NY Knicks: The key stats behind Immanuel Quickley’s “Elite potential”

The NY Knicks added a big piece to their “Young core” when they traded up for Immanuel Quickley on draft night. Many draft analysts and knew that Quickley’s biggest strength was his shooting, but the ease with which it has translated to the NBA has been something no one could have seen coming. Quickley’s scoring capabilities are more than advanced for a rookie.

It’s been a long time since the Knicks had a young guard who began catching the attention of fans and players around the league in just their rookie season. It’s not just the fact that Quickley has shown “Flashes” of potential, he’s put together some dominant performances against formidable opponents. The “Swagger”, the “X-Factor”, whatever you want to call it, he’s got it.

NY Knicks: What about Immanuel Quickley’s efficiency?

While Immanuel Quickley has had some big games, some critics might point out his efficiency numbers as a reason to temper the expectations. It’s mostly been praise from Knicks fans and basketball enthusiasts, but there are still some criticisms of Quickley’s low efficiency being a reason to believe that he’s overrated. I’m here to dispel that hollow analysis.

A common knock on Immanuel Quickley is that, on the surface, his shooting percentages are below average. On the season, Quickley has posted a 39.3% field goal percentage to go with a 37.%1 3-point field goal percentage – Not impressive numbers for someone frequently labeled as a “Sharpshooter”. This is where traditional stats can be extremely limited – They don’t tell the full story.

NY Knicks’ Offense: Immanuel Quickley’s Role

The NY Knicks have boasted one of the league’s best defenses in the NBA since the opening night of the 2020-21 season. It’s been the offense that has frequently lost them games. There’s been a lot of inconsistency in the team’s offensive output throughout the season.

Tom Thibodeau’s team has tried to compensate for their lack of playmaking at point guard by divvying up those responsibilities among different players – Primarily Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Elfrid Payton, and Derrick Rose. There are plenty of point-forwards and playmaking centers in today’s NBA, so not having a “Pass-first” guard is not a death sentence. It has, however, clearly popped up as an issue with the Knicks.

A Knicks team at full health usually features Elfrid Payton playing heavy minutes at point guard. This typically hampers the ball movement on offense. With that said, not all of the blame can fall on Payton. Even with some of the outstanding performances from Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley, the Knicks’ point guard play from everyone has been inconsistent.

This isn’t to say Quickley can’t continue and develop his playmaking skills and potentially grow into an NBA point guard. Quickley played point guard throughout high school. However, his stats so far in the NBA show just how much more comfortable he is playing at the 2.

From Cleaning The Glass, Immanuel Quickley’s net efficiency differential (Team points scored per 100 possessions minus team points allowed per 100 possessions) is -1.4 at point guard. At shooting guard? a whopping +10.8. That kind of drastic difference jumps off of the page and makes you wonder just how high this kid could fly if he was able to play alongside a real NBA starting point guard.

NY Knicks: Immanuel Quickley’s Shooting is Elite

With the Knicks’ recent injury to Elfrid Payton and Derrick Rose’s battle with COVID, Immanuel Quickley has had to carry a lot of the playmaking load. Again, it’s a good experience for him, but it’s also been a big factor as to why his shooting percentages have been low.

The 21-year-old has a score-first mindset that can be great, but when he’s tasked with being the team’s lead guard, it’s led to some poor shot selection. Quickley has found himself taking a lot of contested shots – shots where’s he had to work tirelessly to find any inch of space. When Quickley does have that space? He’s automatic.

His ability to create space for himself is something not many rookies can do. He can also become a lethal spot-up shooter – Something The Knicks need to try and get him more involve in.  On the season, Immanuel Quickley is shooting 44.3% on “Catch-and-shoot” 3s. When he’s given the space, he’s going to knock down the shot.

Quickley’s smooth form, ability to comfortable adjust from difficult angles is an indication of more success down the road. You have to trust what you see (Mechanics, ability to shoot off-of-the-dribble, creating space) over field goal%. Quickley’s sky-high 88.5% free throw percentage is yet another strong indicator of future shooting success.

You can think of countless examples of young players who flashed elite scoring early in their careers, but it wasn’t always reflected in the shooting percentages. Of recent cases, I think of how critics pointed to LaMelo Ball’s low percentages in the NBL prior to being drafted. If you sat down and watched LaMelo Ball film, you could tell the low efficiency had more to do with shot-selection and the offense he was in – It’s why he was far and away #1 on my draft board. Here he is in the NBA with better floor spacing and he’s immediately been a standout player who hasn’t had any issues scoring.

Look at Knicks’ forward Kevin Knox’s shooting. Say whatever you want about any other aspect of his game and development, but the second Knox stepped on an NBA court, he had a smooth release on a high arcing shot that makes you say “Oh, he’ll definitely be an effective shooter in the NBA”. Knox had horrific shooting percentages playing in terrible offenses, and although his game hasn’t progressed in other areas, he’s quietly shot over 40% in his limited action this season.

So with Immanuel Quickley, stick with what you see from watching him on the court as opposed to what the box score says. The real question is, just how good can he become?

NY Knicks: Quickley’s long-term outlook

Focusing again on Quickley’s guard skills — What we’ve seen so far is that he is a serviceable, but inconsistent playmaker. He can make some simple reads, but a lot of the time, Quickley’s assists come as a result of a last-resort effort from being bottled up in an attempt to score. He doesn’t always know where open teammates will be before the play happens – and that’s fine. The playmaking will take time for someone who played more 2-guard in college, and perhaps that’s what Immanuel Quickley’s NBA future will be: An elite combo guard.

It was one of the big question marks in his draft profile – He seemed to be a “tweener guard”. In today’s NBA,  positional labels don’t matter too much. Here we are in March of 2021 and Quickley has the 2nd highest player efficiency rating among all rookies.

There are many combo guards in the league who have always had special talent at creating their own shot (Like Quickley) and later developed into effective playmakers. They may not be identical matches with Quickley from a physical or athletic profile, but combo guards like Devin Booker, CJ McCollum, Donovan Mitchell all showcased a similar ability early on in their careers to create space and take NBA defenders off of the dribble. They’ve all increasingly grown as playmakers at the 2-guard spot, and it seems like the ideal trajectory for Immanuel Quickley.

Quickley’s frame sometimes leads people to believe that he’s smaller and weaker than he really is. Quickley can still add weight as he gets older. At 6’3, his 6’9 wingspan has served him well in creating extra space from defenders.

Immanuel Quickley will be a key part of the Knicks’ playoff push this season, but as the team continues to grow and improve their roster, look out for Immanuel Quickley to play his way into an even bigger role. The NY Knicks have an electric scorer waiting to be unleashed.