The NY Knicks just wrapped up a season that exceeded expectations with homecourt advantage in round one of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The team was dismissed unceremoniously from those proceedings by an Atlanta Hawks team that highlighted the areas where the franchise still needs to grow.
Even though Leon Rose is only beginning his second offseason at the helm, he is already finding himself at an interesting crossroads. There is no certainty in life, and as such, neither path he could choose is guaranteed to net the Knicks their first title since the 1970s.
Knicks fans know these approaches all too well.
NY Knicks have a big offseason ahead
There’s the “build the right way” option. Rose could use all four draft picks in the upcoming draft, sign a few key free agents on team-friendly deals, and set the course of the franchise to continue developing young talent and acquiring assets.
It remains to be seen if notoriously short-term-focused governor James Dolan, who has been close-lipped throughout the entirety of the Rose tenure, will even allow that to be the option.
The other potential option for Rose would be to sell high on some of the young assets he has accrued and make a move for a superstar. The NBA is a superstar-driven league, and that will have to be the move at some point. Rose has to decide if the superstars available to him right now are the ones worth acquiring.
The ultimate dream of both scenarios is winning an NBA championship.
So what would be the dream offseason? The one that results in a championship in the ensuing league year.
Here at Daily Knicks, we outline the moves that could take the Knicks one step closer to a championship next season.
Players who will leave the NY Knicks in free agency
Before I get too far into the dream scenario I am outlining here, it is important to first discuss who from this year’s team will not be on the Knicks next year.
The NBA’s most recent projections for the salary cap and luxury tax line are $112 million and $136.6 million respectively. I give the Knicks fan base a lot of credit for having loyalty to certain players, but sometimes to improve in the NBA you have to cut ties with guys you like.
Elfrid Payton:
Did you see what I did there? Anyway, this one is a no-brainer for Leon Rose. It’s time to move on from Elfrid Payton. I won’t continue to pile on Elf because he is still a human being. It’s just time to move on. Let’s leave it at that.
Frank Ntilikina:
This is the really tough one for Knicks fans to handle. He is a mythical creature in certain segments of the fanbase, but his play on the court has never quite lived up to the ethos around him. When trying to build a championship contender even something as small as what Ntilikina will likely make next year could be a make-or-break piece.
If a defensive-minded coach like Tom Thibodeau couldn’t make it work for Ntilikina with the Knicks, I don’t think anyone can. The Knicks will cut ties by declining to extend a qualifying offer. The Charlie Ward curse continues.
Alec Burks:
This is a dollar and cents move. The Knicks will need to keep one of Burks or Bullock for what they provide on the wing. I give the advantage to Bullock for a few reasons. First and foremost, I think he will be a more cost-efficient option on the open market and the Knicks have Early Bird Rights. Second, he gives a bit more on the defensive end.
Burks had a great year with the Knicks and is likely in for a payday because of it. That payday just likely will not be accompanied by a Leon Rose handshake.
Jared Harper:
Harper is a promising young player at only 23-year-old, but every penny counts, and he will not be on the Knicks 14-man roster next year.
The NY Knicks pull off a draft-night trade for Damian Lillard
Bleacher Report recently put together this package for a Knicks/Blazers swap centered around Damian Lillard:
Every “build the right way” Knicks fan just turned into that meme where the guy is sweating over which button to push.
On the one hand, the Knicks are having to give up RJ, Mitch, and IQ in this deal. That is no small haul. Every fan is having traumatic flashbacks to giving up too many young players in the move for Carmelo Anthony. In their head, this is the exact same thing. This is especially true when it comes to RJ.
On the other hand, getting Lillard from the Blazers and still having a 1st round draft pick every year seems too good to be true, especially considering the draft pick hauls that players like Anthony Davis and James Harden have netted their former teams.
Here is the key piece with trading for Damian Lillard: It is a win-now move. If Rose makes this deal, he either believes A) a Lillard-Randle headlined roster is enough to compete for an NBA Finals berth out of the Eastern Conference or B) he thinks he can get there with the right moves with his remaining cap space.
The simple fact is that this team will trade for Damian Lillard if that is the offer. They will then try to surround him with as much talent as possible.
Another key thing to consider in this conversation is what the team does with Kevin Knox. Let’s say the Knicks are able to move him, both of this year’s second-round picks, and a future second-round pick to the Thunder for the 18th overall pick in this year’s draft. Given the creativity pre-draft last year from Brock Aller, this does not feel like a pipe dream.
The NY Knicks draft players at spots 18 and 21
As stated on the previous slide, the Knicks were able to regain a 1st round pick by moving Kevin Knox and three second-round picks to the Thunder. The NY Knicks will use that pick to select a person Jonathan Givnoy just mocked at pick 18 after the combine: Moses Moody.
Tom Thibodeau will not have to look far to find someone who can give him an inside scoop on Moody. Moody’s college basketball coach, Eric Musselman, has a long-standing relationship with Thibodeau through Musselman’s father, Bill.
Moody fits a lot of needs for this team, but what is most exciting is that Moody had the “top measurement amongst guards” in wingspan at almost 7’1″. That wingspan is going to allow him to guard bigger players.
Moody can also shoot it and rebounds well for a guard. Based on his ability to impact the game without the ball in his hands last year at Arkansas, he should be a really nice fit on a Knicks roster headlined by Lillard and Randle.
Coach Tom Thibodeau recently said that the NY Knicks are looking for wings that can shoot, so do not be surprised when the Knicks grab a seemingly redundant player three picks after selecting Moody. Duarte definitely checks those boxes. Chris Duarte shot 42% from three-point range last year and boasted a 63% effective field goal percentage.
