The Minnesota Timberwolves have rescinded the qualifying offer from Shabazz Muhammad. Should the New York Knicks make a run at Muhammad?
The New York Knicks are embracing a youth movement that projects to change the face of the organization. Kristaps Porzingis and Willy Hernangomez have All-Rookie First Team nods on their early résumés, and Frank Ntilikina was a Top 10 selection in the 2017 NBA Draft.
As the Knicks prepare to utilize free agency to facilitate that vision, a new option has surfaced for Steve Mills to consider in free agency.
New York has an intriguing core that’s been assembled via the NBA Draft. With Ntilikina at point guard, Porzingis at power forward, and Hernangomez at center, the Knicks are promising wing talent away from an essentially complete core—a promising wing who is now be available.
According to Chris Haynes of ESPN, the Minnesota Timberwolves have rescinded the qualifying offer from restricted free agent Shabazz Muhammad.
In what was a tough decision, Minnesota pulls QO from Shabazz Muhammad and he's now an unrestricted free agent, league sources tell ESPN.
— Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes) July 3, 2017
With Muhammad becoming an unrestricted free agent, the Knicks are likely to be a team in the running for his services.
Muhammad was selected at No. 14 overall in the 2017 NBA Draft. The 24-year-old has shown flashes of brilliance, but on a Timberwolves team that’s flush with perimeter talent, his opportunities have been scarce.
The question is: Should the New York Knicks grant Shabazz Muhammad the opportunity to make his name in a major market?
Pro: Scoring Instincts
Coming out of college, the primary strength working in Shabazz Muhammad’s favor was his scoring ability. He averaged 17.9 points per game and 23.2 points per 40 minutes during his lone season with the UCLA Bruins.
Since arriving in the NBA, Muhammad has maintained a strong scoring pace with a career average of 18.9 points per 36 minutes on a career slash line of .476/.323/.749.
Despite being more of an on-ball scorer, Muhammad managed to be efficient in an offense that rarely gave him the touches he needs. This past season, his usage rate sat at 20.1 percent, yet he managed to shoot .482/.336/.774.
20.1 percent isn’t a terribly low number, but the context is that Muhammad is an ISO scorer who didn’t have the luxury of picking his spots with so few touches coming his way.
Nevertheless, Muhammad managed to average 18.3 points per 36 minutes in 2016-17. He increased his 3-point field goal percentage from 28.9 percent in 2015-16 to 33.6 percent in 2016-17, and boosted his field goal percentage from 46.5 percent to 48.2 percent.
Muhammad has improved his 2-point field goal percentage in all four of his NBA seasons, and that steady improvement should appeal to the New York Knicks.
Con: Defensive Inconsistency
For as intriguing as Shabazz Muhammad may be as a scorer, he’s equally as underwhelming on defense. The physical tools are in place for effective defense against the two forward positions, but the results have been underwhelming.
If the New York Knicks decide to sign Muhammad, then general manager Steve Mills must do so with an understanding of the risk he’s taking.
Muhammad finished the 2016-17 NBA regular season at No. 70 amongst small forwards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus. 37 different small forwards recorded positive marks in Defensive RPM, yet Muhammad checked in at -3.19.
It was an accurate representation of the dreadful defense that Muhammad has played throughout his four-year NBA career.
It’s possible that Muhammad will be more inclined to defend once he settles into a system that gets him the touches he feels he deserves. It’s also worth noting that he’s 6’6″ with a 6’11” wingspan, which should enable him to defend both forward spots at an acceptable level.
Head coach Jeff Hornacek could help Muhammad find his defensive identity—much as he temporarily did with Gerald Green in Phoenix—but gambling on that transpiring is an admitted risk.
Pro: Athleticism
This is an admittedly broad statement, but the New York Knicks need athletes along the perimeter. While Shabazz Muhammad is far from a consistent defender, he fits the bill of what the organization needs at the 2 and 3 spots.
By signing Muhammad, the Knicks—No. 24 in fast break points per game—would be adding an athletic scorer who can consistently exploit the opposition in transition.
Muhammad has the lower and upper body strength to throw himself into defenders and emerge victorious. That’s an appealing reality when one considers the fact that New York needs a perimeter player who can consistently get to the rim.
That combination of power and explosiveness enabled Muhammad to shoot 67.1 percent in the restricted area in 2016-17—6.0 percent better than the league average.
Muhammad doesn’t drive quite as often as he’s capable of driving, but he makes a killing as a small forward in the low post. On the opposite end of the floor, the potential exists for Muhammad to utilize his athletic gifts to develop into a quality defender.
As evidenced by his career average of 5.1 free throw attempts per 36 minutes—context: limited touches—Muhammad has the physical tools to overwhelm opponents.
Con: Inconsistent Jump Shot
Shabazz Muhammad deserves credit for putting the work in to improve his jump shot. As previously alluded to, between 2015-16 and 2016-17, Muhammad improved his 3-point field goal percentage from .289 to .336.
Encouraging a sign as that may be, Muhammad still shot below 34 percent from beyond the arc and converted just 49 3-point field goals in 78 appearances.
Muhammad made 24 corner 3s on 40.7 percent shooting during the 2016-17 NBA regular season. That’s exceptional efficiency, albeit with a small sample size, but it’s also a sign of the issue with Muhammad’s outside shot.
Muhammad converted one unassisted 3-point field goal in all of 2016-17, and shot just 29.1 percent from above the break.
Overall, Muhammad shot a mere 32.4 percent on catch and shoot 3-point field goals. That admittedly isn’t his game, and he could improve as he receives more natural touches within the flow of the offense, but it’s a troubling sign.
Muhammad has the odd distinction of shooting better when he’s closely defended than when he’s open, which is a dangerous mindset to have in a motion offense.
Pro: Untapped Potential
The New York Knicks are building the future of the organization around 18-year-old Frank Ntilikina, 21-year-old Kristaps Porzingis, and 23-year-old Willy Hernangomez. With a youth movement in full effect, the Knicks are targeting promising young players with remaining upside.
Some may feel as though Shabazz Muhammad has already shown his true colors, but signing with New York would give him an opportunity to tap into his full potential.
Muhammad is a dynamic scoring threat who’s at his best with the ball in his hands. Whether he’s attacking in transition, taking his man off the bounce, going to the post, or knocking down a jump shot, it’s all about rhythm for players like Muhammad.
The fact that he managed to score with both volume and efficiency on a Minnesota team that limited his touches is a testament to how natural of a scorer he truly is.
Muhammad may have shot just 33.6 percent from beyond the arc in 2016-17, but he set a career-high in 3-point field goals made. He may have averaged less than one assist per 36 minutes, but he was rarely allowed to create for himself, let alone others.
Muhammad’s potential may or may not be realized in New York, but he has the tools to be a high-level scorer in the NBA.
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The question is: Will the New York Knicks be able to add Shabazz Muhammad to the expanding youth movement?