How will the point guard rotation look for the New York Knicks under Tom Thibodeau?
The New York Knicks entered the offseason hoping we wouldn’t be where we are today. In an ideal world, they would have found someone through trade, free agency, or the draft who could have presented them with an obvious answer to the question of who will be the starting point guard this season.
Best laid plans. While the Knicks were ecstatic to have forward Obi Toppin fall into their laps with their lottery pick, attempts to trade up for point guard Tyrese Maxey didn’t work out.
Meanwhile, it appears Leon Rose cooled to the idea of trading for Russell Westbrook (thank God) and Chris Paul was reportedly more interested in playing next to a budding star in Devin Booker and for a team closer to where his son lives in Los Angeles. That left options like DJ Augustin and Jeff Teague, neither of whom ended up signing with the Knicks.
The trade market could still be an avenue to acquire a point guard, but for now, we are left with Elfrid Payton returning on a one-year, $4.7 million deal to make the decision on who should be the starter more difficult to figure out.
New York also added Austin Rivers on a three-year, team-friendly contract. While he is certainly someone who can act as a primary ball-handler, I am going to consider him in the guards rotation piece that will be released later this week.
In this article, I will focus on three players who could see the majority of their playing time at the point.
Knicks point guard rotation: Elfrid Payton
If you spent any time watching the Knicks last season, you probably still have nightmares of Elfrid Payton force-feeding the ball to Julius Randle so he could make a pointless spin move in the post while everyone else stood around and watched.
It is this image that left many fans groaning in displeasure when it was announced that Payton would be returning for the 2020-21 season.
For a Knicks’ lineup that is expected to feature two non-shooters in Mitchell Robinson and RJ Barrett, inserting a point guard who ranked in the bottom 2nd percent of the league in three-point shot frequency doesn’t seem like an ideal fit.
Payton didn’t take many threes (1.5 per game) and didn’t make many threes (20.3 percent).
What he did well was drive to the hoop: his 12.8 drives per game put him on par with Chris Paul (12.8) and Mike Conley (12.7) and Ricky Rubio (12.4). And he turned those drives into assist opportunities, ranking fifth, in between LeBron James and Luka Doncic, in assist percentage off drives.
The problem is his finishing ability. He shot only 55 percent around the rim last season (which ranks in the bottom third of the league among point guards). If he can improve that aspect of his game – and he has shown an ability to do that during stretches of his career – with some shooting around him, he can provide what you would want a lead guard to provide in creating shots for his teammates off dribble penetration.
He might not be fun for Knicks fans to watch, but he could be the best solution they have in certain lineups.
Knicks point guard rotation: Dennis Smith Jr.
Perhaps the only player Knicks fans are more down on than Elfrid Payton is Dennis Smith Jr. After a disastrous 2019-20 campaign, the former lottery pick will look to rebound under a new head coach in Tom Thibodeau.
Everyone knows Smith Jr. has the potential to be a microwave scorer, but can he do more than that? Is he simply a bench player who can provide you with instant offense when the mood strikes?
To be determined.
SNY reported earlier in the summer that Thibodeau liked Smith Jr.’s game coming out of college. Some believe with the right coaching, he could become a breakout candidate for the Knicks. And it’s now or never. The best case scenario might be that he starts the season strong and gives Leon Rose some value to offer teams in trade.
You could argue Smith Jr. is the only other lead guard on the depth chart besides Elfrid Payton. For that reason, he will get a chance, perhaps a starting one.
After beginning his NBA career as more of a combo guard, he hasn’t played much off the ball over the past two seasons. He is the prototypical example of a player who needs the ball in his hands to be himself. I expect Thibodeau to embrace that role for him and try to put him into situations where he can be successful.
Knicks point guard rotation: Frank Ntilikina
We could write one million articles about Frank Ntilikina and still have something to say, at least that’s what it has felt like since he was drafted 8th overall by Phil Jackson as a parting gift before he was fired.
Is Ntilikina a point guard? Is he better off the ball? Yes. And yes. That is what makes it both exciting and challenging in trying to find his perfect role on the Knicks.
On a more defined roster, it would be easy to slot Ntilikina into the open gap and let him flourish there. But on an open canvas, it has proven difficult for multiple coaching staffs to paint a picture that highlights his strengths in environments that aren’t always suitable for his game.
Frank is the opposite of Dennis Smith Jr: he doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be successful, he is almost never going to blow up a scoresheet, and his ability to play defense is what separates him from similar players.
For all of the intangibles Ntilikina provides, shooting will still be the X-factor in deciding rotation minutes. The Knicks need all of the perimeter spacing they can get. The 22-year-old has shown promise from the corner-three area of the court, but he needs to show more.
Of the three players listed in this article, Ntilikina is the best candidate to find minutes elsewhere on the court. However, an opening is there for him at point guard.
As he enters the final season of his rookie scale contract, it is time for him to take control of his own destiny and force his way into the starting lineup. He should be able to beat out Payton and Smith Jr., but will he?