The New York Knicks have been the surprise of the first half of the 2021 NBA season. The franchise entered the All-Star break with a dazzling 19-18 record, good for the fifth seed in the eastern conference. They are currently on pace to earn their first playoff appearance since the Carmelo Anthony-era of 2012-2013.
The emergence of newly anointed All-Star Julius Randle and the rest of New York’s young cast have propelled the team toward postseason contention. Surprisingly, rookie Immanuel Quickley (selected with the 25th overall pick) has surpassed Collegiate Player of the Year Obi Toppin (taken 8th overall) as the Knicks’ most impressive rookie.
Just a few short months ago, Toppin was a pre-season candidate for Rookie of the Year honors while Quickley was a dark horse with an unknown floor and ceiling. Fast forward just a few short months and these roles have switched.
However, despite a series of early-career struggles, Toppin is still poised to develop into a valuable NBA player. Plenty of rookies have taken time to overcome the NBA learning curve.
Throw in an early leg injury and a series of un-traditional COVID protocols, and it becomes clear that Toppin has faced an unusual number of hurdles. His combination of athleticism and ability to finish above the rim has already led to several highlight plays.
All of this backdrop begs one important question: What can New York expect from Toppin moving forward? Here are three NBA player comparisions that show what he would look like as a role player, a starter, and an All-Star.
Obi Toppin’s Role Player Comp: Derrick Jones Jr.
Most fans would be disappointed for Toppin’s career to land in this range. The Knicks are, and should, expect much more than a bench role from their 2020 lottery pick.
While this option does represent a lower tier of his career potential, filling the role of a player like Derrick Jones Jr. would allow the former Dayton superstar to carve out a long and productive NBA career.
Despite doing undrafted in 2016, Jones Jr. has established himself as one of the premier athletes in the league. His high-flying antics have led to a career full of amazing dunks, posters, and big plays. The 2020 Slam Dunk Contest champion has also learned how to use his tremendous athleticism and leaping ability in other facets of the game. He has developed into a very capable defender and a solid rebounder.
While his career averages sit at just 6.9 points and 3.7 rebounds over his four-year professional career. His PPG average has also surpassed eight in each of the past two seasons.
The most glaring trait that Jones Jr. lacks is a consistent three-point shot. His 29% career mark is far too poor for him to thrive in the modern NBA. Should he ever develop this skill, he would instantly become the type of “3-and-D” player that every team in the league covets.
Toppin’s scouting report seems to indicate that he is a more polished offensive player, who is also more of a defensive liability. However, in this scenario, the Knicks would land a phenomenal athlete, a great finisher, a good defender, and a solid bench option with the skillset to fill in as a starter as needed.
Obi Toppin’s Starter Comp: John Collins
This is the most likely career arc for Toppin. I, like most fans and analysts, expect the highflyer to achieve more than a player like Jones Jr.
John Collins seems to be an ideal player comp for Toppin. Both are known for their athleticism and dangerous above-rim finishing style. Both also share a first-round pedigree and a similar 6’9” 220lb+ frame.
Collins has been a starter for most of his young career as an Atlanta Hawk. He has posted a very solid 16.5 points and 8.6 rebounds per game on 57% shooting. His best season came in 2019 when he contributed 21.6 points and 10.1 rebounds.
While I question whether Toppin will ever become this type of consistent double-double threat, he has all the tools to match Collins in terms of career stat lines.
It would be a natural progression for the Knicks young star to learn to utilize his frame to post 15+ points and 7+ rebounds from the power forward position.
Collins is a tier below the type of talent that considerably moves the needle. In fact, his inclusion in recent trade rumors seems to indicate that even the rebuilding Hawks consider him to have more value as a trade chip than as a building block. However, there is no questioning the type of value of an active presence around the rim.
Collins has also developed a three-point shot that opposing defenses must respect. This will be critical for Toppin to add to his game.
Obi Toppin’s All-Star Comp: Blake Griffin
Let’s use this last player comp to daydream a bit. What if Toppin’s early calf injury has drastically hampered his ability to develop and adjust to the speed of the NBA? What if his heath and comfort levels increase drastically over the second half of his rookie season? What if he quickly surpasses a player like Collins and emerges as a potential star in NYC?
Remember, Toppin was a legitimate superstar in college. His slower start should not define his career. He has the potential to, much like his teammate Randle, develop into a budding star.
Should the 23-year-old’s career skyrocket, a player like Blake Griffin could be an ideal comparison. For the sake of this conversation, we are talking more about the high-flying version of Griffin with the Clippers rather than the incarnation of Griffin with the Pistons that has relied more on ball handling, power post moves, and outside shooting.
There is a legitimate chance for a talent like Toppin to capitalize on his highlights and the bright lights of MSG to turn himself into a household name.
Griffin is a six-time NBA All-Star with a career per-game average of 21.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game on 50% shooting from the floor and 33% shooting from three.
While Toppin would be hard-pressed to establish himself as the same caliber of the superstar has prime-Griffin, he could approach these per game averages.
Which NBA players do you think are the most accurate comparisons for Obi Toppin?