The New York Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks are set to face off in what might be the most tightly contested first-round series of the 2021 NBA playoffs.
Both New York and Atlanta are two of the hottest teams in the league. Over their last 15 games, the Knicks have gone 11-4 while the Hawks are 10-5. They finished the season with the same record: 41-31.
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks will be a chess match
New York was 3-0 against Atlanta this year, but don’t let that dominate the narrative heading into this series. Atlanta has been a different team since they promoted Nate McMillan to head coach mid-season.
These teams will mostly be at full health and will have zero excuses.
It’s not just the records that are identical – these teams with many similarities in their respective 2021 journeys. If you asked Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks fans if this season was already a success, they would instantly say yes.
These are younger teams who are experiencing success for the first time in a long time. Teams whose excitement is not just a result of being in the playoffs today but the fact that they have foundations for lasting success.
Both squads are coming into the playoffs with very little postseason experience. So while the storylines and the energy around these two teams may be similar, there is a lot of contrast in the player personnel.
An explosive backcourt with a variety of secondary wing scorers, the Hawks are a handful.
A relentless 250lb “point-forward” surrounded by elite shooting, the Knicks are a handful.
Both of these teams are going to be handfuls and it has the look of a series that will be decided by coaching. Let’s look at some of the key matchups to watch for in this series.
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks: NY has to slow down not just 1, but 2 terrific guards
Trae Young is the franchise player. His success is directly tied to the Atlanta Hawks’ success.
One of the best long-range shooting point guards in the NBA, Young has actually been taking fewer threes per game under Nate McMillan. The young point guard has been looking to attack the rim, and he has the shiftiness to get by players 1-on-1. He’s a scorer and a facilitator.
This isn’t as obvious as “slow down the Atlanta Hawks’ best player”, because it’s not just Trae Young that’s been lethal this year. It’s the combination of Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanović on the court together that has been taken ATL to another level.
With Trae Young, I’m sure New York will do plenty of overloading on his side of the court. Thibodeau and his team have played ice coverages throughout the season, where they defend pick and rolls by forcing the ball-handlers to the side where they’re squeezed into running into the Nerlens’ Wall.
It’s exhausting to play against, especially when you rotate as well as New York does. The thing is, the Hawks have shown they can beat those overloads.
It starts with Trae Young’s passing – he’s able to make high-level cross-court whip passes. His backcourt mate, Bogdanović, has an incredibly quick release. The rotating defender has to get up in Bogdanović’s face ASAP.
Even the Hawks’ other shooters: Snell, Huerter, Hunter, and Collins are able to consistently get good looks as a result of their backcourt passing.
The on-court chemistry between Young and Bogdanović has been fantastic. We’ve seen coach McMillan give plenty of ball-handling duties to Bogdanović. McMillan has allowed him to blossom into a secondary facilitator and it’s not only taken some pressure off of Young but it’s also allowed him to not have to create his own shot 100% of the time. Defenses can’t just completely zero in on Young.
New York will continue to throw pressure Trae Young’s way, and while I do think NY can slow down his scoring, he can carve them up with the aforementioned passing – he had 14 assists in 30 minutes in their last meeting.
When you look at the Knicks’ roster, there aren’t many perimeter defenders with “elite” reputations. Still, they’ve consistently been one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Knicks allow the lowest 3-point percentage to their opponents – which is again, a testament to how well they rotate on defense.
The New York Knicks will throw a variety of looks Trae Young’s way, whether it be one of their point guards Elfrid Payton, Frank Ntilikina, or Derrick Rose, or their best perimeter defender, Reggie Bullock, who has spent some time defending Young this season. That means RJ Barrett will be tasked with defending Bogdanović, which will be an enormous task for the 20-year-old.
The Young-Bogdanović backcourt has been the engine of the Atlanta Hawks.
The engine for the New York Knicks has been their 6’8 point-linebacker.
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks: Is there any way to slow down Julius Randle?
I recently put out an article about just how hard it has been for the Hawks to contain Julius Randle this season. Multiple 40-point games on ridiculous efficiency, the Atlanta Hawks are straight-up just not well equipped to defend Julius Randle.
The biggest caveat here is that they only had DeAndre Hunter for 1 of their matchups this season, who is easily Atlanta’s best perimeter defender. Considering how badly John Collins has gotten burned by Randle, I’d expect McMillan to try and get Hunter matched up with Randle right out of the gate.
Still, it’s not that simple. Thibodeau and his team will pretty easily use some simple rubs and picks to get Randle into some mismatches in his favorite spots.
In a funny way, there is a similar concept here to what I just discussed about Trae Young and his ability to make difficult passes that can break double teams and defensive pressure.
The New York Knicks have built their offense around Randle making those same passes. They’re just coming from the low post and elbow as opposed to out of a pick & roll.
Randle can find the creases in the defense where his outside shooters are peaking out. Barrett, Burks, Quickley, Rose, and Bullock – they will make anyone who is just a step slow to rotate pay for their transgressions (Clyde Frazier voice).
Can Hunter slow down Randle’s scoring? Maybe.
Can John Collins effectively track Reggie Bullock around screens? Can Trae Young and Bogdanović do anything defensively to keep pace with Derrick Rose and RJ Barrett? I’m not so sure.
It’s going to get dicey for the Atlanta Hawks, who have been prone to defensive lapses.
Julius Randle and his New York Knicks have played physical basketball since December 2020. They’re going to be well-prepared for the tighter whistles of the playoffs.
So while the Hawks backcourt and Julius Randle have been the engines of offense, playoff basketball is frequently decided by scrappy plays.
Not just Trae Young step-back threes or Randle baseline fadeaways, but sometimes the lesser-remembered rebound or turnover will decide the game or a series.
There is another matchup that may not get the headlines, but could be a deciding factor in this series.
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks: New York must survive Clint Capela
It’s been something that has flown under the radar to an extent, but the New York Knicks are not a good offensive rebounding team.
Mitchell Robinson was a 1-man wrecking crew on the boards, and their offensive rebounding numbers have plummeted without him. New York is 28th in the league in that category since April 1st.
Again, this is the playoffs where scrappy, non-memorable plays can decide the course of a game. There have already been a few games this season where offensive rebounding has killed the Knicks in a game where they would lose by just 1 or 2 points.
Even easier to forget are some of the games that they’ve won where rebounding almost ruined the game. I can think of a few games during the Knicks’ 9 game win streak that should have been comfortable victories but ended up being nail-biters due to getting obliterated on the boards.
The Atlanta Hawks have the best rebounder in the NBA in Clint Capela.
Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson will make you work to fight for every rebound, but they don’t have anywhere near the athleticism that Capela does. New York is going to have to scratch and claw for every board. It may be enough.
There could be a game in this series where the New York Knicks played smothering defense, hit difficult shots, but ultimately lose the game because they never scored any 2nd chance points.
The focus will be on the stars, but it could be a Taj Gibson Box-out or a Clint Capela offensive rebound that decides the game.
Whatever the pivotal points of this series may be, we are only scratching the surface of how many players and matchups will play a big role in this tightly contested series. This one could easily go 7 games.