If that weren’t enough, Duarte was also a First-Team all Pac-12 Defensive Team selection. He was “the only major conference player” to average 1.8 steals per game while also shooting 50% from the floor.
His age (23) shouldn’t scare off the Knicks who are clearly in win-now mode based on the Lillard trade. He brings a ton of value to the table at pick number 21.
Before we move on, let’s check in with the cap situation as it currently stands.
The NY Knicks will pick up Randle’s option, which is now at $21.7 million due to incentives earned, but will wait on his extension. Moody and Duarte would make $2.9 million and $2.5 million respectively.
Earlier this week, I tweeted this idea. I still believe that to be true, but I don’t think Leon Rose (or James Dolan) would agree with me.
It is possible the Knicks could get there, though. If the Knicks cut ties with everyone but Lillard and Randle, they would have approximately $44.6 million in cap space when you factor in Noah’s dead money. If they signed Kawhi Leonard (assuming he opts out) to the exact same starting salary as Lillard ($39.3 million) and they signed two first-round picks as I have projected here, that leaves the Knicks with only their Mid-Level Exception and Bi-Annual Exception and a bunch of minimum players to fill out the roster.
The basketball Cerebus of Leonard/Lillard/Randle with two 3 and D wings looks like a title contender on paper, but the bench would likely be incredibly thin. It also puts a ton of pressure on Moody and Duarte to be ready to go immediately. The Knicks front office will look at the Hawks example and opt instead to try to put as much talent as possible around two key pieces.
With Lillard, Randle, Toppin, Vildoza, Pelle, Moody, Duarte (plus keeping the cap holds for both Bullock and Rose and the Noah dead cap space) the Knicks have approximately $13.87 million in cap space remaining and five spots to fill.
NY Knicks use remaining cap space to sign Evan Fournier ($41.61 million/3 years)
The Knicks are going to look at their roster after draft night and see two key issues. First, they have no starting-caliber center on the roster. Second, they just drafted two wings who can shoot the 3 and defend but may not be ready to start for a team that is trying to push for a high playoff spot immediately.
Let’s also be honest about it: in the modern NBA, you cannot have enough three-point shooting. Fournier shot a blazing 46% from three during his time in Boston last season. Per Cleaning the Glass, that put him in the 98th percentile for on threes at his position. You want a guy like that on your team come playoff time.
You have to imagine he could replicate those figures playing alongside Damian Lillard and Julius Randle. Fournier, per NBA.com, is at his best in catch-and-shoot or one-dribble situations. Those opportunities seem like they could be bountiful in an offense spearheaded by Lillard and Randle.
And while no one is confusing Fournier with the greatest defenders of all time, he generally hovers just slightly below average in Defensive Box Plus/Minus. Tom Thibodeau will be able to find the defensive matchups that work for him. Plus, if either Moody or Duarte pan out as strong defenders, they could draw key defensive matchups when the situations called for them.
It’s also important to note that despite the hairline, the man is only 28 years old with a skillset that has staying power in the NBA. This would be a solid deal for the NY Knicks.
NY Knicks use a combination of re-signed players and minimum salaries to fill out their roster
At this point, the Knicks have reached the $112 million salary cap. They still have the Mid-Level ($9.5 million) and Bi-Annual ($3.7 million) Exceptions available to them. They also still have pretty glaring holes at the center position.
The Knicks will move in this order to finish constructing their roster.
Mid-Level Exception: Nerlens Noel ($16 million/2 years)
Fans will point to his inability to catch anything that is thrown in his direction on offense as a reason to avoid Nerlens Noel entirely. I would hear that argument, but present the counter-point that he does exactly what Tom Thibodeau wants his bigs to do on the defensive end. All that will be asked of him will be to protect the rim and occasionally get a putback dunk or two. The Knicks could offer him up to $9.5 million, but they will not use the full exception on him to avoid the luxury tax.
Remaining Mid-Level Exception: Hassan Whiteside ($1.5 million/1 year)
The Knicks will use their remaining Mid-Level Exception money on more depth at center. By doing it this way, the Knicks are able to save their Bi-Annual Exception.
Whiteside seems to fit the Thibs mold at the center position. Last year he averaged 8 points, 6 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks in only 15 minutes of play. He could easily find those kinds of minutes in the Knicks bench rotation next year, and he will use them productively. That rim protection and rebounding off the bench would be a steal at $1.5 million.
Early Bird Deals: Derrick Rose ($15 million/2 years) and Reggie Bullock ($12 million/2 years)
The Knicks will be interested in bringing back both Derrick Rose and Reggie Bullock to help complete their roster. Bullock would likely start until either Moody or Duarte proved ready for that spot. Rose would slide back into the 6th man role where he was most successful this year as an offensive spark plug.
One-Year Minimum Deals: Taj Gibson and Theo Pinson
They are fan and locker room favorites and a great way to fill out the roster. Gibson also proved in the playoffs that he still has some gas left in the tank when it’s time to win.
That leaves the Knicks with the following roster construction next year:
PG: Lillard
SG: Bullock
SF: Fournier
PF: Randle
C: Noel
6: Rose
7: Toppin
8: Moody
9: Duarte
10: Whiteside
11: Vildoza
12: Gibson
13: Pelle
14: Pinson
When you look at the starting five for most of the final stretch of the season, the Knicks essentially turn RJ Barrett and Elfrid Payton into Damian Lillard and Evan Fournier. The bench unit will again be driven by Rose. Even though the second rotation lost Quickley and Burks, they were replaced by two exciting prospects in Moody and Duarte.
Is this a championship contender? There are no certainties in life, but it certainly looks on paper like a team to watch in the wild Eastern conference.