After two straight losses, The New York Knicks currently sit 9-13 on the season. While the team has some work to do to get back to .500, they have clearly played better than expected. The Knicks have only been favored to win 3 of those games. For the season, the oddsmakers expected them to win about 22.5 games. While beating the spread is good, it’s not the true indicator of how good a team is.
During the season it is hard to know how good a team really is because they are not playing the same opponents and number of home games as the other teams in their conference. So in order to have a better idea you need to look at the strength of schedule and point differential.
The Knicks’ Schedule
The Knicks’ strength of schedule (SoS) after the first 20 games is ranked 12th in the NBA. Only two teams in the East have played harder schedules. The Knicks have only played 8 games at home and already have had a West Coast road trip. In total, they have played 8 games against the West, including Utah twice. The Knicks haven’t played any bottom dwellers like Minnesota, Detroit, or Washington.
The Knicks’ Adjusted Net Rating
The other measurement is adjusted net rating (NRtg/A) which is an estimate of point differential per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of schedule. Using that metric, the Knicks would be ranked 17th with a -0.97 NRtg/A, and 9th in the East. So it appears that the Knicks are actually better than the oddsmakers thought.
The Knicks have been outstanding on defense
The Knicks defense has been fantastic and is currently ranked 8th in the NBA with a rating of 107.72 DRtg/A. Coach Thibodeau deserves the credit. Last season, the Knicks were ranked 17th with a 113.6 DRtg/A.
This is impressive when you consider that the roster wasn’t completely turned over and that the team’s best perimeter defender, Frank Ntilikina hasn’t played much due to injury. A lot of the credit goes to Thibodeau for the system he has implemented of protecting the paint and taking away teams’ preferred 3-point shots.
Credit also has to been given to RJ Barrett, whose defense has improved. He has been giving all-out effort on both sides of the court while being one of the league leaders in minutes. Mitchell Robinson has also improved by playing smarter and staying out of foul trouble.
The other noticeable improvement has been in two of the team’s weakest defenders, Julius Randle and Kevin Knox. Both have improved their effort and focus which has resulted in them being better on-ball and team defenders.
You don’t see teams singling out any particular Knick on defense anymore, as this squad doesn’t have any weak links.
The Knicks’ offense has struggled
The issue with the Knicks has been the offense. Their adjusted offensive rating of 107.60 ORtg/A ranks 25th in NBA. While bad, it’s an improvement over last season when they were ranked 29th.
The bright spots have been the play of Julius Randle, Immanuel Quickley, and Austin Rivers. The team is ranked 9th in 3-point shooting, but their efficiency on 2-pointers is not good, they are ranked 29th.
The biggest issue appears to be shot-creation. The team does not have any dynamic ball-handlers. Elfrid Payton is clearly not the answer at point guard, in fact, he might be the issue. His game is not a good fit with the Knicks’ key players; Randle, Barrett, and Robinson.
Having Alec Burks back will help, according to Cleaning the Glass, the Knick are +6.7 per 100 possessions when he is in the lineup. Not having his outside shooting and ball-handling for twelve games crippled the offense.
Playing Burks and Quickley together will provide the spacing Barrett and Randle need to operate.
The Knicks’ Growth
Teams that play great defense usually win more games than they lose. So if the Knicks can improve on offense, they should be in the mix for a playoff seed.
Just going by the eye test, I think the Knicks defense will finish close to the top 10 and that their offense will get better if they make the necessary lineup changes. Hopefully, the Knicks can build on what they’ve done and continue to win more games than expected while developing their young players.