The New York Knicks are banking on Tim Hardaway Jr. realizing his star potential. There’s still work to be done, but Hardaway Jr. has come a long way since 2013-14.
The New York Knicks have officially committed to a youth movement. Not only have the Knicks gone against the internal grain by valuing the NBA Draft, but general manager Steve Mills committed a hefty sum to 25-year-old shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr.
With the Knicks committed to the belief that Hardaway Jr. will justify the $71 million coming his way, it’s only rational to explore how rational an investment it was.
There’s no possible way to predict the future, but the past can be a fair indicator of what’s to come. In the curious case of Hardaway Jr., his past shows just how far he’s come in his four years in the Association.
Between his first two years with the Knicks and the two seasons that followed with the Atlanta Hawks, Hardaway Jr. has offered reason for intrigue.
This isn’t to say that the $71 million figure is justifiable; the justification will only come from Hardaway Jr.’s future performances on the court. The past paints a promising picture, however, and that can be proven statistically.
The question is: How has Tim Hardaway Jr. progressed over the course of his four-year career and what might his success indicate about his future with the New York Knicks?
Note: The slash lines listed consist of 2-point field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, and free throw percentage.
2013-14
Usage Rate: 18.0
Slash Line: .498/.363/.828
True Shooting Percentage: .554
Season Averages: 23.1 MPG, 10.2 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.5 SPG, 1.6 3PM
Per 36 Averages: 15.8 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.5 3-point field goals made
The New York Knicks selected Tim Hardaway Jr. at No. 24 overall in the 2013 NBA Draft. The selection followed his successful three-year career with the Michigan Wolverines, and it was quickly justified—perhaps the word of the day.
Behind the strength of his impressive instincts as a scorer, Hardaway Jr. was honored as a member of the 2013-14 All-Rookie First Team.
Hardaway Jr.’s ability to find the bottom of the net was displayed by his averages of 10.2 points per game and 15.8 points per 36 minutes. That includes his averages of 11.9 points per game and 15.9 points per 36 minutes in 30 appearances after the 2017 NBA All-Star Break.
Hardaway Jr. converted 130 3-point field goals overall on a career-best mark of 36.3 percent from beyond the arc.
The numbers were solid, but there were reasons for concern in 2013-14, as well. He shot well and scored at an intriguing level, but he struggled to create for his teammates and was generally inconsistent on defense.
The question is: How did Hardaway Jr. improve upon his flaws over the course of his next three seasons in the NBA?
2014-15
Usage Rate: 22.3
Slash Line: .435/.342/.801
True Shooting Percentage: .512
Season Averages: 24.0 MPG, 11.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.7 3PM
Per 36 Averages: 17.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 2.6 3-point field goals made
The 2014-15 NBA regular season was difficult for the New York Knicks. New York won a franchise-worst 17 games, lost Carmelo Anthony to a knee injury, and traded a number of its foundational pieces at various parts of the season.
Knowing the context of the situation, it remains fair to state that Hardaway Jr. experienced a sophomore slump in 2014-15—to an extent.
Hardaway Jr. shot 6.3 percent worse on 2-point field goals and 2.1 percent worst on 3-point field goals as a sophomore than he did as a freshman. That’s admittedly to be expected when one considers that his usage rate jumped from 18.0 percent to 22.3 percent.
He attempted just 2.2 more field goal attempts and 0.7 more 3-point field goal attempts per 36 minutes, however, which isn’t the most significant of increases.
What 2014-15 firmly displayed was just how ill-prepared Hardaway Jr. was for the role of a featured scorer. It also displayed how powerful his work ethic is, however, as he improved his assists per 36 minutes average by a healthy 1.4.
It was far from a perfect season, and it wasn’t even close to the last sophomore slump the NBA will witness, but Hardaway Jr. undeniably regressed.
2015-16
Usage Rate: 15.1
Slash Line: .537/.338/.893
True Shooting Percentage: .563
Season Averages: 16.9 MPG, 6.4 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.4 SPG, 0.9 3PM
Per 36 Averages: 13.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.0 3-point field goals made
After two seasons, the New York Knicks traded Tim Hardaway Jr. on the night of the 2015 NBA Draft. The deal netted the Knicks a promising young point guard in Jerian Grant, who was later traded to the Chicago Bulls for former MVP Derrick Rose.
As for Hardaway Jr., he split the 2015-16 season between the NBA with the Atlanta Hawks, and the D-League with the Canton Charge and Austin Spurs.
Hardaway Jr. appeared in 51 games for the Hawks, including the one outing he started. He set career-lows in points, rebounds, and 3-point field goals made per game, and shot a career-worst 33.8 percent from beyond the arc.
All things considered, it was a dreadful season by Hardaway Jr.—a dreadful season that played a significant role in his career-year in 2016-17.
Hardaway Jr. was humbled by his relegation to the D-League. He bounced back late in the season by averaging 16.0 points and 2.6 3-point field goals made per 36 minutes in 25 appearances after the 2016 All-Star Break.
In turn, he bounced back with a 2016-17 campaign that earned him the $71 million contract that New York recently signed him to.
2016-17
Usage Rate: 21.5
Slash Line: .537/.357/.766
True Shooting Percentage: .568
Season Averages: 27.3 MPG, 14.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 0.7 SPG, 1.9 3PM
Per 36 Averages: 19.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.5 3-point field goals made
The 2016-17 NBA regular season was a redemption campaign for Tim Hardaway Jr. The Atlanta Hawks thrust him into the role of a high-volume scorer, and he proceeded to put forth the best year of his professional career.
Hardaway Jr. was third on the 43-39 Hawks in field goal attempts per game, which offered proof that he can step up for a postseason-caliber team.
From a scoring perspective, Hardaway Jr. set new career-highs in points per game and points per 36 minutes. Hardaway Jr. also set new career-highs in field goals made, field goals attempted, 3-point field goals made, and 3-point field goals attempted.
Despite increasing the volume with which he scored in every per game way imaginable, he set a new career-high in true shooting percentage.
Hardaway Jr. also set new career-highs in rebounds, assists, and steals per 36 minutes. It was a strong display of how significantly he’s improved over the course of his four-year career, as well as a look at how strong his work ethic has become.
There’s no guaranteeing that this will translate to sustained NBA success, but it’s a promising sign that the 25-year-old is ready to embrace a bigger role in New York.
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Tim Hardaway Jr. may or may not live up to the hype, but the New York Knicks have invested in a player who’s willing to put the work in.