With Conflicting Reports of David West to Knicks, Is He Even Worth It?

League source: David West is "very likely" to sign with the Knicks come FA. "He knew that before he chose not to opt in" with the Pacers.
— Jared Zwerling (@JaredZwerling) June 25, 2015

Oh my… how quickly events have changed in the past few days for the New York Knicks regarding free agent David West. First it was reported by Jared Zwerling of Bleacher Report that West is likely to become a Knick, then in a blink of an eye…Marc Berman of the New York Post reports West would not sign with New York because the Knicks are not title contenders.

"But an NBA source said West, at his age, is not coming to the Knicks because he wants to play for a team closer to title contention."

West opted out of his contract, choosing to decline his player option for 2015-16, as per Candance Buckner of The Indianapolis Star.

"David West has decided not to exercise the $12.6 million option of his contract for the 2015-16 season, league sources informed The Indianapolis Star on Wednesday."

With conflicting reports heading into free agency, would West be a good free agent for New York to go after.

This past season, West averaged 11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assist per game. The 11.7 points per game marked West’s least productive season in his career since blossoming in his third year and receiving over 20 minutes of playing time per game.

Jan 25, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Indiana Pacers forward David West (21) shoots a layup against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Indiana Pacers defeated the Orlando Magic 106-99. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

West is a mid-range assassin, doing most of his damage from 15-19 ft. Last season West attempted 40.23% of his shots came from this distance, as per NBA.com. West shot 48.9% from 15-19 ft. last season, which was a slight decline from 2013-2014; shooting 52.2% from 15-19 ft., as per NBA.com.

West has been steadily been increasing his range, improving his field goal percentage for three straight seasons from 20-24 ft. West shot 41.7% from 20-24 ft. in 2012-2013 (as per NBA.com), improving it ever so slightly to 43.1% in 2013-2014, and shot 47.8% from 20-24 ft. this past season.

West can help spread the floor out for Anthony with his shooting but will need a playmaker to get him the ball. NBA.com defines percent of field goals made assisted as the percentage of field goals made that are assisted by a teammate. West’s percent of field goals made assisted from within 15-19 ft. last season was 91.9%, and was 93.9% when within 20-24 ft. West is efficient from those areas of the court but needs someone to get him the basketball!

Anthony is a great one-on-one offensive talent but does not willingly create easy opportunity for others. The newly acquired rookie point guard Jerian Grant, Jose Calderon, or Langston Galloway will have to run pick-and-pops with West in order to keep the big man involved in the offense.

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West is also a capable playmaker from the power forward position, last season’s average of 3.4 assist per game marked the highest average in his career. In fact West has a higher assist percentage than Anthony. NBA.com defines assist percentage as the percent of teammate’s field goals that the players assisted. West’s assist percentage was 19.9% last season, as per NBA.com; while Anthony’s assist percentage was 16.1% last season, as per NBA.com.

The biggest issue with West is that he is getting a little long in the tooth; West turns 35 years old this August. West is well past his prime and opted out of his current contract with the Indiana Pacers, no matter what The Indianapolis Star quoted about West, he will want to recoup that money back and secure a long-term financially lucrative contract.

"“He has the passion for (basketball),” a source responded when asked about West’s wish list for his next destination. “He wants to play. … It’s going to be an intellectual decision.”West did not want to simply “stay for the money,” a source revealed."

As West ages, his body cannot function and move as quickly as it once did. West cannot scrap for the rebounds as he once did; declining in his ability to collect contested rebounds. West’s contested rebound percentage dropped 2.3% when the rebound was within 0-3 ft. from 2013-2014 (47.2% as per NBA.com) to this past season (44.9% as per NBA.com). The decline in rate of collecting contested rebounds declines drastically with the increase in distance, going from 25.4% when rebounds are 6-10 ft. distance in 2013-2014 to 18.7% this past season. When contested rebounds are 10+ feet distance, West dropped a shocking 17.4% this past season (5.7%) as compared to 2013-2014 (23.1%).

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As West ages and his decline in mobility increases, West’s once solid defense is becoming a concern. As per NBA.com Diff% which is defined as – The difference between the normal field goal percentage of a shooter through the season and the field goal percentage when the defensive player is guarding the shooter. A good defensive number will be negative because the defensive player is guarding the shooter. A good defensive number will be negative because the defensive player holds their opponent to a lower field goal percentage than normal. West is positive a 2.3 diff% in 2014-2015, a huge drop from the 2013-2014 season where he was a negative -5.2 diff%.

I figured maybe the difference maybe because the Pacers lost their defensive ace Paul George to a horrendous injury last summer and Indiana play great team defense, but the Pacers’ defense barely budged. Indiana while not the top in the league in defense like in 2013-2014; causing opponents to shoot 42% from the field as per NBA.com, was still top three this past season; forcing opponents to shoot at 43.5% from the field as per NBA.com. So West’s decline in diff% could be a real major concern.

The big elephant in the room and most important question of all is, how much will it cost to lure West over to New York. According to Marc Berman of the New York Post, not much…

"Desperate for tough forwards, a new name to surface is Pacers power forward David West, who surprisingly opted out of his contract this past week that would have paid him $12.5 million. West, 35, could be a great short-term fix and perhaps be had for a starting salary of $9 million across three years."

Now $9 million across three years would be phenomenal but those numbers just does not make sense…why would West opt out of a $12.5 million contract this upcoming season to only earn $9 million over three years… It would make way more sense if it was a three year contract of $9 million per year, securing a financially stable long-term deal. Now if it is $27 million over three years…I am out…no thank you…West is way past his prime and is in decline. Now if the contract was maybe closer to $6 million per year that is a price worth West’s leadership and skills.

Bottom line New York should not over spend to get West via free agency this summer.

Especially with another downside to acquiring West being that he would take away minutes from Kristaps Porziņģis, whom the Knicks invested a fourth overall pick on. If anything New York should throw Porziņģis to the wolves next season and let him learn trial by fire. Allow Porziņģis to make as many mistakes as possible in his rookie year, although… a great veteran such as West can show Porziņģis the ropes of being a professional athlete. West can show Porziņģis what it truly means to be an NBA player day in and day out. Depending on the price, West’s leadership and mentorship of Porziņģis might be worth it but it will all depend on the price.

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