The New York Knicks are 23-32 exiting the All-Star Break. What must New York do to right the ship and reach the 2016 NBA Playoffs?
The New York Knicks are in an unenviable position. At 23-32 in a vastly improved Eastern Conference, the postseason is slipping out of the Knicks’ reach with an uneventful NBA Trade Deadline and an interim head coach influencing every second of play.
The question is, what must the Knicks do to right the ship before it’s too late?
Former head coach Derek Fisher told reporters that it doesn’t matter if New York makes the playoffs in 2016. He was wrong.
The Knicks have nothing to play for but the future, and the only way to adequately develop this group is to give them a taste of the playoffs. For what it’s worth, the supporting core of Langston Galloway, Jerian Grant, Kyle O’Quinn, Kristaps Porzingis, and Lance Thomas have played a combined zero career postseason minutes.
Porzingis has been a breakout star as a rookie, but postseason basketball is very different from the regular season.
Carmelo Anthony is 31 years old with a question mark of a medical report and a window that’s, debatably, closing. Every season spent outside of the postseason adds another one onto when Porzingis will be ready to help Anthony compete for a title.
This is desperation mode, folks. Here’s how New York can do the improbable.
Next: If All Else Fails
Honorable Mention: Develop the Future
Admittedly, this point of emphasis has absolutely nothing to do with the New York Knicks’ short-term goal of making the 2016 NBA Playoffs. Achieving this won’t make much of a difference unless the development process proves to be an overnight success.
Nevertheless, it’s something that must be done sooner than later.
Kristaps Porzingis is having an excellent rookie season, but the same can’t be said for Jerian Grant. Grant’s defensive instincts and athleticism have impressed, but he’s struggled with his jump shot and, thus, appears to have lost confidence in other facets of his game.
Even Porzingis has slowed up a bit due to the erratic nature of New York’s point guard play.
Other players New York must help develop are Langston Galloway, Kyle O’Quinn, and Derrick Williams. All three are 25 or younger, and each have mixed flashes of being long-term assets for the Knicks with troubling signs of inconsistency.
This may or may not help in the pursuit of the 2016 NBA Playoffs, but if the season proves to be lost, then developing the forces of tomorrow will be of the utmost importance.
Next: Stepping Up
5. Limiting Penetration + Elite Interior Defense
Leading up to the 2016 NBA Trade Deadline, a vast majority of fans and analysts expected the New York Knicks to make a deal for a point guard. Jose Calderon has played better than expected, and both Langston Galloway and Jerian Grant have potential, but the Knicks have trouble with consistency at the position.
Thus far, the biggest issue of all has been Calderon’s inability to keep opposing point guards in front of him.
Robin Lopez and Kristaps Porzingis have combined to create one of the most formidable defensive interiors in the NBA. That duo has led New York to a defensive field goal percentage at the rim of .474.
If that sounds good, it’s because it is; the Knicks rank No. 1 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage at the rim.
Promising as that may be, athletic point guards have given the Knicks plenty of trouble. Calderon struggles to stay in front of said contributors, and that inability to prevent penetration has forced Lopez and Porzingis into foul trouble on numerous occasions.
If New York is able to limit penetration and maintain an elite level of play along the defensive interior, it can make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.
Next: Attack!
4. Attack the Basket
One of the more ancient aspects of the Triangle Offense is the heavy emphasis on midrange jump shooting. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, specifically come the postseason, but it can lead to players being tentative in their attempts to attack the basket.
That’s exactly what’s plagued the New York Knicks throughout 2015-16.
According to NBA.com, the Knicks currently rank No. 28 in the NBA in points in the paint per game. That’s less about an inability to score points from close range than it is a genuine unwillingness to put the ball on the floor and attack the rim.
Thus far in 2015-16, New York is attempting just 15.3 drives per game—the single worst mark in the NBA.
Teams shouldn’t be placing a heavy emphasis on isolation basketball or individual runs at the hoop. What is unacceptable, however, is the fact that New York’s 15.3 drives per game are a healthy 3.7 less than the Golden State Warriors at No. 29 and 5.6 less than the Los Angeles Clippers at No. 28.
Until New York learns to shoot like Golden State or finds a point guard as brilliant as Chris Paul, it’ll need to be more aggressive in finding easy looks at the basket.
Next: The Misleading Statistic
3. Move the Ball with a Purpose
Who’s ready for the most misleading statistic in NBA history? Thus far in 2015-16, only one team is averaging a higher number of passes per game than the New York Knicks.
As anyone who consistently watches the Knicks play will tell you, that statistic fails to tell the story of how abhorrent the Knicks’ offense has been.
Despite ranking No. 2 in the NBA in passes made per game, the Knicks are No. 24 in the Association in assists per contest. New York is also No. 3 in isolation possessions, which is a sign of what the high volume of passes are leading to.
Rather than passing to find the open man, New York’s ball movement borders on obligatory and crosses into the territory of, “Let’s just get this back to Carmelo Anthony.”
Rather than passing and then going ISO with the shot clock winding down, the Knicks need to pass their teammates open. That’s something that great teams do, and New York’s inability to achieve greatness is why Phil Jackson‘s squad is nine games below .500.
Until the Knicks move the ball with a purpose, these passes will accomplish nothing but the delay of an inevitable offensive collapse in the fourth quarter.
Next: Healthy and Aggressive
2. Carmelo Anthony’s Health
The New York Knicks are paying Carmelo Anthony to be the face of the franchise. He’s making an average of $24,812,936 per season, which will still be a significant salary under a cap that’s projected to rise to roughly $90 million.
In order for New York to have any shot at the 2016 NBA Playoffs, Anthony must remain healthy and return to the level that made him a perennial All-NBA player.
Anthony is having his best season as a facilitator, but that’s occasionally been to the detriment of his scoring. It’s beyond acceptable for ‘Melo to be selfless, but there are times when Knicks fans have been pleading with Anthony to take over games.
For the most part, he hasn’t come through—and yes, injuries have played a major role in that.
Anthony’s been unable to maintain the elevation on his jump shot, and his patented second jump has hindered him down low. Even when that hasn’t been a problem, he’s settling for midrange jump shots instead of pounding it inside as he’s capable of doing.
A selfless and suddenly defensive-minded Anthony has been a sight to see, and that mentality must not be sacrificed, but he needs to be healthy and aggressive as a scorer for New York to make the playoffs.
Next: The Key Contributor
1. Arron Afflalo’s Consistency
Carmelo Anthony is the franchise player and Kristaps Porzingis is the star of the future. Langston Galloway is establishing himself as a player who’s built for the clutch moments, Jerian Grant has potential at point guard, and Robin Lopez is nothing if not steady at center.
When the Knicks win games, however, it’s Arron Afflalo whose performances can be tied directly into the result.
The Knicks are 15-8 when Afflalo shoots 44 percent or better from the field in 2015-16. When Afflalo is active and shoots worse than 44 percent, the Knicks are a shocking 4-20—and no, that is not a typo.
When Afflalo plays well, New York wins. When he doesn’t, it loses.
There aren’t many statistics more telling than one in which a team goes from 15-8 to 4-20. That’s good for a win percentage of .652 when Afflalo shoots 44 percent or better, and .167 when Afflalo’s field goal percentage dips below that mark.
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We can tell this story in a dozen different ways; the reality is, Afflalo is the key to New York winning and losing games. Thus, he’s the key to the Knicks making the playoffs.