guard skills in Summer League, he looked comfortable initiating offense.

It may not be a huge leap this season, but I fully expect Immanuel Quickley to grade out extremely well in advanced metrics and increase his role on the team. He’s on the right trajectory.

New York Knicks: Alec Burks Stats Projection 2021-22

• 59 Games Played
• 21.8 Minutes Per Game
• 12.0 Points Per Game
• 2.0 Assists Per Game
• 1.9 Rebounds Per Game
• .4 Steals Per Game
• .1 Blocks Per Game
• 42.6% Field Goal %
• 40.0% 3p Field Goal %
• 85.1% Free Throw %

Alec Burks can seem like the forgotten man on this roster sometimes. He doesn’t have the big name of Derick Rose or Kemba Walker and he doesn’t have that same “young player love” from the fanbase like Immanuel Quickley or Obi Toppin.

Re-signing Alec Burks was a great move for the New York Knicks.

We saw Burks utilized in a few different spots last season — shooting guard, small forward, and even a little point guard.

I think he’s going to have less responsibility this season. The Knicks 3-year, 30 million dollar deal with a team option on the 3rd year is really not much of a financial commitment.

What Burks lacks in point guard skills/passing vision, he makes up for in underrated ball-handling. Burks knows how to break down his defender, and for someone who’s going to be the 7th, 8th option on offense? Not many teams can say their 8th option on offense can create his own shot as well as Alec Burks.

I do think Thibodeau will lean more on Immanuel Quickley when the team is missing one of their point guards.

Even still, Burks is going to fill up the backup small forward minutes, and he’s more than capable of stepping up when needed. Expect another lights-out, 40% 3-point shooting season from AB.

New York Knicks: Obi Toppin Stats Projection 2021-22

• 76 Games Played
• 15.4 Minutes Per Game
• 7.9 Points Per Game
• 3.3 Rebounds Per Game
• 1.9 Assists Per Game
• 47.0% Field Goal %
• 37.1% 3p Field Goal %
• 77.0% Free Throw %

One of the hardest players to project right now is Obi Toppin.

Not much has changed in terms of his avenue to playing time on the roster. He’s playing behind Julius Randle, but on top of that, it’s hard for him to line up anywhere outside of power forward.

Now, this debate has been a pretty divisive topic among New York Knicks fans — Should Obi Toppin get minutes at the 3 or the 5?

I believe that I’m in the minority when I say he’d be more effective at small forward than at the center position, but here’s why.

We know Obi Toppin struggled a lot on defense last season, but when we did see flashes late last season of confident defense, it was always along the perimeter.

Toppin has really unflexible hips and choppy lateral foot speed, however, he has the length and athleticism to recover on jump shots. So while he may get crossed over a lot on the perimeter, we actually saw him late last season start to put himself in better defensive positions for him to recover with his length. It’s not something he can really do when trying to box out a much heavier center.

I understand he has the leaping ability, but he gets absolutely demolished in the paint. His strength is nowhere near NBA centers, so really, Toppin has to find a consistent role as a forward, and he could thrive along the perimeter as a shooter and cutter toward the rim. Thibodeau is always going to rely on Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson to fill those backup center minutes.

There will be moments for Obi to shine, and I actually think we’re going to see him let it fly a little more this season. I have a really hard time believing that his 30.6% 3-point shooting was a true indicator of his shooting touch.

Expect Toppin to grow defensively, increase his long-range shooting volume and efficiency, and be an important part of the team’s 2nd unit. I think we’re going to see a more confident Obi Toppin in year 2 with new wrinkles in his offensive game.

New York Knicks: Quentin Grimes Stats Projection 2021-22

• 55 Games Played
• 13.0 Minutes Per Game
• 7.0 Points Per Game
• 0.7 Assists Per Game
• 1.8 Rebounds Per Game
• 0.6 Steals Per Game
• 0.2 Blocks Per Game
• 42.8% Field Goal %
• 37.5% 3p Field Goal %
• 77.9% Free Throw %

It’s going to be tough for the New York Knicks rookies to crack the rotation. Between the team’s depth and the fact that Grimes wasn’t selected until pick 25, there just isn’t enough to say right now as to why he’d be getting significant minutes over established players on the team.

Grimes already seems to carry a reputation as a guy who does the “little things”. A Hard-nosed defender who has nice size and frame on the perimeter, it’s going to be fun to see Grimes when he is on the court with the 2nd unit.

We saw him showcase his potential on offense throughout the NBA Summer League — He may already be a terrific catch-and-shoot option, but there could be some more untapped potential for Grimes as a complete scorer.

Should Fournier, Burks, or Barrett miss any games, Grimes could step into a spot where he’s close to touching 20 minutes, but I would temper expectations for the rookie this season.

It’s going to be fun to see how Quentin Grimes grows and evolves as a complimentary piece of this roster under Tom Thibodeau, it feels like a perfect match.

New York Knicks: Taj Gibson Stats Projection 2021-22

• 40 Games Played
• 4.1 Points Per Game
• 3.5 Rebounds Per Game
• 0.6 Assists Per Game
• 0.8 Blocks Per Game
• 0.7 Steals Per Game
• 64.1% Field Goal %
• 0% 3p Field Goal %
• 72.4% Free Throw %

As long as Tom Thibodeau is the coach, Taj Gibson will be around on the New York Knicks roster.

Ol’ lunch pail, first-to-clock-in-last-to-clock-out, blue-collar Taj Gibson. It may not look like much by just looking at basketball reference box scores but Taj Gibson blew any preseason expectations he had out of the water.

No matter what the score or the situation, Gibson was there rallying the team. You would think he’s 7 feet tall and 30 years old by the way he bruises and battles in the paint.

With both Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel healthy, there isn’t going to be much playing time for Taj Gibson and he’ll likely have more than a few DNPs.

When he does take the court, don’t expect him to have limited minutes. We saw just how much Thibodeau loved leaning on Gibson when Mitchell Robinson went down with an injury.

Gibson brings a level of energy on offense and on the glass that Nerlens Noel does not, so he’s an important depth piece for this team outside of just veteran leadership and experience.

Don’t mistake Taj Gibson for being the Udonis Haslem of the New York Knicks. Should anything happen to the other two Knicks centers, Gibson will be there to take on a sizeable role.

New York Knicks: Miles McBride Stats Projection 2021-22

• 48 Games Played
• 9.7 Minutes Per Game
• 4.7 Points Per Game
• 1.5 Assists Per Game
• 1.0 Rebounds Per Game
• 0.7 Steals Per Game
• 0.1 Blocks Per Game
• 41.1% Field Goal %
• 37.9% 3p Field Goal %
• 82.0% Free Throw %

The final player on this projections list is rookie Miles “Deuce” McBride.

Much like Quentin Grimes, it’s going to be hard for McBride to find a consistent role in his rookie season.

Coming off a Summer League where we just saw him light it up on defense and as a shooter, it may sound crazy to think that he’ll play less than 10 minutes per game. Maybe it is, but it’s just hard to find a pathway where he’s getting minutes over all of the guards on the roster.

Not trying to compare the two as overall prospects/players, but I do feel like his role in his rookie season will be strikingly similar to Frank Ntilikina’s last season. A bottom of the bench, combo guard option.

McBride may already be the best defensive point guard on the roster. His lateral quickness, anticipation, and ridiculous wingspan is a recipe of individual preimeter defense talent that the New York Knicks don’t currently have on the roster.

If he does end up seeing the court more than anticipated, it will be on the back of his defense.

I’m sure we’ll get to see some flashes of the Quickley-McBride backcourt that we saw in Summer League. For now, expect McBride to be a reserve player who could play a 3-and-D role when called upon.